0x7bb2…682c

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Politics16 bets

  Hit rate

  69% (11/16)

  ROI

  +35%

• Other16 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (8/16)

  ROI

  -17%

• Sports2 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/2)

  ROI

  -100%

• Geopolitics2 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (2/2)

  ROI

  +119%

• Tech1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +20%

• Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?Lost
  No$451 @ 2.9¢
• Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
  No$5.4k @ 80.1¢
• Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?Won
  No$309 @ 83.0¢
• Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
  Yes$734 @ 17.9¢
• Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
  Yes$7.1k @ 71.0¢
• Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
  Yes$7.4k @ 74.0¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
  Yes$765 @ 1.2¢
• US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
  No$8.8k @ 73.5¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
  No$17.0k @ 55.5¢
• Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?Lost
  No$5.9k @ 39.3¢
• Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?Lost
  Yes$1.1k @ 4.1¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
  No$9.8k @ 35.1¢
• Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$1.2k @ 61.0¢
• Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?Lost
  No$1.5k @ 50.7¢
• Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
  Yes$3.8k @ 75.0¢
• US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
  No$11.3k @ 45.0¢
• Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
  Yes$2.2k @ 37.4¢
• Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Won
  Yes$680 @ 68.0¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
  Yes$20.2k @ 49.3¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
  No$14.8k @ 73.3¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
  No$3.9k @ 78.0¢
• Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
  Yes$4.0k @ 38.9¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Lost
  No$6.3k @ 63.0¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
  Yes$8.7k @ 23.8¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Won
  No$22.3k @ 54.6¢
• US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Won
  No$7.8k @ 78.0¢
• Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$3.5k @ 70.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Lost
  Yes$1.7k @ 57.0¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?Won
  No$3.9k @ 83.0¢
• Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?Won
  Yes$5.3k @ 87.0¢
• Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
  No$4.1k @ 18.6¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Won
  No$1.8k @ 61.7¢
• Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Lost
  Yes$2.0k @ 40.0¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Won
  No$4.1k @ 83.0¢
• Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
  Yes$3.0k @ 79.7¢
• Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?Won
  No$30 @ 75.0¢
• Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?Won
  No$1.8k @ 61.0¢

Current positions

• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
  Yes$23.8k @ 47.6¢
• Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
  No$18.7k @ 62.4¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$15.4k @ 77.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
  No$14.3k @ 87.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
  No$13.3k @ 89.0¢
• Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
  No$10.3k @ 51.5¢
• Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
  Yes$8.5k @ 75.3¢
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  No$7.1k @ 71.0¢
• Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
  No$6.9k @ 64.4¢
• Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  No$6.8k @ 71.6¢
• Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
  No$6.5k @ 70.2¢
• Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  Yes$5.0k @ 50.4¢
• Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$3.9k @ 37.3¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
  No$3.7k @ 21.3¢
• Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
  Yes$3.4k @ 2.1¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
  No$3.3k @ 65.0¢
• Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$2.8k @ 4.0¢
• Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
  Yes$2.8k @ 55.0¢
• Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
  No$2.4k @ 80.0¢
• Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Politics
  No$2.4k @ 87.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$2.3k @ 18.5¢
• Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
  Yes$1.7k @ 77.1¢
• Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?Politics
  No$974 @ 97.4¢
• Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?Politics
  No$930 @ 31.0¢
• Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Politics
  Yes$720 @ 72.0¢
• Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?Culture
  Yes$605 @ 54.0¢
• Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
  Yes$532 @ 53.2¢
• Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Politics
  No$424 @ 84.7¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
  Yes$345 @ 0.7¢
• Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$250 @ 2.5¢