0x85a8…9281

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Other40 bets

  Hit rate

  63% (25/40)

  ROI

  -2%

• Politics34 bets

  Hit rate

  76% (26/34)

  ROI

  +20%

• Geopolitics12 bets

  Hit rate

  92% (11/12)

  ROI

  +0%

• Sports1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +3%

• Culture1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +12%

• Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Lost
  No$695 @ 87.8¢
• Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 17, 2026?Won
  No$97 @ 92.5¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?Won
  Yes$3.1k @ 83.0¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?Won
  Yes$1.5k @ 89.6¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Won
  Yes$1.3k @ 62.9¢
• Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?Lost
  No$152 @ 76.0¢
• Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026?Lost
  No$428 @ 75.8¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Won
  Yes$1.0k @ 34.4¢
• Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 24, 2026?Won
  No$64 @ 78.4¢
• Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Lost
  No$464 @ 71.4¢
• Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?Won
  No$480 @ 87.4¢
• Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?Lost
  No$965 @ 85.3¢
• Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
  No$9.8k @ 97.5¢
• Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?Lost
  No$1.7k @ 86.3¢
• Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Lost
  No$57 @ 82.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
  No$3.8k @ 61.0¢
• Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?Won
  No$819 @ 87.3¢
• Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?Won
  No$716 @ 88.4¢
• Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10?Won
  No$1.6k @ 96.0¢
• Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?Lost
  No$584 @ 85.3¢
• Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?Won
  No$443 @ 85.4¢
• Iran successfully targets shipping on July 16?Won
  No$872 @ 89.6¢
• Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?Lost
  No$365 @ 86.4¢
• Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 28?Won
  No$316 @ 88.0¢
• Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?Won
  No$548 @ 85.6¢
• US bank failure by July 31?Lost
  No$249 @ 81.7¢
• Israel closes its airspace by July 7?Won
  No$5.0k @ 97.1¢
• No one announced as next James Bond?Won
  Yes$1.3k @ 88.9¢
• Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7?Lost
  No$16 @ 84.0¢
• Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
  No$4.4k @ 75.5¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
  No$6.3k @ 91.8¢
• Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?Won
  Yes$2.1k @ 98.0¢
• Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
  No$11 @ 78.0¢
• Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Won
  No$2.4k @ 89.0¢
• Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?Lost
  No$1.2k @ 21.4¢
• Iran full airspace closure by June 30?Won
  No$1.3k @ 86.3¢
• Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?Lost
  No$1 @ 2.4¢
• Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Won
  No$878 @ 87.8¢
• Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?Won
  No$2.6k @ 88.1¢
• Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?Won
  No$69 @ 87.4¢
• Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Lost
  No$739 @ 57.2¢
• Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Won
  Yes$500 @ 60.4¢
• US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Won
  No$1.7k @ 85.3¢
• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?Lost
  Yes$40 @ 0.9¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Lost
  No$2.0k @ 73.1¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
  Yes$6.5k @ 48.2¢
• Iran closes its airspace by June 8?Lost
  No$1.4k @ 50.8¢
• Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Won
  Yes$376 @ 59.7¢
• Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Won
  No$4.0k @ 87.8¢
• Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
  No$5.5k @ 88.7¢

Current positions

• Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?—
  No$11.2k @ 46.3¢
• Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Politics
  No$10.0k @ 67.5¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?—
  No$7.0k @ 59.8¢
• Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?—
  No$7.0k @ 80.7¢
• Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?Politics
  No$5.9k @ 37.9¢
• Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
  No$5.4k @ 31.3¢
• Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?—
  No$4.8k @ 46.8¢
• Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Geopolitics
  No$2.5k @ 75.4¢
• Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?—
  No$2.4k @ 66.3¢
• Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?—
  No$2.2k @ 80.2¢
• US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$1.9k @ 62.9¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?—
  No$565 @ 91.9¢
• U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30?—
  No$549 @ 62.5¢
• Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?—
  No$486 @ 57.2¢
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before 2027?Politics
  No$264 @ 85.8¢
• Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026?—
  No$200 @ 60.1¢
• IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?—
  No$166 @ 82.8¢
• Will no listed leader be out before 2027?—
  No$49 @ 41.0¢
• Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?—
  Yes$35 @ 68.0¢
• Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?—
  No$33 @ 65.4¢
• Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by December 31?Politics
  No$22 @ 43.6¢
• Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?—
  Yes$2 @ 2.1¢