0x7bb2…682c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x7bb244d0c70293e66dee84f3d0623fbbbf7d682c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

-4.8pp

ROI

+4%

Win rate

43% @ 48.2¢

Brier

0.189

Resolved

3641

Avg size

$449

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	51% (178/348)	+0%	348
Politics	75% (27/36)	+27%	36
Sports	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+119%	2
Tech	100% (1/1)	+20%	1

Other348 bets
Hit rate
51% (178/348)
ROI
+0%
Politics36 bets
Hit rate
75% (27/36)
ROI
+27%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+119%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+20%

Track record

53% hit · 208/389

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	$2.8k	55.0¢	Won
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	$10.3k	51.5¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	15.5¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	$2.0k	60.0¢	Won
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	$1.7k	77.1¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	No	$408	13.6¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$522	60.0¢	Won
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	$4.2k	83.0¢	Won
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	$3.6k	73.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$13.2k	44.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$345	0.7¢	Lost
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?	No	$903	76.4¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$5.4k	80.1¢	Won
NYC mayoral special election in 2024?	No	$989	85.1¢	Won
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025	Yes	$10.3k	86.0¢	Won
Will Joe Manchin run for Democratic Nominee?	No	$208	71.6¢	Won
Will London Breed win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?	No	$3.0k	60.0¢	Won
South Korean President impeached by Friday?	Yes	$864	30.5¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?	No	$1.0k	50.0¢	Won
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?	No	$309	83.0¢	Won
Will a Democrat win Nevada US Senate Election?	Yes	$18.0k	72.0¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Jair Bolsonaro in August?	No	$89	89.0¢	Won
US government shutdown by October 1?	Yes	$2.7k	86.0¢	Won
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?	Yes	$530	53.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$734	17.9¢	Lost
Will Biden say "Israel" at DNC speech?	No	$84	66.0¢	Won
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?	Yes	$1.6k	31.2¢	Won
Will Biden issue more pardons than Trump?	Yes	$3.2k	45.7¢	Lost
ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?	No	$8.3k	79.1¢	Won
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m?	Yes	$670	67.0¢	Won
Will Biden say "Ceasefire" at DNC speech?	No	$276	67.0¢	Lost
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting?	Yes	$75	1.5¢	Lost
Nothing Ever Happens	Yes	$830	83.0¢	Won
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?	No	$3.9k	74.0¢	Won
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?	No	$21	71.0¢	Won
Bitcoin all time high by June 30?	No	$420	21.0¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$7.1k	71.0¢	Won
500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April?	Yes	$3.0k	21.6¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025?	No	$1.0k	65.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "cat" during his Nevada rally?	No	$880	51.5¢	Won
Eric Adams a Republican before April?	Yes	$238	8.4¢	Lost
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?	No	$915	61.0¢	Lost
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?	No	$1.9k	87.0¢	Won
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024?	No	$359	6.0¢	Lost
Iran military response by Monday?	No	$3.9k	16.9¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	$1.7k	84.2¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?	No	$6.4k	49.8¢	Won
Will Kamala Harris say "San Francisco" during CNN interview?	Yes	$12	15.0¢	Lost
Will Kamala Harris say "Jew" during DNC speech?	Yes	$971	5.4¢	Lost
Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president?	Yes	$2.3k	74.0¢	Won

