0x7c30…7673

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x7c30ee60b7f53f80211ca65df99d48cce53b7673
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

-15.1pp

ROI

+5%

Win rate

51% @ 66.3¢

Brier

0.243

Resolved

Avg size

$118

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	48% (11/23)	+4%	23
Sports	38% (3/8)	+2%	8
Business	80% (4/5)	+15%	5
Tech	75% (3/4)	+19%	4
Politics	50% (1/2)	+32%	2
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+25%	1

Other23 bets
Hit rate
48% (11/23)
ROI
+4%
Sports8 bets
Hit rate
38% (3/8)
ROI
+2%
Business5 bets
Hit rate
80% (4/5)
ROI
+15%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+19%
Politics2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+32%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+25%

Track record

53% hit · 23/43

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$34	56.0¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1.0k	79.4¢	Won
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $900 Week of August 10 2026?	No	$59	58.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$411	82.2¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$396	26.4¢	Won
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in June?	No	$429	85.9¢	Won
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league?	No	$58	29.0¢	Lost
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$33	65.0¢	Lost
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	$160	80.0¢	Lost
Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$249	83.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$792	88.0¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	No	$688	86.0¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in June?	No	$5	77.0¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	$855	85.0¢	Won
Will AC Milan win the 2025–26 Serie A league?	Yes	$10	10.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$354	59.0¢	Won
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$103	57.0¢	Won
Will Freddie Mac not IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$300	81.0¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$488	61.0¢	Won
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Serie A league?	Yes	$10	10.0¢	Lost
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$12	17.7¢	Lost
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	$24	59.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$176	88.0¢	Won
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Yes	$47	77.5¢	Won
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$13	63.0¢	Lost
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	Yes	$3	25.1¢	Lost
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	$208	69.4¢	Won
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	$118	59.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 (High)?	No	$43	82.0¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	$1.5k	82.4¢	Won
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	$157	74.0¢	Lost
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	No	$792	88.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$219	73.0¢	Lost
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%?	No	$25	85.0¢	Lost
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $750 Week of July 27 2026?	No	$34	68.0¢	Lost
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5)	SS Lazio	$44	73.0¢	Lost
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	$267	89.0¢	Won
Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$54	70.0¢	Won
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?	Yes	$76	79.8¢	Won
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?	No	$56	28.0¢	Lost
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?	Yes	$447	89.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$270	67.5¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	$658	72.9¢	Won

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$34 @ 56.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 79.4¢
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $900 Week of August 10 2026?Lost
No$59 @ 58.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$411 @ 82.2¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$396 @ 26.4¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in June?Won
No$429 @ 85.9¢
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league?Lost
No$58 @ 29.0¢
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$33 @ 65.0¢
Will Trump visit China by April 30?Lost
Yes$160 @ 80.0¢
Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$249 @ 83.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$792 @ 88.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Lost
No$688 @ 86.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in June?Won
No$5 @ 77.0¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Won
Yes$855 @ 85.0¢
Will AC Milan win the 2025–26 Serie A league?Lost
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$354 @ 59.0¢
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?Won
Yes$103 @ 57.0¢
Will Freddie Mac not IPO by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$300 @ 81.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$488 @ 61.0¢
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Serie A league?Lost
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?Lost
Yes$12 @ 17.7¢
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?Lost
Yes$24 @ 59.0¢
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$176 @ 88.0¢
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?Won
Yes$47 @ 77.5¢
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$13 @ 63.0¢
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?Lost
Yes$3 @ 25.1¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Won
Yes$208 @ 69.4¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$118 @ 59.0¢
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 (High)?Won
No$43 @ 82.0¢
Will Trump visit China by May 31?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 82.4¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$157 @ 74.0¢
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?Won
No$792 @ 88.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$219 @ 73.0¢
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%?Lost
No$25 @ 85.0¢
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $750 Week of July 27 2026?Lost
No$34 @ 68.0¢
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5)Lost
SS Lazio$44 @ 73.0¢
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League?Won
No$267 @ 89.0¢
Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$54 @ 70.0¢
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?Won
Yes$76 @ 79.8¢
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?Lost
No$56 @ 28.0¢
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?Won
Yes$447 @ 89.0¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$270 @ 67.5¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?Won
No$658 @ 72.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US recession by end of 2026?	Economy	No	$13.2k	74.5¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$9.8k	84.7¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$8.1k	90.3¢
AI bubble burst in 2026?	Tech	No	$4.4k	76.8¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$3.6k	82.8¢
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$1.9k	84.7¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$1.6k	75.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Tech	No	$1.4k	81.9¢
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?	Tech	No	$1.2k	92.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$1.2k	73.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$686	40.8¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$676	49.6¢
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?	—	Yes	$468	47.9¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$438	67.6¢
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,020 Week of August 31 2026?	—	No	$336	84.0¢
Databricks IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$312	78.5¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$308	66.4¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$296	74.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$264	88.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$261	87.0¢
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$248	82.6¢
Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$232	54.9¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in September?	—	No	$158	88.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in September?	—	No	$153	59.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in September?	—	No	$149	81.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$148	74.0¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?	Tech	No	$139	87.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in September?	—	No	$138	92.1¢
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?	Tech	Yes	$135	22.5¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Economy	No	$125	41.7¢

US recession by end of 2026?Economy
No$13.2k @ 74.5¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$9.8k @ 84.7¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
No$8.1k @ 90.3¢
AI bubble burst in 2026?Tech
No$4.4k @ 76.8¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Geopolitics
Yes$3.6k @ 82.8¢
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$1.9k @ 84.7¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Tech
No$1.6k @ 75.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
No$1.4k @ 81.9¢
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?Tech
No$1.2k @ 92.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Politics
No$1.2k @ 73.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Tech
Yes$686 @ 40.8¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Tech
Yes$676 @ 49.6¢
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?—
Yes$468 @ 47.9¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$438 @ 67.6¢
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,020 Week of August 31 2026?—
No$336 @ 84.0¢
Databricks IPO before 2027?Business
No$312 @ 78.5¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$308 @ 66.4¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$296 @ 74.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$264 @ 88.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$261 @ 87.0¢
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$248 @ 82.6¢
Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?Business
No$232 @ 54.9¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in September?—
No$158 @ 88.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in September?—
No$153 @ 59.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in September?—
No$149 @ 81.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Business
Yes$148 @ 74.0¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?Tech
No$139 @ 87.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in September?—
No$138 @ 92.1¢
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?Tech
Yes$135 @ 22.5¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Economy
No$125 @ 41.7¢