0x8792…4174

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Other152 bets

  Hit rate

  58% (88/152)

  ROI

  +22%

• Politics88 bets

  Hit rate

  80% (70/88)

  ROI

  +13%

• Geopolitics87 bets

  Hit rate

  85% (74/87)

  ROI

  +26%

• Tech1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +12%

• Sports1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +20%

• Science1 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/1)

  ROI

  -100%

• Will Donald Trump publicly insult Masoud Pezeshkian by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$9 @ 98.9¢
• Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$88 @ 93.0¢
• Houthis capture Taiz city by October 31?Won
  No$166 @ 83.2¢
• Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by October 31?Won
  No$22 @ 80.8¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1?Won
  Yes$56 @ 88.3¢
• Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa by October 31?Won
  No$96 @ 96.0¢
• Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 31?Won
  No$5 @ 81.0¢
• Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
  Yes$1.4k @ 95.0¢
• Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
  Yes$1.5k @ 73.0¢
• Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Won
  No$584 @ 73.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Won
  Yes$146 @ 73.0¢
• Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$2 @ 99.0¢
• Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Won
  Yes$1.3k @ 95.9¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?Won
  No$721 @ 94.0¢
• Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 26?Lost
  Yes$27 @ 68.0¢
• Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 27?Won
  No$101 @ 61.0¢
• Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 27?Lost
  Yes$34 @ 55.8¢
• Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 12?Won
  Yes$33 @ 78.0¢
• Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 8?Won
  Yes$148 @ 87.5¢
• Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 11?Won
  Yes$25 @ 79.6¢
• Will UKMTO publish 4-7 notices between October 26-November 1?Won
  No$10 @ 99.0¢
• Will UKMTO publish 8-11 notices between October 26-November 1?Won
  Yes$54 @ 94.9¢
• U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?Won
  Yes$86 @ 72.0¢
• Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 31?Won
  Yes$45 @ 97.0¢
• Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?Won
  No$19 @ 92.9¢
• Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?Won
  No$1.4k @ 88.2¢
• Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?Lost
  Yes$28 @ 70.5¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$71 @ 89.0¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$394 @ 84.0¢
• Will Trump meet with Javier Milei by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$2.3k @ 83.9¢
• Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Won
  No$14.5k @ 60.5¢
• Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$96 @ 89.9¢
• Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)Won
  No$191 @ 69.8¢
• Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$15 @ 96.0¢
• Will Iran target Iraq by October 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$102 @ 95.4¢
• Will Trump meet with Miguel Díaz-Canel by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$104 @ 90.6¢
• Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$1.8k @ 90.0¢
• Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Won
  No$5.2k @ 63.8¢
• Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$30 @ 98.9¢
• Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$30 @ 98.6¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$73 @ 73.0¢
• Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$184 @ 89.2¢
• Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$227 @ 89.0¢
• US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
  Yes$42 @ 83.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?Won
  Yes$47 @ 87.0¢
• Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 6?Won
  Yes$91 @ 87.9¢
• Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Won
  Yes$23 @ 53.0¢
• Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 18?Won
  Yes$108 @ 83.3¢
• Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?Won
  Yes$88 @ 83.0¢
• Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 22?Won
  Yes$57 @ 84.6¢

Current positions

• Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$14.1k @ 65.5¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
  No$12.6k @ 83.7¢
• Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
  No$7.6k @ 86.0¢
• Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Politics
  Yes$5.6k @ 80.3¢
• Iran leadership change by November 30?Politics
  No$5.3k @ 92.0¢
• Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$3.7k @ 77.2¢
• Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?Politics
  No$2.9k @ 80.7¢
• Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$2.8k @ 73.2¢
• Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?Politics
  No$2.7k @ 81.2¢
• Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026?Politics
  Yes$2.3k @ 75.9¢
• Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin by November 30, 2026?Politics
  Yes$2.1k @ 83.3¢
• Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?Politics
  No$2.1k @ 71.3¢
• Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy by November 30, 2026?Politics
  No$2.0k @ 86.6¢
• Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$2.0k @ 66.0¢
• Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 26-November 1?Geopolitics
  No$1.7k @ 85.7¢
• Will there be between 20 and 24 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?Geopolitics
  No$1.5k @ 85.1¢
• Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping by November 30?Politics
  Yes$1.4k @ 93.1¢
• Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$1.2k @ 85.2¢
• US x Yemen ceasefire continues through November 30?Politics
  Yes$1.2k @ 87.5¢
• Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?Politics
  No$1.1k @ 76.6¢
• Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?Politics
  No$950 @ 60.1¢
• Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by November 30, 2026?Politics
  Yes$902 @ 95.0¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?Geopolitics
  Yes$870 @ 87.0¢
• Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Business
  Yes$848 @ 84.1¢
• Will Trump meet with Javier Milei by November 30, 2026?Politics
  No$843 @ 86.5¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$820 @ 82.0¢
• Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?Politics
  No$819 @ 83.0¢
• Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu by November 30, 2026?Politics
  No$804 @ 63.9¢
• Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Politics
  Yes$804 @ 81.2¢
• Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 15?Geopolitics
  No$732 @ 86.5¢