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
Yes$2.8k @ 55.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
No$10.3k @ 51.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 15.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Won
No$2.0k @ 60.0¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 77.1¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Won
No$408 @ 13.6¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$522 @ 60.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Won
No$4.2k @ 83.0¢
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
No$3.6k @ 73.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$13.2k @ 44.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$345 @ 0.7¢
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?Won
No$903 @ 76.4¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
No$5.4k @ 80.1¢
NYC mayoral special election in 2024?Won
No$989 @ 85.1¢
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025Won
Yes$10.3k @ 86.0¢
Will Joe Manchin run for Democratic Nominee?Won
No$208 @ 71.6¢
Will London Breed win the San Francisco Mayoral Election?Won
No$3.0k @ 60.0¢
South Korean President impeached by Friday?Lost
Yes$864 @ 30.5¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?Won
No$1.0k @ 50.0¢
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?Won
No$309 @ 83.0¢
Will a Democrat win Nevada US Senate Election?Won
Yes$18.0k @ 72.0¢
Will Trump talk to Jair Bolsonaro in August?Won
No$89 @ 89.0¢
US government shutdown by October 1?Won
Yes$2.7k @ 86.0¢
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?Lost
Yes$530 @ 53.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$734 @ 17.9¢
Will Biden say "Israel" at DNC speech?Won
No$84 @ 66.0¢
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 31.2¢
Will Biden issue more pardons than Trump?Lost
Yes$3.2k @ 45.7¢
ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?Won
No$8.3k @ 79.1¢
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m?Won
Yes$670 @ 67.0¢
Will Biden say "Ceasefire" at DNC speech?Lost
No$276 @ 67.0¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$75 @ 1.5¢
Nothing Ever Happens Won
Yes$830 @ 83.0¢
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?Won
No$3.9k @ 74.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?Won
No$21 @ 71.0¢
Bitcoin all time high by June 30?Lost
No$420 @ 21.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$7.1k @ 71.0¢
500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April?Lost
Yes$3.0k @ 21.6¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025?Lost
No$1.0k @ 65.5¢
Will Trump say "cat" during his Nevada rally?Won
No$880 @ 51.5¢
Eric Adams a Republican before April?Lost
Yes$238 @ 8.4¢
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$915 @ 61.0¢
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?Won
No$1.9k @ 87.0¢
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024?Lost
No$359 @ 6.0¢
Iran military response by Monday?Won
No$3.9k @ 16.9¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Won
No$1.7k @ 84.2¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?Won
No$6.4k @ 49.8¢
Will Kamala Harris say "San Francisco" during CNN interview?Lost
Yes$12 @ 15.0¢
Will Kamala Harris say "Jew" during DNC speech?Lost
Yes$971 @ 5.4¢
Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 74.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	No	$18.7k	62.4¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$15.4k	77.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Politics	No	$14.3k	87.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$10.3k	51.5¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$8.5k	75.3¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$8.2k	68.3¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$7.8k	63.2¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	No	$6.9k	64.4¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$6.8k	40.5¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$6.8k	71.6¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Politics	No	$6.5k	70.2¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$6.0k	60.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4.1k	18.3¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$3.9k	37.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$3.7k	21.3¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$3.4k	2.1¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$3.3k	65.0¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$2.8k	4.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$2.8k	55.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	No	$2.4k	80.0¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.7k	77.1¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Politics	No	$930	31.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$800	8.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$752	20.0¢
No one announced as next James Bond?	Culture	No	$741	74.1¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Politics	Yes	$720	72.0¢
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Culture	Yes	$605	54.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$532	53.2¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Politics	No	$424	84.7¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$408	13.6¢

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
No$18.7k @ 62.4¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$15.4k @ 77.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
No$14.3k @ 87.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$10.3k @ 51.5¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$8.5k @ 75.3¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$8.2k @ 68.3¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$7.8k @ 63.2¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
No$6.9k @ 64.4¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$6.8k @ 40.5¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
No$6.8k @ 71.6¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
No$6.5k @ 70.2¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$6.0k @ 60.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$4.1k @ 18.3¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$3.9k @ 37.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$3.7k @ 21.3¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$3.4k @ 2.1¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$3.3k @ 65.0¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$2.8k @ 4.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$2.8k @ 55.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
No$2.4k @ 80.0¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.7k @ 77.1¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?Politics
No$930 @ 31.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Politics
Yes$800 @ 8.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$752 @ 20.0¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Culture
No$741 @ 74.1¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Politics
Yes$720 @ 72.0¢
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?Culture
Yes$605 @ 54.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$532 @ 53.2¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Politics
No$424 @ 84.7¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Politics
No$408 @ 13.6¢