← Smart money
0x77c8…bc8c
SharpEdge
-1.5pp
ROI
+7%
Win rate
6% @ 7.6¢
Brier
0.042
Resolved
4738
Avg size
$42
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 19% (35/180) | +22% | 180 |
| Politics | 14% (9/65) | -3% | 65 |
| Sports | 18% (10/55) | +1% | 55 |
| Geopolitics | 17% (1/6) | +50% | 6 |
| Tech | 0% (0/5) | -100% | 5 |
| Crypto | 33% (1/3) | +81% | 3 |
| Culture | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Other180 bets
- Hit rate
- 19% (35/180)
- ROI
- +22%
- Politics65 bets
- Hit rate
- 14% (9/65)
- ROI
- -3%
- Sports55 bets
- Hit rate
- 18% (10/55)
- ROI
- +1%
- Geopolitics6 bets
- Hit rate
- 17% (1/6)
- ROI
- +50%
- Tech5 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/5)
- ROI
- -100%
- Crypto3 bets
- Hit rate
- 33% (1/3)
- ROI
- +81%
- Culture1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
18% hit · 56/315- Yes$3.2k @ 11.9¢
- Yes$1.4k @ 28.4¢
- Yes$88 @ 2.5¢
- Under$111 @ 3.6¢
- Under$356 @ 7.3¢
- Under$100 @ 5.0¢
- Under$698 @ 29.5¢
- Yes$254 @ 47.0¢
- Under$883 @ 9.4¢
- Yes$32 @ 0.3¢
- Under$923 @ 22.5¢
- Yes$797 @ 11.3¢
- Under$211 @ 8.3¢
- Yes$6 @ 0.1¢
- Under$1.1k @ 4.3¢
- Yes$100 @ 2.0¢
- Under$154 @ 6.9¢
- Under$514 @ 8.5¢
- Under$1.3k @ 24.8¢
- Yes$5 @ 0.1¢
- Yes$641 @ 12.8¢
- Yes$248 @ 2.2¢
- Yes$226 @ 2.0¢
- Under$684 @ 10.3¢
- Under$260 @ 26.0¢
- Yes$461 @ 1.8¢
- Under$53 @ 11.3¢
- Under$1.0k @ 37.8¢
- Under$195 @ 10.7¢
- Under$325 @ 9.5¢
- Under$774 @ 34.7¢
- Yes$290 @ 3.3¢
- Yes$324 @ 3.9¢
- Under$3.5k @ 30.5¢
- Under$1.0k @ 40.3¢
- Yes$19 @ 1.6¢
- Yes$255 @ 1.1¢
- Yes$812 @ 9.5¢
- Under$150 @ 3.5¢
- Yes$420 @ 28.0¢
- Yes$1.6k @ 2.2¢
- Under$119 @ 3.0¢
- Under$263 @ 8.5¢
- Yes$5.5k @ 15.8¢
- Yes$216 @ 6.3¢
- Yes$16 @ 1.5¢
- No$160 @ 8.0¢
- Under$615 @ 19.2¢
- No$1.0k @ 15.4¢
- Under$308 @ 13.1¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Politics | Yes | $2.6k | 26.9¢ |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Politics | No | $700 | 31.5¢ |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? | Tech | No | $460 | 48.3¢ |
| Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | Tech | No | $410 | 45.9¢ |
| Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026? | Politics | No | $250 | 46.6¢ |
| Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | Politics | Yes | $108 | 20.0¢ |
| Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | Tech | Yes | $47 | 36.0¢ |
| Will Elon post "ChatGPT" on X this week? | Tech | Yes | $3 | 16.0¢ |
| Will Elon post "Iran" or "Iranian" on X this week? | Tech | Yes | $3 | 13.0¢ |
| Will Elon post "Tweak" on X this week? | Tech | Yes | $1 | 23.0¢ |
- Yes$2.6k @ 26.9¢
- No$700 @ 31.5¢
- No$460 @ 48.3¢
- No$410 @ 45.9¢
- No$250 @ 46.6¢
- Yes$108 @ 20.0¢
- Yes$47 @ 36.0¢
- Yes$3 @ 16.0¢
- Yes$3 @ 13.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 23.0¢