0x7b64…8440

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x7b64e09f384b07534dff21859a0d27b823ae8440
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.4pp

ROI

+7%

Win rate

48% @ 41.9¢

Brier

0.172

Resolved

354

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	41% (12/29)	+15%	29
Other	45% (10/22)	-3%	22
Crypto	44% (4/9)	+49%	9
Sports	40% (2/5)	-43%	5
Geopolitics	80% (4/5)	-79%	5
Tech	33% (1/3)	-1%	3

Politics29 bets
Hit rate
41% (12/29)
ROI
+15%
Other22 bets
Hit rate
45% (10/22)
ROI
-3%
Crypto9 bets
Hit rate
44% (4/9)
ROI
+49%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
-43%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
80% (4/5)
ROI
-79%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-1%

Track record

45% hit · 33/73

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$2	65.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	No	$2	33.1¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$3	56.6¢	Won
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$8	63.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$33	83.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$220	26.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$3	86.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$51	40.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$32	11.1¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$35	63.9¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$3	12.5¢	Lost
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	No	$5	55.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?	No	$4	71.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$2	48.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$2	21.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$1	17.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$90	47.2¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$18	3.6¢	Lost
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	$13	27.4¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$3	68.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$2	62.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$121	20.1¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	$19	27.9¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	$5	39.0¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?	No	$5	59.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?	No	$3	67.2¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	$4	82.4¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	$3	1.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$45	69.6¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$310	42.1¢	Won
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	$2	42.2¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	$7	13.7¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	$11	79.8¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$5	8.8¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$6	8.2¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	$2	26.9¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	Yes	$7	80.0¢	Won
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	$2	54.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	$5	61.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$35	85.2¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$4	57.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	$3	24.9¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$67	64.9¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	$1	4.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14?	Yes	$1	5.1¢	Lost
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	No	$6	64.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$109	65.0¢	Won
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$1	58.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	$151	6.3¢	Lost

Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$2 @ 65.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 33.1¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$3 @ 56.6¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
No$8 @ 63.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$33 @ 83.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$220 @ 26.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$3 @ 86.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$51 @ 40.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$32 @ 11.1¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$35 @ 63.9¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$3 @ 12.5¢
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?Lost
No$5 @ 55.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?Won
No$4 @ 71.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$2 @ 48.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 21.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 17.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$90 @ 47.2¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$18 @ 3.6¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
No$13 @ 27.4¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$3 @ 68.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$2 @ 62.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$121 @ 20.1¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Lost
No$19 @ 27.9¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Won
Yes$5 @ 39.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?Won
No$5 @ 59.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?Won
No$3 @ 67.2¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Won
No$4 @ 82.4¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$45 @ 69.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$310 @ 42.1¢
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Won
Yes$2 @ 42.2¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Lost
No$7 @ 13.7¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Won
Yes$11 @ 79.8¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 8.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 8.2¢
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?Lost
No$2 @ 26.9¢
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?Won
Yes$7 @ 80.0¢
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?Lost
Yes$2 @ 54.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 61.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$35 @ 85.2¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 57.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 24.9¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$67 @ 64.9¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.1¢
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?Lost
No$6 @ 64.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$109 @ 65.0¢
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?Lost
Yes$1 @ 58.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$151 @ 6.3¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?	Crypto	No	$41	82.4¢
Netanyahu out by June 30?	Politics	No	$31	96.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Geopolitics	Yes	$24	22.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$17	45.4¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June?	Crypto	No	$17	88.2¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	No	$15	91.6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$15	94.4¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$14	89.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Politics	Yes	$12	18.0¢
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$12	92.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$12	16.0¢
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$12	96.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Politics	No	$11	95.8¢
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?	Sports	No	$11	96.5¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Politics	No	$11	92.2¢
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$9	30.4¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	No	$9	93.5¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$9	60.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Politics	No	$7	70.5¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Politics	No	$7	93.0¢
Trump goes to space in 2026?	Politics	No	$6	96.0¢
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	No	$6	96.2¢
NATO dissolves before 2027?	Politics	No	$6	95.9¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$5	15.1¢
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$5	93.0¢
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?	Politics	No	$4	96.6¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$4	25.9¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$4	40.8¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	No	$4	92.3¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	No	$4	89.6¢

Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?Crypto
No$41 @ 82.4¢
Netanyahu out by June 30?Politics
No$31 @ 96.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
Yes$24 @ 22.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$17 @ 45.4¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June?Crypto
No$17 @ 88.2¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
No$15 @ 91.6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?Politics
No$15 @ 94.4¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Politics
Yes$14 @ 89.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Politics
Yes$12 @ 18.0¢
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$12 @ 92.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$12 @ 16.0¢
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026?Politics
Yes$12 @ 96.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics
No$11 @ 95.8¢
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?Sports
No$11 @ 96.5¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
No$11 @ 92.2¢
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?Crypto
Yes$9 @ 30.4¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
No$9 @ 93.5¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$9 @ 60.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Politics
No$7 @ 70.5¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Politics
No$7 @ 93.0¢
Trump goes to space in 2026?Politics
No$6 @ 96.0¢
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
No$6 @ 96.2¢
NATO dissolves before 2027?Politics
No$6 @ 95.9¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$5 @ 15.1¢
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$5 @ 93.0¢
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?Politics
No$4 @ 96.6¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$4 @ 25.9¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
Yes$4 @ 40.8¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
No$4 @ 92.3¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
No$4 @ 89.6¢