0x7c30…7673

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x7c30ee60b7f53f80211ca65df99d48cce53b7673
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

-13.1pp

ROI

+3%

Win rate

49% @ 62.6¢

Brier

0.232

Resolved

Avg size

$123

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	52% (11/21)	-1%	21
Sports	38% (3/8)	+2%	8
Tech	67% (2/3)	+20%	3
Politics	50% (1/2)	+32%	2
Business	50% (1/2)	+3%	2
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+25%	1

Other21 bets
Hit rate
52% (11/21)
ROI
-1%
Sports8 bets
Hit rate
38% (3/8)
ROI
+2%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+20%
Politics2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+32%
Business2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+3%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+25%

Track record

51% hit · 19/37

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?	Yes	$76	79.8¢	Won
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$34	56.0¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1.1k	78.9¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$411	82.2¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$396	26.4¢	Won
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in June?	No	$429	85.9¢	Won
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league?	No	$592	42.3¢	Lost
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	$267	89.0¢	Won
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$33	65.0¢	Lost
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	$160	80.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$792	88.0¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	No	$688	86.0¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in June?	No	$5	77.0¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	$855	85.0¢	Won
Will AC Milan win the 2025–26 Serie A league?	Yes	$10	10.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$354	59.0¢	Won
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$103	57.0¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$488	61.0¢	Won
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Serie A league?	Yes	$22	11.0¢	Lost
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$12	17.7¢	Lost
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	$24	59.0¢	Lost
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Yes	$47	77.5¢	Won
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$13	63.0¢	Lost
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	Yes	$3	25.1¢	Lost
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	$208	69.4¢	Won
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	$118	59.0¢	Lost
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?	No	$56	28.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 (High)?	No	$43	82.0¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	$1.5k	82.4¢	Won
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?	Yes	$447	89.0¢	Won
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	$157	74.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$270	67.5¢	Won
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	No	$792	88.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$219	73.0¢	Lost
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%?	No	$25	85.0¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	$658	72.9¢	Won
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5)	SS Lazio	$44	73.0¢	Lost

Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?Won
Yes$76 @ 79.8¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$34 @ 56.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 78.9¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$411 @ 82.2¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$396 @ 26.4¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in June?Won
No$429 @ 85.9¢
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league?Lost
No$592 @ 42.3¢
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League?Won
No$267 @ 89.0¢
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$33 @ 65.0¢
Will Trump visit China by April 30?Lost
Yes$160 @ 80.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$792 @ 88.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Lost
No$688 @ 86.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in June?Won
No$5 @ 77.0¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Won
Yes$855 @ 85.0¢
Will AC Milan win the 2025–26 Serie A league?Lost
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$354 @ 59.0¢
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?Won
Yes$103 @ 57.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$488 @ 61.0¢
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Serie A league?Lost
Yes$22 @ 11.0¢
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?Lost
Yes$12 @ 17.7¢
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?Lost
Yes$24 @ 59.0¢
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?Won
Yes$47 @ 77.5¢
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$13 @ 63.0¢
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?Lost
Yes$3 @ 25.1¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Won
Yes$208 @ 69.4¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$118 @ 59.0¢
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?Lost
No$56 @ 28.0¢
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 (High)?Won
No$43 @ 82.0¢
Will Trump visit China by May 31?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 82.4¢
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?Won
Yes$447 @ 89.0¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$157 @ 74.0¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$270 @ 67.5¢
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?Won
No$792 @ 88.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$219 @ 73.0¢
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%?Lost
No$25 @ 85.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?Won
No$658 @ 72.9¢
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5)Lost
SS Lazio$44 @ 73.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US recession by end of 2026?	Economy	No	$12.4k	73.7¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$9.8k	84.7¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$8.1k	90.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Geopolitics	No	$4.6k	92.2¢
AI bubble burst in 2026?	Tech	No	$3.6k	76.4¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$2.6k	40.8¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$2.3k	49.6¢
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$1.9k	84.7¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$703	78.1¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$541	25.8¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Economy	No	$500	41.7¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$438	67.6¢
Databricks IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$312	78.5¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$261	87.0¢
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$248	82.6¢
Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$232	54.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Politics	Yes	$230	46.0¢
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	No	$191	95.5¢
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,020 in July?	—	Yes	$183	73.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	No	$163	81.5¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$152	76.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$148	74.0¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?	Tech	No	$139	87.0¢
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?	Tech	Yes	$135	22.5¢
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?	Tech	Yes	$129	43.0¢
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Sports	No	$99	66.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$95	19.0¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	No	$90	90.0¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$87	10.9¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Tech	No	$74	74.0¢

US recession by end of 2026?Economy
No$12.4k @ 73.7¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$9.8k @ 84.7¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
No$8.1k @ 90.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
No$4.6k @ 92.2¢
AI bubble burst in 2026?Tech
No$3.6k @ 76.4¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Tech
Yes$2.6k @ 40.8¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Tech
Yes$2.3k @ 49.6¢
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$1.9k @ 84.7¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$703 @ 78.1¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$541 @ 25.8¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Economy
No$500 @ 41.7¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$438 @ 67.6¢
Databricks IPO before 2027?Business
No$312 @ 78.5¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$261 @ 87.0¢
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$248 @ 82.6¢
Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?Business
No$232 @ 54.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Politics
Yes$230 @ 46.0¢
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
No$191 @ 95.5¢
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,020 in July?—
Yes$183 @ 73.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
No$163 @ 81.5¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$152 @ 76.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$148 @ 74.0¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?Tech
No$139 @ 87.0¢
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?Tech
Yes$135 @ 22.5¢
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?Tech
Yes$129 @ 43.0¢
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Sports
No$99 @ 66.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Tech
Yes$95 @ 19.0¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
No$90 @ 90.0¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$87 @ 10.9¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
No$74 @ 74.0¢