0x85e7…5e49

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x85e7e44e1b2eda0e6de42ad5c8c25f2c9daf5e49
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.4pp

ROI

+18%

Win rate

56% @ 44.6¢

Brier

0.079

Resolved

166

Avg size

$24

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	38% (3/8)	-14%	8
Other	63% (5/8)	+47%	8
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+70%	1

Politics8 bets
Hit rate
38% (3/8)
ROI
-14%
Other8 bets
Hit rate
63% (5/8)
ROI
+47%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+70%

Track record

53% hit · 9/17

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	Yes	$495	55.5¢	Won
Canada recession before 2027?	Yes	$190	39.0¢	Won
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the July interest rate announcement?	Yes	$5	2.7¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting?	Yes	$90	4.6¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	No	$220	89.8¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$15	27.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$133	31.8¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$160	58.7¢	Won
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$399	81.5¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$846	70.2¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	$15	28.0¢	Lost
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	$223	8.2¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	Yes	$190	49.4¢	Won
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$50	18.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	No	$230	82.6¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	$657	9.8¢	Lost
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	Yes	$35	10.3¢	Lost

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?Won
Yes$495 @ 55.5¢
Canada recession before 2027?Won
Yes$190 @ 39.0¢
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the July interest rate announcement?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.7¢
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting?Lost
Yes$90 @ 4.6¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Won
No$220 @ 89.8¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$15 @ 27.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$133 @ 31.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$160 @ 58.7¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$399 @ 81.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$846 @ 70.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Lost
Yes$15 @ 28.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?Lost
Yes$223 @ 8.2¢
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Won
Yes$190 @ 49.4¢
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 18.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Won
No$230 @ 82.6¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?Lost
Yes$657 @ 9.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?Lost
Yes$35 @ 10.3¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$338	12.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Geopolitics	No	$260	84.4¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$224	82.5¢
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$170	71.9¢
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$160	35.8¢
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the July interest rate announcement?	Politics	Yes	$90	14.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	Politics	No	$57	54.3¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$29	3.9¢
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$20	23.1¢
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$15	9.7¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$14	13.9¢
Conservatives flip Liberals for Canada Seats Polls in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	5.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22?	Politics	Yes	$5	11.7¢

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$338 @ 12.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
No$260 @ 84.4¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$224 @ 82.5¢
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$170 @ 71.9¢
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?Politics
Yes$160 @ 35.8¢
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the July interest rate announcement?Politics
Yes$90 @ 14.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Politics
No$57 @ 54.3¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Politics
Yes$29 @ 3.9¢
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?Politics
Yes$20 @ 23.1¢
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?Politics
Yes$15 @ 9.7¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
Yes$14 @ 13.9¢
Conservatives flip Liberals for Canada Seats Polls in 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 5.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22?Politics
Yes$5 @ 11.7¢