0x860d…6071

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x860d81da0e4f6ddfc9635b6c6b26316505a26071
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.6pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

48% @ 45.8¢

Brier

0.177

Resolved

2717

Avg size

$22

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	57% (292/515)	+13%	515
Sports	58% (144/249)	-61%	249
Politics	56% (102/181)	+62%	181
Geopolitics	62% (16/26)	-65%	26
Tech	60% (6/10)	+24%	10
Economy	100% (4/4)	+20%	4
Culture	100% (2/2)	+55%	2

Other515 bets
Hit rate
57% (292/515)
ROI
+13%
Sports249 bets
Hit rate
58% (144/249)
ROI
-61%
Politics181 bets
Hit rate
56% (102/181)
ROI
+62%
Geopolitics26 bets
Hit rate
62% (16/26)
ROI
-65%
Tech10 bets
Hit rate
60% (6/10)
ROI
+24%
Economy4 bets
Hit rate
100% (4/4)
ROI
+20%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+55%

Track record

57% hit · 566/987

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30?	Yes	$10	48.6¢	Won
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-09-24?	No	$3	57.0¢	Lost
Japan vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	Under	$3	51.0¢	Lost
Japan vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5	Under	$7	74.0¢	Lost
Will Uruguay win on 2026-09-24?	No	$4	82.0¢	Won
Will Japan win on 2026-09-24?	Yes	$1	56.0¢	Won
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	$1	48.0¢	Lost
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-04-11?	No	$1	80.0¢	Won
Will Amed Sportif win on 2026-08-24?	Yes	$98	31.7¢	Lost
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-04-09?	Yes	$1	30.0¢	Lost
Will Petro mention Hitler again by June 30?	No	$6	0.8¢	Lost
Kocaelispor vs. Amed Sportif: O/U 3.5	Under	$16	79.0¢	Won
Will Lionel Messi record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$81	66.2¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by May 31, 2026?	No	$1	56.0¢	Lost
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$10	77.0¢	Won
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	$1	84.0¢	Won
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	No	$10	64.6¢	Lost
Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 80,000 and 90,000 voters?	No	$1	71.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$10	29.4¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$21	69.7¢	Won
James Comey charges dropped by May 31?	No	$1	87.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	No	$31	88.3¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	$41	75.3¢	Won
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?	Yes	$1	80.8¢	Won
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5	Under	$5	79.0¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	No	$3	38.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Tax" 10+ times during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?	Yes	$2	86.0¢	Won
Will White House post 80-99 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.9¢	Lost
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$2	20.0¢	Lost
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5	Over	$1	86.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 4?	No	$1	87.0¢	Won
Will Brian Poindexter be the Democratic nominee for OH-07?	Yes	$1	85.0¢	Won
Spread: Coventry City FC (-1.5)	Hull City AFC	$5	73.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "TrumpRX" or "TrumpRX Dot Gov" in May?	Yes	$1	81.0¢	Won
Will Bayern Munich win on 2026-07-30?	No	$4	2.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $90–$100 on April 8?	Yes	$3	85.0¢	Won
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 13, 2026?	Yes	$12	7.4¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	$2	70.0¢	Won
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$22	20.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?	Yes	$91	36.5¢	Won
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 0% and 5%?	Yes	$9	11.1¢	Lost
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	$11	86.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$13	25.3¢	Lost
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Under	$20	50.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$9	71.7¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?	Yes	$1	32.0¢	Lost
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30?	Yes	$2	4.0¢	Lost
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5	Over	$3	58.3¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce Harmeet Dhillon as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	Yes	$1	9.2¢	Lost
Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?	No	$2	77.0¢	Won

