0x80cf…614d

Specialization by sphere

• Other159 bets

  Hit rate

  35% (56/159)

  ROI

  +30%

• Politics35 bets

  Hit rate

  46% (16/35)

  ROI

  +12%

• Tech7 bets

  Hit rate

  43% (3/7)

  ROI

  +84%

• Economy4 bets

  Hit rate

  75% (3/4)

  ROI

  +22%

• Business1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +23%

• Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?Won
  No$257 @ 82.0¢
• Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?Lost
  Yes$47 @ 15.0¢
• Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Won
  Yes$2.9k @ 78.2¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?Won
  No$545 @ 89.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?Lost
  Yes$209 @ 19.3¢
• Will Trump issue 15-19 executive orders on Day 1?Lost
  Yes$70 @ 7.0¢
• Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31?Lost
  Yes$123 @ 15.4¢
• Will Elon Musk attend presidential inauguration?Lost
  No$0 @ 4.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$1.1k @ 30.1¢
• Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?Won
  No$800 @ 80.0¢
• Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?Lost
  Yes$36 @ 3.6¢
• Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI?Lost
  No$70 @ 7.0¢
• Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Won
  No$438 @ 73.0¢
• Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?Won
  No$1.1k @ 51.5¢
• Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?Lost
  Yes$964 @ 50.0¢
• Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?Won
  No$466 @ 77.7¢
• Will the next US Speaker be elected in three ballots?Won
  No$122 @ 76.0¢
• Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey?Lost
  No$48 @ 4.3¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
  No$223 @ 13.4¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$518 @ 37.0¢
• Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?Won
  Yes$2 @ 18.0¢
• Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by less than 3%?Lost
  Yes$5 @ 5.0¢
• Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?Won
  No$1.1k @ 78.5¢
• Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?Lost
  No$26 @ 52.0¢
• Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 1.4¢
• Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary?Lost
  No$1.7k @ 14.6¢
• Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 16?Lost
  Yes$211 @ 19.0¢
• Will Ron DeSantis be Trump's Defense Secretary?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 0.6¢
• Assad public appearance before 2025?Lost
  Yes$21 @ 1.4¢
• Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days?Lost
  Yes$22 @ 12.6¢
• Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025?Won
  No$160 @ 88.0¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
  Yes$558 @ 0.7¢
• Will Trump say "Epstein" by Monday?Lost
  Yes$39 @ 7.7¢
• Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?Won
  No$8 @ 81.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
  Yes$1.4k @ 32.5¢
• Will Trump meet Pope Leo XIV before August?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 42.0¢
• Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%?Won
  Yes$83 @ 8.3¢
• Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?Lost
  No$2.6k @ 68.1¢
• Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Lost
  Yes$338 @ 26.0¢
• Congress passes funding bill before 2025?Lost
  No$1 @ 0.1¢
• Will Steven Fulop win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey?Lost
  Yes$4 @ 1.2¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?Won
  No$130 @ 51.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?Lost
  Yes$23 @ 46.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
  No$356 @ 89.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Lost
  Yes$64 @ 8.0¢
• Will Schumer remain Minority Leader through 2025?Lost
  No$359 @ 24.0¢
• Will Schumer remain Minority Leader through 2025?Won
  Yes$160 @ 70.9¢
• Will Ron DeSantis be appointed as the next Florida senator?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 0.9¢
• Will Trump issue 10-14 executive orders on Day 1?Lost
  Yes$87 @ 5.8¢
• Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September 2026?Lost
  Yes$144 @ 55.8¢

Current positions

• Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
  No$7.4k @ 50.0¢
• Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
  Yes$7.4k @ 50.0¢
• Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
  Yes$1.4k @ 6.4¢
• Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$498 @ 9.0¢
• Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil?Politics
  No$292 @ 66.7¢
• Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
  Yes$216 @ 36.0¢
• Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
  Yes$139 @ 18.1¢
• Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$138 @ 9.0¢
• Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$125 @ 9.0¢
• Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
  Yes$124 @ 62.0¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$69 @ 69.0¢
• Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$64 @ 10.1¢
• Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?Politics
  Yes$48 @ 8.0¢
• Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Tech
  No$43 @ 7.1¢
• Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Tech
  No$41 @ 51.0¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  Yes$18 @ 18.0¢
• Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
  Yes$17 @ 7.1¢
• Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$6 @ 36.0¢
• Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?Tech
  Yes$3 @ 35.0¢