0x7bd9…bd75

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x7bd9019211677f5db6e221d6a6da030ebcd0bd75
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.9pp

ROI

+31%

Win rate

33% @ 30.0¢

Brier

0.098

Resolved

2952

Avg size

$33

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (74/149)	+49%	149
Science	64% (9/14)	+13%	14
Politics	58% (7/12)	-44%	12
Sports	50% (1/2)	-69%	2

Other149 bets
Hit rate
50% (74/149)
ROI
+49%
Science14 bets
Hit rate
64% (9/14)
ROI
+13%
Politics12 bets
Hit rate
58% (7/12)
ROI
-44%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-69%

Track record

51% hit · 91/177

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$369	82.0¢	Lost
Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	$354	85.3¢	Won
Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$371	73.4¢	Won
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	$20	33.4¢	Lost
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	$186	92.8¢	Won
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31?	Yes	$106	26.5¢	Won
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?	Yes	$5	7.6¢	Won
Will there be at least 4300 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$298	85.2¢	Won
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	$2.1k	68.8¢	Won
Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?	No	$28	22.8¢	Lost
Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$274	66.0¢	Won
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Yes	$93	31.0¢	Won
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2025 French Open?	Yes	$6	0.1¢	Lost
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.7k	59.2¢	Won
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$7	3.3¢	Lost
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	$14	1.5¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?	Yes	$6.1k	7.9¢	Lost
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?	No	$828	22.2¢	Lost
Will there be at least 750 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?	No	$770	75.2¢	Won
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?	No	$635	85.4¢	Won
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?	No	$231	88.2¢	Won
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$4.3k	20.9¢	Lost
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?	No	$1	1.1¢	Lost
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$85	84.5¢	Won
Will there be at least 1575 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?	No	$4	38.0¢	Lost
Will there be at least 1750 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$219	70.2¢	Won
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	$5	1.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 22?	No	$11	75.0¢	Won
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	No	$237	38.5¢	Won
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2025 French Open?	Yes	$6	0.1¢	Lost
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2025 French Open?	Yes	$7	0.1¢	Lost
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open?	Yes	$3	28.8¢	Won
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix Pole?	Yes	$15	0.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Grocery" during Mamdani events on November 21?	Yes	$8	15.0¢	Won
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?	No	$124	42.9¢	Won
Will Novak Djokovic win Wimbledon 2025?	No	$989	86.0¢	Won
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?	Yes	$4	2.7¢	Lost
Will there be at least 1850 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	No	$797	83.8¢	Won
Will there be at least 700 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?	No	$156	79.2¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on April 9?	Yes	$1	0.7¢	Lost
Will George Russell achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	Yes	$3	17.4¢	Lost
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$627	1.8¢	Lost
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?	No	$95	77.2¢	Won
Will there be at least 2100 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	No	$43	78.9¢	Won
Will there be at least 3700+ measles cases in the U.S. by September 30, 2026?	No	$519	73.2¢	Won
Will there be at least 3700+ measles cases in the U.S. by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$41	67.3¢	Lost
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open?	No	$724	89.2¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 18?	No	$12	80.3¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 6?	No	$112	75.4¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 6?	Yes	$80	9.4¢	Lost

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
No$369 @ 82.0¢
Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Won
Yes$354 @ 85.3¢
Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$371 @ 73.4¢
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Lost
No$20 @ 33.4¢
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Won
No$186 @ 92.8¢
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31?Won
Yes$106 @ 26.5¢
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?Won
Yes$5 @ 7.6¢
Will there be at least 4300 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$298 @ 85.2¢
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 68.8¢
Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$28 @ 22.8¢
Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$274 @ 66.0¢
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?Won
Yes$93 @ 31.0¢
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2025 French Open?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.1¢
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.7k @ 59.2¢
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 3.3¢
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Lost
Yes$14 @ 1.5¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?Lost
Yes$6.1k @ 7.9¢
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$828 @ 22.2¢
Will there be at least 750 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Won
No$770 @ 75.2¢
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?Won
No$635 @ 85.4¢
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?Won
No$231 @ 88.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$4.3k @ 20.9¢
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 1.1¢
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Won
Yes$85 @ 84.5¢
Will there be at least 1575 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 38.0¢
Will there be at least 1750 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?Won
Yes$219 @ 70.2¢
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.5¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 22?Won
No$11 @ 75.0¢
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?Won
No$237 @ 38.5¢
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2025 French Open?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.1¢
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2025 French Open?Lost
Yes$7 @ 0.1¢
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open?Won
Yes$3 @ 28.8¢
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix Pole?Lost
Yes$15 @ 0.5¢
Will Trump say "Grocery" during Mamdani events on November 21?Won
Yes$8 @ 15.0¢
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?Won
No$124 @ 42.9¢
Will Novak Djokovic win Wimbledon 2025?Won
No$989 @ 86.0¢
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.7¢
Will there be at least 1850 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?Won
No$797 @ 83.8¢
Will there be at least 700 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Won
No$156 @ 79.2¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on April 9?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.7¢
Will George Russell achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?Lost
Yes$3 @ 17.4¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$627 @ 1.8¢
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?Won
No$95 @ 77.2¢
Will there be at least 2100 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?Won
No$43 @ 78.9¢
Will there be at least 3700+ measles cases in the U.S. by September 30, 2026?Won
No$519 @ 73.2¢
Will there be at least 3700+ measles cases in the U.S. by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$41 @ 67.3¢
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open?Won
No$724 @ 89.2¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 18?Won
No$12 @ 80.3¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 6?Won
No$112 @ 75.4¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 6?Lost
Yes$80 @ 9.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$5.5k	27.0¢
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	No	$3.0k	80.3¢
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	Yes	$2.4k	88.0¢
Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	Politics	No	$562	86.5¢
Will there be at least 4700 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?	Science	Yes	$550	53.0¢
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	No	$517	90.3¢
Will there be at least 5500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	Yes	$479	88.0¢
Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	Yes	$401	88.6¢
Kash Patel out by October 31?	Politics	No	$317	91.6¢
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	No	$303	78.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$294	42.4¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$282	70.5¢
Will there be at least 6500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	No	$280	35.6¢
Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	No	$272	40.5¢
Will there be at least 7000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	No	$179	50.1¢
Blue tsunami in 2026?	Politics	No	$137	45.7¢
Will there be at least 4900 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?	Science	Yes	$44	42.3¢
Will there be at least 4800 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?	Science	No	$18	23.8¢
Will there be at least 4800 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?	Science	Yes	$16	94.0¢

Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
Yes$5.5k @ 27.0¢
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
No$3.0k @ 80.3¢
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
Yes$2.4k @ 88.0¢
Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?Politics
No$562 @ 86.5¢
Will there be at least 4700 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?Science
Yes$550 @ 53.0¢
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
No$517 @ 90.3¢
Will there be at least 5500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
Yes$479 @ 88.0¢
Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
Yes$401 @ 88.6¢
Kash Patel out by October 31?Politics
No$317 @ 91.6¢
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
No$303 @ 78.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$294 @ 42.4¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$282 @ 70.5¢
Will there be at least 6500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
No$280 @ 35.6¢
Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
No$272 @ 40.5¢
Will there be at least 7000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
No$179 @ 50.1¢
Blue tsunami in 2026?Politics
No$137 @ 45.7¢
Will there be at least 4900 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?Science
Yes$44 @ 42.3¢
Will there be at least 4800 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?Science
No$18 @ 23.8¢
Will there be at least 4800 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?Science
Yes$16 @ 94.0¢