0x8192…0664

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x81924e30a4fe9e1eb715ade61296be6fa74c0664
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.3pp

ROI

+96%

Win rate

9% @ 3.6¢

Brier

0.083

Resolved

440

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	6% (16/276)	-29%	276
Sports	12% (8/67)	+381%	67
Politics	2% (1/44)	-99%	44
Tech	7% (1/15)	+71%	15
Culture	0% (0/14)	-100%	14
Crypto	0% (0/5)	-100%	5
Geopolitics	0% (0/4)	-100%	4

Other276 bets
Hit rate
6% (16/276)
ROI
-29%
Sports67 bets
Hit rate
12% (8/67)
ROI
+381%
Politics44 bets
Hit rate
2% (1/44)
ROI
-99%
Tech15 bets
Hit rate
7% (1/15)
ROI
+71%
Culture14 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/14)
ROI
-100%
Crypto5 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/5)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%

Track record

6% hit · 26/425

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	No	$3	0.1¢	Lost
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	$9	2.8¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?	Yes	$9	0.8¢	Lost
Will Lois Frankel be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?	No	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$4	1.2¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	$3	12.1¢	Lost
Deportivo Alavés leading at halftime?	Yes	$1	11.4¢	Lost
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Yes	$4	20.0¢	Won
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by July 2?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$4	21.0¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Yes	$3	4.4¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	$1	31.0¢	Won
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?	Yes	$2	0.6¢	Lost
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 2 Algeria?	Yes	$1	1.3¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$9	0.1¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$13	0.5¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?	Yes	$1	2.1¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$1	0.8¢	Lost
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$7	2.6¢	Lost
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	No	$2	0.3¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$9	1.0¢	Lost
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	No	$5	2.9¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?	No	$9	1.3¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Charlotte Hornets in 2026-27?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?	No	$7	1.1¢	Lost
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Yes	$4	17.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?	No	$2	0.4¢	Lost
Will James Fishback at least 30% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	$1	1.1¢	Lost
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$5	3.9¢	Lost
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$2	0.2¢	Lost
Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$4	1.4¢	Lost
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance	Cabo Verde	$2	30.0¢	Lost
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	$3	8.9¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$8	0.3¢	Lost
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Yes	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?	No	$6	5.7¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?	Yes	$1	1.2¢	Lost
Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	$2	1.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	$7	11.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?	Yes	$1	0.9¢	Lost

World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?Lost
No$3 @ 0.1¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?Lost
Yes$9 @ 2.8¢
Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.8¢
Will Lois Frankel be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?Lost
No$1 @ 3.0¢
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$4 @ 1.2¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$3 @ 12.1¢
Deportivo Alavés leading at halftime?Lost
Yes$1 @ 11.4¢
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?Won
Yes$4 @ 20.0¢
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by July 2?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?Won
Yes$4 @ 21.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?Lost
Yes$3 @ 4.4¢
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 31.0¢
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.6¢
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 2 Algeria?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.3¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.1¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$13 @ 0.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.1¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.8¢
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$7 @ 2.6¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 0.3¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$9 @ 1.0¢
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?Lost
No$5 @ 2.9¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?Lost
No$9 @ 1.3¢
Will LeBron James play for the Charlotte Hornets in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?Lost
No$7 @ 1.1¢
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?Lost
Yes$4 @ 17.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?Lost
No$2 @ 0.4¢
Will James Fishback at least 30% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.1¢
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?Lost
Yes$5 @ 3.9¢
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
Yes$4 @ 1.4¢
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to AdvanceLost
Cabo Verde$2 @ 30.0¢
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?Lost
Yes$3 @ 8.9¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.3¢
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?Lost
No$6 @ 5.7¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.2¢
Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Lost
No$2 @ 1.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Lost
Yes$7 @ 11.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	—	Yes	$1	0.1¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	—	No	$1	0.1¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	—	Yes	$0	0.1¢

Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?—
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?—
No$1 @ 0.1¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?—
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