0x738a…5996

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x738a4849db23670996f14dff96a2bc6a8f885996
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.7pp

ROI

+20%

Win rate

51% @ 42.2¢

Brier

0.176

Resolved

1032

Avg size

$27

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (104/208)	+11%	208
Politics	50% (104/206)	+14%	206
Sports	40% (21/53)	+57%	53
Geopolitics	38% (15/40)	-8%	40
Tech	45% (10/22)	-26%	22
Culture	69% (9/13)	+82%	13
Business	60% (6/10)	+13%	10
Crypto	56% (5/9)	+94%	9
Economy	67% (4/6)	+100%	6
Science	67% (2/3)	+3%	3

Other208 bets
Hit rate
50% (104/208)
ROI
+11%
Politics206 bets
Hit rate
50% (104/206)
ROI
+14%
Sports53 bets
Hit rate
40% (21/53)
ROI
+57%
Geopolitics40 bets
Hit rate
38% (15/40)
ROI
-8%
Tech22 bets
Hit rate
45% (10/22)
ROI
-26%
Culture13 bets
Hit rate
69% (9/13)
ROI
+82%
Business10 bets
Hit rate
60% (6/10)
ROI
+13%
Crypto9 bets
Hit rate
56% (5/9)
ROI
+94%
Economy6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+100%
Science3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+3%

Track record

49% hit · 280/570

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
League City, Texas passes ballot measure approving the police use of Flock Cameras?	No	$0	22.0¢	Won
Will Democrats win 9 or more of the US House seats bordering Mexico in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	$40	30.0¢	Lost
Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	No	$152	76.0¢	Lost
Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?	Yes	$60	74.2¢	Lost
Will Fidelity National Financial (FNF) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$26	25.7¢	Lost
Massachusetts passes jungle primary ballot measure?	No	$103	42.8¢	Won
Houthis capture Taiz city by October 31?	No	$53	66.3¢	Won
Will the Democrats win Sedgwick County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	No	$35	43.3¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win Miami-Dade County in the Florida Senate race in 2026?	No	$70	46.0¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win Grand Traverse County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	$34	41.0¢	Lost
McDonald's (MCD) Q3 global comparable sales growth 1% to 2%?	Yes	$32	40.2¢	Won
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner election?	Yes	$50	55.0¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	$20	41.0¢	Lost
Will the Republican Party win the OH-15 House seat?	Yes	$58	61.0¢	Lost
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat?	No	$42	46.0¢	Lost
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 62-66%?	Yes	$39	30.2¢	Lost
Will Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Q3 Data Center revenue be above $8.8B?	No	$30	85.0¢	Won
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.10T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$53	43.8¢	Lost
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $6B by December 31?	No	$21	33.3¢	Lost
Turek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2?	No	$65	64.0¢	Lost
Will Yum! Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$69	43.2¢	Lost
Collins flips Jackson for Maine Senate by November 2?	No	$100	56.0¢	Won
Will Philip Brown win the 2026 Charlottetown mayoral election?	Yes	$80	50.0¢	Lost
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by October 31?	No	$170	85.0¢	Won
Will Williams (WMB) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$44	43.8¢	Won
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	$140	88.3¢	Won
Will Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$71	44.6¢	Won
Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?	No	$53	39.6¢	Won
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?	No	$65	74.0¢	Won
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?	No	$93	51.2¢	Lost
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Yes	$88	36.0¢	Lost
Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 3 and 6 hours?	Yes	$100	82.0¢	Won
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$21	18.2¢	Lost
Republican House odds dip to 5% by October 31?	Yes	$138	46.0¢	Lost
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$33	17.0¢	Lost
Will Jack Doherty post again on X by October 31?	No	$100	29.0¢	Won
Will Talarico and Paxton debate live by October 31?	No	$100	79.0¢	Won
Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by October 31, 2026?	No	$140	59.7¢	Won
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	Yes	$53	42.0¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$51	72.3¢	Won
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 18?	Yes	$100	68.6¢	Won
Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2?	No	$80	75.0¢	Lost
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	No	$75	56.7¢	Lost
Will Cboe (CBOE) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$63	33.1¢	Lost
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?	Yes	$10	26.0¢	Lost
Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$48	37.1¢	Won
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	Yes	$3	13.0¢	Lost
Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?	No	$92	53.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026?	No	$1	8.0¢	Lost
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$186	1.7¢	Lost

