← Smart money
0x7cf9…2798
SharpEdge
+12.9pp
ROI
+67%
Win rate
37% @ 24.0¢
Brier
0.059
Resolved
875
Avg size
$358
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 43% (3/7) | -6% | 7 |
| Politics | 50% (2/4) | +72% | 4 |
| Crypto | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Other7 bets
- Hit rate
- 43% (3/7)
- ROI
- -6%
- Politics4 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (2/4)
- ROI
- +72%
- Crypto1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
42% hit · 5/12| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | $315 | 0.6¢ | Lost |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | $49 | 85.0¢ | Won |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | $6.3k | 0.7¢ | Lost |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Yes | $891 | 0.3¢ | Lost |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | No | $20 | 0.2¢ | Lost |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | $95.5k | 54.8¢ | Won |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | No | $183.4k | 55.3¢ | Won |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | $8.0k | 17.0¢ | Lost |
| Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | $3 | 0.1¢ | Lost |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Yes | $1.7k | 85.0¢ | Won |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | $2.9k | 1.9¢ | Lost |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Yes | $14.4k | 88.9¢ | Won |
- Yes$315 @ 0.6¢
- Yes$49 @ 85.0¢
- Yes$6.3k @ 0.7¢
- Yes$891 @ 0.3¢
- No$20 @ 0.2¢
- Yes$95.5k @ 54.8¢
- No$183.4k @ 55.3¢
- Yes$8.0k @ 17.0¢
- Yes$3 @ 0.1¢
- Yes$1.7k @ 85.0¢
- No$2.9k @ 1.9¢
- Yes$14.4k @ 88.9¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Politics | Yes | $70.0k | 50.0¢ |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Politics | No | $70.0k | 50.0¢ |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Politics | Yes | $28.6k | 45.3¢ |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | Politics | Yes | $14.2k | 51.4¢ |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | Politics | No | $2.8k | 99.1¢ |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | Politics | Yes | $551 | 0.7¢ |
| Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | Economy | Yes | $181 | 17.6¢ |
- Yes$70.0k @ 50.0¢
- No$70.0k @ 50.0¢
- Yes$28.6k @ 45.3¢
- Yes$14.2k @ 51.4¢
- No$2.8k @ 99.1¢
- Yes$551 @ 0.7¢
- Yes$181 @ 17.6¢