← Smart money
0x85a8…9281
ProfitableEdge
-18.6pp
ROI
+48%
Win rate
37% @ 55.1¢
Brier
0.317
Resolved
63
Avg size
$178
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 50% (2/4) | +48% | 4 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (1/1) | +14% | 1 |
- Politics4 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (2/4)
- ROI
- +48%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +14%
Track record
60% hit · 3/5| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? | No | $2.6k | 88.1¢ | Won |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? | No | $69 | 87.4¢ | Won |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? | Yes | $40 | 0.9¢ | Lost |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | $2.0k | 73.1¢ | Lost |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Yes | $6.5k | 48.2¢ | Won |
- No$2.6k @ 88.1¢
- No$69 @ 87.4¢
- Yes$40 @ 0.9¢
- No$2.0k @ 73.1¢
- Yes$6.5k @ 48.2¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
- No$7.3k @ 89.4¢
- No$6.7k @ 94.1¢
- Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?GeopoliticsNo$5.7k @ 91.3¢
- No$5.5k @ 88.2¢
- No$5.0k @ 35.2¢
- No$4.9k @ 86.6¢
- No$4.8k @ 87.2¢
- Yes$3.9k @ 18.5¢
- No$3.7k @ 93.2¢
- Yes$3.1k @ 44.0¢
- No$2.5k @ 88.0¢
- No$2.2k @ 91.4¢
- No$2.1k @ 86.2¢
- No$2.0k @ 91.7¢
- No$1.9k @ 88.1¢
- No$1.8k @ 86.0¢
- No$1.8k @ 76.7¢
- No$1.5k @ 90.5¢
- No$1.4k @ 95.0¢
- Yes$1.3k @ 88.9¢
- No$1.3k @ 86.3¢
- No$1.2k @ 95.1¢
- No$1.1k @ 93.0¢
- No$1.1k @ 94.8¢
- No$687 @ 58.4¢
- U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30?GeopoliticsNo$639 @ 94.3¢
- No$613 @ 96.4¢
- Starmer out by October 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$569 @ 16.3¢
- No$250 @ 12.5¢
- No$207 @ 89.0¢