0x8792…4174

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x879247bf7570a40d193dd3bb9118820e0b194174
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+18.0pp

ROI

+32%

Win rate

90% @ 72.4¢

Brier

0.108

Resolved

540

Avg size

$171

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	64% (49/77)	+35%	77
Politics	88% (15/17)	-12%	17
Geopolitics	100% (11/11)	+25%	11
Tech	100% (1/1)	+12%	1
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other77 bets
Hit rate
64% (49/77)
ROI
+35%
Politics17 bets
Hit rate
88% (15/17)
ROI
-12%
Geopolitics11 bets
Hit rate
100% (11/11)
ROI
+25%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+12%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

71% hit · 76/107

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 8?	Yes	$98	47.8¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$17	79.2¢	Won
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	$257	85.0¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$5.4k	84.5¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	$1.3k	76.3¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?	Yes	$1.4k	84.2¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$79	69.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$128	66.0¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$37.0k	61.1¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$348	87.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$4.9k	55.3¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$6	47.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$306	81.7¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?	No	$172	86.0¢	Won
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?	No	$176	80.9¢	Won
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 4, 2026?	No	$82	44.0¢	Won
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 4, 2026?	Yes	$77	42.6¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$508	80.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	Yes	$760	62.9¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	No	$1.4k	60.6¢	Lost
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	No	$1.2k	88.0¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?	No	$188	18.0¢	Won
Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	No	$236	65.4¢	Won
Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	Yes	$3	64.0¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	No	$1.4k	88.2¢	Won
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?	No	$5.9k	79.6¢	Won
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?	No	$2.8k	85.9¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	Yes	$22	59.0¢	Won
Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	$73	81.0¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?	No	$925	74.0¢	Won
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	No	$686	56.5¢	Won
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	No	$20.9k	80.7¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	$587	29.9¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?	No	$957	80.1¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?	No	$267	88.4¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?	No	$414	85.3¢	Won
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?	No	$106	16.8¢	Won
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	No	$173	73.9¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	No	$444	86.5¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?	Yes	$176	79.9¢	Won
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 5?	Yes	$298	74.1¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 1?	Yes	$8	79.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 30?	Yes	$58	80.2¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 2?	No	$83	89.3¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$3.8k	81.6¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on July 2?	No	$116	62.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$38	89.7¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 29?	No	$9	85.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or below on May 30?	Yes	$4	9.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 30?	No	$9	85.1¢	Lost

Israel military action against Lebanon on September 8?Won
Yes$98 @ 47.8¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$17 @ 79.2¢
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Won
Yes$257 @ 85.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
No$5.4k @ 84.5¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Won
No$1.3k @ 76.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 84.2¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$79 @ 69.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$128 @ 66.0¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$37.0k @ 61.1¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Won
No$348 @ 87.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$4.9k @ 55.3¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$6 @ 47.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$306 @ 81.7¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?Won
No$172 @ 86.0¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?Won
No$176 @ 80.9¢
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 4, 2026?Won
No$82 @ 44.0¢
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 4, 2026?Lost
Yes$77 @ 42.6¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$508 @ 80.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Won
Yes$760 @ 62.9¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Lost
No$1.4k @ 60.6¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Won
No$1.2k @ 88.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?Won
No$188 @ 18.0¢
Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?Won
No$236 @ 65.4¢
Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?Lost
Yes$3 @ 64.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?Won
No$1.4k @ 88.2¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?Won
No$5.9k @ 79.6¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?Won
No$2.8k @ 85.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Won
Yes$22 @ 59.0¢
Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Won
No$73 @ 81.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?Won
No$925 @ 74.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Won
No$686 @ 56.5¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?Won
No$20.9k @ 80.7¢
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Lost
No$587 @ 29.9¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?Won
No$957 @ 80.1¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?Won
No$267 @ 88.4¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?Won
No$414 @ 85.3¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Won
No$106 @ 16.8¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Won
No$173 @ 73.9¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?Won
No$444 @ 86.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?Won
Yes$176 @ 79.9¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 5?Won
Yes$298 @ 74.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 1?Lost
Yes$8 @ 79.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 30?Won
Yes$58 @ 80.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 2?Won
No$83 @ 89.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$3.8k @ 81.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on July 2?Lost
No$116 @ 62.0¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$38 @ 89.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 29?Won
No$9 @ 85.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or below on May 30?Lost
Yes$4 @ 9.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 30?Lost
No$9 @ 85.1¢

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