0x86d6…8a05

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x86d6a4fb2f71531ee5c639fce92ed440914e8a05
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+15.9pp

ROI

+110%

Win rate

44% @ 28.2¢

Brier

0.297

Resolved

136

Avg size

$99

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	48% (15/31)	+117%	31
Politics	20% (1/5)	+17%	5

Other31 bets
Hit rate
48% (15/31)
ROI
+117%
Politics5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
+17%

Track record

44% hit · 16/36

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	Yes	$91	3.5¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 7, 2026?	Yes	$91	86.2¢	Won
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	$61	58.0¢	Lost
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	Yes	$2.9k	33.6¢	Lost
Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election?	Yes	$1000	83.0¢	Won
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?	Yes	$386	37.8¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$532	38.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	Yes	$384	17.5¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$162	81.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$494	14.5¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	$137	24.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$827	36.0¢	Won
Will the US seize an Iran-linked tanker by Feb 28?	Yes	$93	31.0¢	Won
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$425	20.7¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?	Yes	$39	1.3¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$599	63.0¢	Won
US downs another Iranian drone by February 28?	Yes	$520	27.1¢	Won
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?	Yes	$149	22.1¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	Yes	$1000	17.0¢	Won
Will Kamala win New York by 10+ points?	Yes	$432	80.0¢	Won
Will Iran strike Iraq in March?	Yes	$42	78.2¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	Yes	$1.0k	40.3¢	Won
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$244	86.5¢	Lost
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?	Yes	$24	1.5¢	Lost
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$20	10.0¢	Lost
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	$89	44.3¢	Won
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?	Yes	$172	50.0¢	Lost
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	No	$184	16.7¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?	Yes	$40	4.0¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by March 31?	Yes	$502	32.0¢	Lost
Trump wins every swing state?	No	$100	35.0¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	Yes	$294	5.4¢	Won
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?	No	$4	76.0¢	Lost
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?	Yes	$87	87.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?	Yes	$193	38.5¢	Lost
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$58	85.0¢	Lost

US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$91 @ 3.5¢
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 7, 2026?Won
Yes$91 @ 86.2¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Lost
Yes$61 @ 58.0¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$2.9k @ 33.6¢
Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election?Won
Yes$1000 @ 83.0¢
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?Lost
Yes$386 @ 37.8¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$532 @ 38.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 14?Lost
Yes$384 @ 17.5¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$162 @ 81.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$494 @ 14.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Lost
No$137 @ 24.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$827 @ 36.0¢
Will the US seize an Iran-linked tanker by Feb 28?Won
Yes$93 @ 31.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$425 @ 20.7¢
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?Lost
Yes$39 @ 1.3¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$599 @ 63.0¢
US downs another Iranian drone by February 28?Won
Yes$520 @ 27.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$149 @ 22.1¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Won
Yes$1000 @ 17.0¢
Will Kamala win New York by 10+ points?Won
Yes$432 @ 80.0¢
Will Iran strike Iraq in March?Won
Yes$42 @ 78.2¢
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 40.3¢
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$244 @ 86.5¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?Lost
Yes$24 @ 1.5¢
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 10.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Won
Yes$89 @ 44.3¢
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?Lost
Yes$172 @ 50.0¢
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?Won
No$184 @ 16.7¢
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?Lost
Yes$40 @ 4.0¢
Iran leadership change by March 31?Lost
Yes$502 @ 32.0¢
Trump wins every swing state?Lost
No$100 @ 35.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Won
Yes$294 @ 5.4¢
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 76.0¢
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?Won
Yes$87 @ 87.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?Lost
Yes$193 @ 38.5¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
No$58 @ 85.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	—	Yes	$532	38.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?	—	Yes	$149	22.1¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$58	85.0¢
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$20	10.0¢

US forces enter Iran by March 31?—
Yes$532 @ 38.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?—
Yes$149 @ 22.1¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$58 @ 85.0¢
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?—
Yes$20 @ 10.0¢