0x854d…deb0

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x854dd4db9230143f19bccfd6850aacb6facbdeb0
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.8pp

ROI

+5%

Win rate

35% @ 31.3¢

Brier

0.189

Resolved

1537

Avg size

$233

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	43% (139/321)	+12%	321
Sports	20% (3/15)	-59%	15
Politics	29% (2/7)	-51%	7

Other321 bets
Hit rate
43% (139/321)
ROI
+12%
Sports15 bets
Hit rate
20% (3/15)
ROI
-59%
Politics7 bets
Hit rate
29% (2/7)
ROI
-51%

Track record

42% hit · 144/343

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$4.1k	58.6¢	Lost
Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by October 31?	No	$627	52.4¢	Lost
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?	Yes	$325	13.0¢	Won
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-01-25?	No	$280	28.0¢	Won
CA Independiente vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 1.5	Over	$420	42.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	Yes	$1000	13.6¢	Lost
Will Cameroon win on 2026-01-04?	No	$390	39.0¢	Lost
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5	Over	$450	45.0¢	Lost
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	$185	3.6¢	Lost
SS Juve Stabia vs. Delfino Pescara 1936: O/U 1.5	Over	$8	48.0¢	Won
Will George Simion win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?	Yes	$2.2k	16.8¢	Lost
Will Beşiktaş JK vs. Kayserispor end in a draw?	No	$320	32.0¢	Won
Will US Lecce win on 2026-01-11?	No	$360	36.0¢	Won
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5	Over	$480	48.0¢	Lost
Will Wrexham AFC vs. Sheffield United FC end in a draw?	No	$480	48.0¢	Won
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?	No	$4.6k	46.8¢	Lost
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?	Yes	$2.4k	62.0¢	Won
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?	No	$5.0k	63.4¢	Won
US government shutdown by October 1?	No	$1.1k	22.0¢	Lost
Will Olympiacos Piraeus win on 2026-09-20?	Yes	$960	48.0¢	Won
Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$831	60.0¢	Lost
Will Manchester United finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?	Yes	$228	10.9¢	Lost
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25?	No	$470	47.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$6.4k	64.1¢	Won
Will Como 1907 win on 2025-12-27?	No	$240	24.0¢	Lost
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?	No	$6.5k	57.6¢	Won
Will SC Braga win on 2026-01-22?	No	$270	27.0¢	Lost
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m?	No	$500	9.0¢	Lost
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m?	Yes	$881	58.7¢	Won
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?	No	$8.1k	66.6¢	Won
Will England win on 2026-07-11?	No	$1.0k	51.2¢	Won
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-01-02?	No	$429	42.9¢	Lost
CA Barracas Central vs. CA River Plate: O/U 1.5	Over	$450	45.0¢	Lost
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-01-03?	No	$104	50.0¢	Won
Getafe CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5	Over	$400	40.0¢	Won
Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC: O/U 1.5	Over	$450	45.0¢	Lost
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?	No	$2.0k	77.2¢	Won
SC Bastia vs. Grenoble Foot 38: O/U 1.5	Over	$450	45.0¢	Lost
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?	Yes	$3.8k	76.0¢	Won
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Hannover 96: O/U 1.5	Over	$460	46.0¢	Won
Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-01-18?	No	$150	50.0¢	Won
Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-01-18?	Yes	$410	41.0¢	Lost
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$441	44.0¢	Won
AC Milan vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5	Over	$450	45.0¢	Lost
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?	Yes	$126	60.9¢	Lost
Real Zaragoza vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B: O/U 1.5	Over	$400	40.0¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?	Yes	$14.8k	48.2¢	Lost
Will CA Platense win on 2026-01-26?	No	$310	31.0¢	Lost
Will Venezia FC win on 2026-01-10?	No	$370	37.0¢	Lost
AS Roma vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 1.5	Over	$450	45.0¢	Won

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$4.1k @ 58.6¢
Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by October 31?Lost
No$627 @ 52.4¢
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?Won
Yes$325 @ 13.0¢
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-01-25?Won
No$280 @ 28.0¢
CA Independiente vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 1.5Won
Over$420 @ 42.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?Lost
Yes$1000 @ 13.6¢
Will Cameroon win on 2026-01-04?Lost
No$390 @ 39.0¢
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5Lost
Over$450 @ 45.0¢
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?Lost
Yes$185 @ 3.6¢
SS Juve Stabia vs. Delfino Pescara 1936: O/U 1.5Won
Over$8 @ 48.0¢
Will George Simion win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?Lost
Yes$2.2k @ 16.8¢
Will Beşiktaş JK vs. Kayserispor end in a draw?Won
No$320 @ 32.0¢
Will US Lecce win on 2026-01-11?Won
No$360 @ 36.0¢
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5Lost
Over$480 @ 48.0¢
Will Wrexham AFC vs. Sheffield United FC end in a draw?Won
No$480 @ 48.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?Lost
No$4.6k @ 46.8¢
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?Won
Yes$2.4k @ 62.0¢
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?Won
No$5.0k @ 63.4¢
US government shutdown by October 1?Lost
No$1.1k @ 22.0¢
Will Olympiacos Piraeus win on 2026-09-20?Won
Yes$960 @ 48.0¢
Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to ScoreLost
Yes$831 @ 60.0¢
Will Manchester United finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?Lost
Yes$228 @ 10.9¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25?Won
No$470 @ 47.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$6.4k @ 64.1¢
Will Como 1907 win on 2025-12-27?Lost
No$240 @ 24.0¢
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?Won
No$6.5k @ 57.6¢
Will SC Braga win on 2026-01-22?Lost
No$270 @ 27.0¢
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m?Lost
No$500 @ 9.0¢
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m?Won
Yes$881 @ 58.7¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?Won
No$8.1k @ 66.6¢
Will England win on 2026-07-11?Won
No$1.0k @ 51.2¢
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-01-02?Lost
No$429 @ 42.9¢
CA Barracas Central vs. CA River Plate: O/U 1.5Lost
Over$450 @ 45.0¢
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-01-03?Won
No$104 @ 50.0¢
Getafe CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5Won
Over$400 @ 40.0¢
Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC: O/U 1.5Lost
Over$450 @ 45.0¢
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?Won
No$2.0k @ 77.2¢
SC Bastia vs. Grenoble Foot 38: O/U 1.5Lost
Over$450 @ 45.0¢
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?Won
Yes$3.8k @ 76.0¢
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Hannover 96: O/U 1.5Won
Over$460 @ 46.0¢
Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-01-18?Won
No$150 @ 50.0¢
Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-01-18?Lost
Yes$410 @ 41.0¢
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$441 @ 44.0¢
AC Milan vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5Lost
Over$450 @ 45.0¢
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?Lost
Yes$126 @ 60.9¢
Real Zaragoza vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B: O/U 1.5Won
Over$400 @ 40.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?Lost
Yes$14.8k @ 48.2¢
Will CA Platense win on 2026-01-26?Lost
No$310 @ 31.0¢
Will Venezia FC win on 2026-01-10?Lost
No$370 @ 37.0¢
AS Roma vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 1.5Won
Over$450 @ 45.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US recession by end of 2026?	Economy	No	$10.0k	66.0¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$8.9k	81.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$5.3k	58.6¢
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$347	0.3¢
Greek snap election scheduled in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$58	60.0¢

US recession by end of 2026?Economy
No$10.0k @ 66.0¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$8.9k @ 81.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$5.3k @ 58.6¢
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$347 @ 0.3¢
Greek snap election scheduled in 2026?Politics
Yes$58 @ 60.0¢