0x7d1b…e75c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x7d1bb9f000e5fce13db3a0927b64aa38e69de75c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.1pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

31% @ 27.9¢

Brier

0.103

Resolved

2790

Avg size

$27

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	41% (55/135)	+27%	135
Politics	69% (22/32)	+24%	32
Tech	24% (6/25)	-38%	25
Geopolitics	55% (6/11)	-33%	11

Other135 bets
Hit rate
41% (55/135)
ROI
+27%
Politics32 bets
Hit rate
69% (22/32)
ROI
+24%
Tech25 bets
Hit rate
24% (6/25)
ROI
-38%
Geopolitics11 bets
Hit rate
55% (6/11)
ROI
-33%

Track record

44% hit · 89/203

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?	Yes	$4	1.6¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Toretske by February 28, 2026?	No	$238	70.9¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by March 31?	No	$300	79.7¢	Won
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	$4	0.2¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$2.0k	52.9¢	Won
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	$5	0.2¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?	No	$231	59.6¢	Won
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by March 31?	Yes	$34	14.8¢	Lost
Will Great Britain win Miss Universe 2025?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by January 31, 2026?	No	$828	78.8¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$7	37.0¢	Lost
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?	No	$416	86.0¢	Won
Will sports prediction markets be banned in any U.S. state in 2025?	Yes	$9	45.0¢	Lost
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?	Yes	$125	59.5¢	Won
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?	No	$2.6k	52.3¢	Won
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?	Yes	$2	35.0¢	Lost
Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?	No	$244	38.1¢	Won
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025?	No	$7	72.0¢	Won
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in September 2025?	Yes	$16	23.3¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?	Yes	$584	9.8¢	Won
Will the Government shutdown end October 3-5?	Yes	$2	15.0¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by February 28, 2026?	No	$950	77.7¢	Won
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by March 31?	No	$1.3k	82.6¢	Won
Will United Left (BSP) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?	No	$43	41.7¢	Won
Will xAI have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?	No	$802	79.8¢	Won
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?	Yes	$6	6.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	Yes	$2.6k	25.5¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?	No	$78	78.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	Yes	$4	1.9¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?	Yes	$51	43.3¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?	No	$403	73.3¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$1.6k	75.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on October 31?	Yes	$4	39.0¢	Lost
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?	No	$13	83.9¢	Lost
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$8	1.4¢	Lost
Will Alibaba have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?	Yes	$40	0.5¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	No	$5.0k	79.2¢	Won
Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9?	Yes	$2	17.0¢	Lost
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will Turkey win Miss Universe 2025?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Zaliznychne by February 28?	Yes	$31	61.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by February 28, 2026?	No	$535	80.2¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	No	$90	81.7¢	Won
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 30?	No	$46	13.9¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15?	No	$99	3.8¢	Lost
Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by March 31?	Yes	$420	13.8¢	Won
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	$1	12.0¢	Lost

Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?Lost
Yes$4 @ 1.6¢
Will Russia capture Toretske by February 28, 2026?Won
No$238 @ 70.9¢
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by March 31?Won
No$300 @ 79.7¢
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.2¢
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 52.9¢
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Lost
No$5 @ 0.2¢
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?Won
No$231 @ 59.6¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by March 31?Lost
Yes$34 @ 14.8¢
Will Great Britain win Miss Universe 2025?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by January 31, 2026?Won
No$828 @ 78.8¢
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 37.0¢
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?Won
No$416 @ 86.0¢
Will sports prediction markets be banned in any U.S. state in 2025?Lost
Yes$9 @ 45.0¢
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?Won
Yes$125 @ 59.5¢
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?Won
No$2.6k @ 52.3¢
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 35.0¢
Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Lost
No$0 @ 1.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?Won
No$244 @ 38.1¢
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025?Won
No$7 @ 72.0¢
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in September 2025?Lost
Yes$16 @ 23.3¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?Won
Yes$584 @ 9.8¢
Will the Government shutdown end October 3-5?Lost
Yes$2 @ 15.0¢
Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by February 28, 2026?Won
No$950 @ 77.7¢
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by March 31?Won
No$1.3k @ 82.6¢
Will United Left (BSP) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?Won
No$43 @ 41.7¢
Will xAI have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?Won
No$802 @ 79.8¢
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?Lost
Yes$6 @ 6.0¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?Lost
Yes$2.6k @ 25.5¢
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?Won
No$78 @ 78.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?Lost
Yes$4 @ 1.9¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?Won
Yes$51 @ 43.3¢
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?Won
No$403 @ 73.3¢
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 75.0¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on October 31?Lost
Yes$4 @ 39.0¢
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?Lost
No$13 @ 83.9¢
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 1.4¢
Will Alibaba have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?Lost
Yes$40 @ 0.5¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?Won
No$5.0k @ 79.2¢
Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9?Lost
Yes$2 @ 17.0¢
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will Turkey win Miss Universe 2025?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Russia enter Zaliznychne by February 28?Won
Yes$31 @ 61.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by February 28, 2026?Won
No$535 @ 80.2¢
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?Won
No$90 @ 81.7¢
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 30?Lost
No$46 @ 13.9¢
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15?Lost
No$99 @ 3.8¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by March 31?Won
Yes$420 @ 13.8¢
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Lost
Yes$1 @ 12.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$2.1k	87.4¢
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?	Politics	No	$1.9k	83.6¢
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$1.7k	78.5¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1.1k	32.2¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$996	64.5¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$985	55.9¢
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$858	88.4¢
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$607	93.8¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$523	28.0¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$457	45.8¢
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$454	86.7¢
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$442	10.7¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$389	45.1¢
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$386	49.6¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$377	43.5¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$316	55.2¢
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$276	92.8¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$265	33.7¢
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$186	81.6¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$181	31.1¢
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30?	Politics	No	$174	67.8¢
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$169	62.7¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$165	9.2¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$129	25.6¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$126	67.6¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$118	53.6¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$117	4.8¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$81	7.3¢
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	No	$76	90.4¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$69	81.1¢

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$2.1k @ 87.4¢
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?Politics
No$1.9k @ 83.6¢
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$1.7k @ 78.5¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$1.1k @ 32.2¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$996 @ 64.5¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$985 @ 55.9¢
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$858 @ 88.4¢
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$607 @ 93.8¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$523 @ 28.0¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$457 @ 45.8¢
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$454 @ 86.7¢
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$442 @ 10.7¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$389 @ 45.1¢
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$386 @ 49.6¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$377 @ 43.5¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$316 @ 55.2¢
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$276 @ 92.8¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31?Politics
Yes$265 @ 33.7¢
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$186 @ 81.6¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$181 @ 31.1¢
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30?Politics
No$174 @ 67.8¢
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$169 @ 62.7¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$165 @ 9.2¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$129 @ 25.6¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$126 @ 67.6¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$118 @ 53.6¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$117 @ 4.8¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$81 @ 7.3¢
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
No$76 @ 90.4¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$69 @ 81.1¢