0x7d58…462d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x7d582e9125cc7eaed44aaf6b33789fa73de8462d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.5pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

43% @ 37.4¢

Brier

0.215

Resolved

716

Avg size

$25

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	42% (65/154)	+21%	154
Politics	41% (34/82)	+7%	82
Sports	39% (7/18)	-1%	18
Tech	36% (5/14)	-11%	14
Geopolitics	36% (4/11)	+9%	11
Crypto	44% (4/9)	-37%	9
Economy	25% (2/8)	-66%	8
Culture	33% (1/3)	+27%	3

Other154 bets
Hit rate
42% (65/154)
ROI
+21%
Politics82 bets
Hit rate
41% (34/82)
ROI
+7%
Sports18 bets
Hit rate
39% (7/18)
ROI
-1%
Tech14 bets
Hit rate
36% (5/14)
ROI
-11%
Geopolitics11 bets
Hit rate
36% (4/11)
ROI
+9%
Crypto9 bets
Hit rate
44% (4/9)
ROI
-37%
Economy8 bets
Hit rate
25% (2/8)
ROI
-66%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+27%

Track record

41% hit · 122/299

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Uniswap protocol fee switch enabled by December 31?	Yes	$59	59.0¢	Won
Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?	No	$44	13.8¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$14	13.5¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	$174	87.0¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Zohran Mamdani in November?	No	$14	68.0¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Zohran Mamdani in November?	Yes	$13	22.7¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in November?	No	$12	60.0¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in November?	Yes	$14	32.6¢	Lost
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	$40	79.9¢	Won
Infinex FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	$8	9.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$375	62.2¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$54	27.0¢	Lost
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	$1	2.3¢	Lost
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	$1	2.1¢	Lost
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	$42	83.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$51	42.9¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$44	69.0¢	Won
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$31	3.1¢	Lost
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	No	$90	75.0¢	Won
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	No	$81	88.0¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$37	19.0¢	Won
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	$148	80.0¢	Won
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	$61	19.2¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?	No	$116	54.6¢	Lost
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	No	$22	60.0¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Benjamin Netanyahu in November?	No	$2	11.0¢	Lost
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$75	35.4¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	$5	26.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	$90	39.6¢	Lost
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	$23	50.4¢	Won
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?	No	$91	50.6¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$270	67.5¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$14	7.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?	Yes	$4	8.4¢	Lost
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$21	13.0¢	Lost
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?	Yes	$136	84.0¢	Won
Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	$1	2.5¢	Lost
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	$31	5.6¢	Lost
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?	Yes	$18	8.8¢	Lost
Will Athletics win the 2026 American League Championship Series?	Yes	$0	2.2¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$30	63.3¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	$45	18.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	$80	79.5¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in November?	Yes	$27	23.8¢	Won
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?	Yes	$43	27.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?	Yes	$88	17.7¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	$110	80.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$42	22.0¢	Lost
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?	Yes	$12	8.0¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$190	67.5¢	Won

Uniswap protocol fee switch enabled by December 31?Won
Yes$59 @ 59.0¢
Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?Lost
No$44 @ 13.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$14 @ 13.5¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Won
No$174 @ 87.0¢
Will Trump talk to Zohran Mamdani in November?Lost
No$14 @ 68.0¢
Will Trump talk to Zohran Mamdani in November?Won
Yes$13 @ 22.7¢
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in November?Won
No$12 @ 60.0¢
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in November?Lost
Yes$14 @ 32.6¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Won
No$40 @ 79.9¢
Infinex FDV above $1B one day after launch?Lost
Yes$8 @ 9.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$375 @ 62.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$54 @ 27.0¢
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?Lost
No$1 @ 2.3¢
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?Lost
No$1 @ 2.1¢
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?Won
Yes$42 @ 83.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$51 @ 42.9¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$44 @ 69.0¢
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$31 @ 3.1¢
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?Won
No$90 @ 75.0¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Lost
No$81 @ 88.0¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$37 @ 19.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
No$148 @ 80.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Lost
Yes$61 @ 19.2¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?Lost
No$116 @ 54.6¢
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Won
No$22 @ 60.0¢
Will Trump talk to Benjamin Netanyahu in November?Lost
No$2 @ 11.0¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$75 @ 35.4¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 26.0¢
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Lost
No$90 @ 39.6¢
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Won
Yes$23 @ 50.4¢
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?Lost
No$91 @ 50.6¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$270 @ 67.5¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$14 @ 7.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?Lost
Yes$4 @ 8.4¢
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?Lost
No$21 @ 13.0¢
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?Won
Yes$136 @ 84.0¢
Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.5¢
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?Lost
No$31 @ 5.6¢
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?Lost
Yes$18 @ 8.8¢
Will Athletics win the 2026 American League Championship Series?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.2¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$30 @ 63.3¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Lost
No$45 @ 18.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Won
Yes$80 @ 79.5¢
Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in November?Won
Yes$27 @ 23.8¢
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?Lost
Yes$43 @ 27.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?Lost
Yes$88 @ 17.7¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Won
No$110 @ 80.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$42 @ 22.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?Won
Yes$12 @ 8.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$190 @ 67.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$48	47.5¢
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	Sports	Yes	$45	22.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$36	71.0¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$36	71.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$34	68.0¢
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$33	66.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$31	62.0¢
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	Sports	No	$26	26.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$26	51.1¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$12	11.6¢
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026	Crypto	Yes	$9	18.0¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$6	17.0¢
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$5	10.0¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4	76.0¢

Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$48 @ 47.5¢
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?Sports
Yes$45 @ 22.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$36 @ 71.0¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$36 @ 71.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$34 @ 68.0¢
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$33 @ 66.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$31 @ 62.0¢
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?Sports
No$26 @ 26.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$26 @ 51.1¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$12 @ 11.6¢
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026Crypto
Yes$9 @ 18.0¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Tech
Yes$6 @ 17.0¢
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?Tech
Yes$5 @ 10.0¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$4 @ 76.0¢