U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30?Won
Yes$10 @ 48.6¢
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-09-24?Lost
No$3 @ 57.0¢
Japan vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5Lost
Under$3 @ 51.0¢
Japan vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5Lost
Under$7 @ 74.0¢
Will Uruguay win on 2026-09-24?Won
No$4 @ 82.0¢
Will Japan win on 2026-09-24?Won
Yes$1 @ 56.0¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?Lost
No$1 @ 48.0¢
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-04-11?Won
No$1 @ 80.0¢
Will Amed Sportif win on 2026-08-24?Lost
Yes$98 @ 31.7¢
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-04-09?Lost
Yes$1 @ 30.0¢
Will Petro mention Hitler again by June 30?Lost
No$6 @ 0.8¢
Kocaelispor vs. Amed Sportif: O/U 3.5Won
Under$16 @ 79.0¢
Will Lionel Messi record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$81 @ 66.2¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 56.0¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$10 @ 77.0¢
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?Won
No$1 @ 84.0¢
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?Lost
No$10 @ 64.6¢
Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 80,000 and 90,000 voters?Won
No$1 @ 71.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$10 @ 29.4¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$21 @ 69.7¢
James Comey charges dropped by May 31?Won
No$1 @ 87.0¢
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026?Won
No$31 @ 88.3¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Won
No$41 @ 75.3¢
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?Won
Yes$1 @ 80.8¢
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5Won
Under$5 @ 79.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Lost
No$3 @ 38.9¢
Will Trump say "Tax" 10+ times during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?Won
Yes$2 @ 86.0¢
Will White House post 80-99 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.9¢
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?Lost
Yes$2 @ 20.0¢
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5Won
Over$1 @ 86.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 4?Won
No$1 @ 87.0¢
Will Brian Poindexter be the Democratic nominee for OH-07?Won
Yes$1 @ 85.0¢
Spread: Coventry City FC (-1.5)Won
Hull City AFC$5 @ 73.0¢
Will Trump say "TrumpRX" or "TrumpRX Dot Gov" in May?Won
Yes$1 @ 81.0¢
Will Bayern Munich win on 2026-07-30?Lost
No$4 @ 2.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $90–$100 on April 8?Won
Yes$3 @ 85.0¢
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$12 @ 7.4¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 70.0¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$22 @ 20.9¢
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$91 @ 36.5¢
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 0% and 5%?Lost
Yes$9 @ 11.1¢
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
No$11 @ 86.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$13 @ 25.3¢
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5Won
Under$20 @ 50.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$9 @ 71.7¢
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 32.0¢
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.0¢
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Won
Over$3 @ 58.3¢
Will Donald Trump announce Harmeet Dhillon as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 9.2¢
Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?Won
No$2 @ 77.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1.6k	8.1¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$1.4k	38.0¢
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Sports	Yes	$438	4.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$349	69.8¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$230	4.6¢
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$97	1.9¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$88	17.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$83	83.5¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$80	16.0¢
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?	Sports	Yes	$79	7.9¢
AI data center in space by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$76	76.0¢
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$75	75.0¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Politics	No	$75	74.7¢
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$64	3.2¢
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$53	53.5¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$45	30.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$41	41.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$40	80.6¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Politics	No	$39	78.0¢
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Politics	No	$39	77.0¢
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$38	75.1¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$37	74.8¢
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series?	Sports	Yes	$34	6.9¢
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting?	Economy	Yes	$26	85.7¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Politics	Yes	$24	81.0¢
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Sports	Yes	$22	4.5¢
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series?	Sports	Yes	$22	4.4¢
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Tech	No	$22	73.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$17	86.0¢
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Sports	Yes	$15	3.1¢

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1.6k @ 8.1¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$1.4k @ 38.0¢
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?Sports
Yes$438 @ 4.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$349 @ 69.8¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$230 @ 4.6¢
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$97 @ 1.9¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$88 @ 17.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$83 @ 83.5¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$80 @ 16.0¢
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?Sports
Yes$79 @ 7.9¢
AI data center in space by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$76 @ 76.0¢
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$75 @ 75.0¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
No$75 @ 74.7¢
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$64 @ 3.2¢
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Politics
Yes$53 @ 53.5¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?Politics
Yes$45 @ 30.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$41 @ 41.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$40 @ 80.6¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
No$39 @ 78.0¢
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
No$39 @ 77.0¢
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$38 @ 75.1¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$37 @ 74.8¢
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series?Sports
Yes$34 @ 6.9¢
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting?Economy
Yes$26 @ 85.7¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Politics
Yes$24 @ 81.0¢
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship?Sports
Yes$22 @ 4.5¢
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series?Sports
Yes$22 @ 4.4¢
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?Tech
No$22 @ 73.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?Geopolitics
No$17 @ 86.0¢
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?Sports
Yes$15 @ 3.1¢