League City, Texas passes ballot measure approving the police use of Flock Cameras?Won
No$0 @ 22.0¢
Will Democrats win 9 or more of the US House seats bordering Mexico in the 2026 midterm elections?Lost
No$40 @ 30.0¢
Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?Lost
No$152 @ 76.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?Lost
Yes$60 @ 74.2¢
Will Fidelity National Financial (FNF) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
Yes$26 @ 25.7¢
Massachusetts passes jungle primary ballot measure?Won
No$103 @ 42.8¢
Houthis capture Taiz city by October 31?Won
No$53 @ 66.3¢
Will the Democrats win Sedgwick County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Lost
No$35 @ 43.3¢
Will the Democrats win Miami-Dade County in the Florida Senate race in 2026?Lost
No$70 @ 46.0¢
Will the Democrats win Grand Traverse County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Lost
No$34 @ 41.0¢
McDonald's (MCD) Q3 global comparable sales growth 1% to 2%?Won
Yes$32 @ 40.2¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner election?Lost
Yes$50 @ 55.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Lost
No$20 @ 41.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the OH-15 House seat?Lost
Yes$58 @ 61.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat?Lost
No$42 @ 46.0¢
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 62-66%?Lost
Yes$39 @ 30.2¢
Will Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Q3 Data Center revenue be above $8.8B?Won
No$30 @ 85.0¢
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.10T at the end of October 2026?Lost
Yes$53 @ 43.8¢
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $6B by December 31?Lost
No$21 @ 33.3¢
Turek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2?Lost
No$65 @ 64.0¢
Will Yum! Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$69 @ 43.2¢
Collins flips Jackson for Maine Senate by November 2?Won
No$100 @ 56.0¢
Will Philip Brown win the 2026 Charlottetown mayoral election?Lost
Yes$80 @ 50.0¢
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by October 31?Won
No$170 @ 85.0¢
Will Williams (WMB) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$44 @ 43.8¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Won
No$140 @ 88.3¢
Will Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$71 @ 44.6¢
Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?Won
No$53 @ 39.6¢
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?Won
No$65 @ 74.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?Lost
No$93 @ 51.2¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Lost
Yes$88 @ 36.0¢
Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 3 and 6 hours?Won
Yes$100 @ 82.0¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$21 @ 18.2¢
Republican House odds dip to 5% by October 31?Lost
Yes$138 @ 46.0¢
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$33 @ 17.0¢
Will Jack Doherty post again on X by October 31?Won
No$100 @ 29.0¢
Will Talarico and Paxton debate live by October 31?Won
No$100 @ 79.0¢
Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by October 31, 2026?Won
No$140 @ 59.7¢
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?Lost
Yes$53 @ 42.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Won
Yes$51 @ 72.3¢
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 18?Won
Yes$100 @ 68.6¢
Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2?Lost
No$80 @ 75.0¢
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?Lost
No$75 @ 56.7¢
Will Cboe (CBOE) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$63 @ 33.1¢
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?Lost
Yes$10 @ 26.0¢
Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$48 @ 37.1¢
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 13.0¢
Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?Won
No$92 @ 53.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 8.0¢
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$186 @ 1.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	Politics	No	$152	76.0¢
Will Mikaela Waltersson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Halland?	Politics	Yes	$145	50.0¢
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	—	No	$131	35.0¢
Will Microsoft launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?	Tech	No	$130	63.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?	Business	Yes	$115	58.0¢
Will Víctor Robert De La Cruz Rosas win the next Trujillo mayoral elections?	Politics	No	$114	63.0¢
Will Cloud9 make a roster change by December?	Sports	Yes	$108	53.3¢
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $175B by December 31?	Other	No	$104	88.0¢
Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	Politics	Yes	$101	53.2¢
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Politics	No	$100	43.9¢
Will invy leave Paper Rex in 2026?	Sports	No	$100	66.6¢
Will Manuel Enrique Vera Paredes win the next Arequipa mayoral elections?	Politics	No	$99	52.7¢
Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?	Politics	No	$99	66.0¢
Will Dplus KIA make a roster change by December?	Sports	Yes	$94	40.0¢
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?	Politics	Yes	$93	55.0¢
Will Fnatic make a roster change by December?	Sports	Yes	$90	46.2¢
NATO downs another Russian drone before Russia x Ukraine peace talks?	Politics	Yes	$89	38.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$89	20.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$88	36.0¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$85	53.9¢
Will Soneium launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$85	78.7¢
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Politics	Yes	$84	56.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$84	70.0¢
Will Philip Brown win the 2026 Charlottetown mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$80	50.0¢
Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2?	Politics	No	$80	75.0¢
Will Asuna leave 100 Thieves in 2026?	Sports	No	$78	65.0¢
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in November 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$77	77.0¢
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	Crypto	No	$75	56.7¢
Will Babalwa Lobishe be the next mayor of Nelson Mandela Bay?	Politics	No	$74	64.4¢
Will G2 Esports make a roster change by December?	Sports	Yes	$73	27.3¢

Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?Politics
No$152 @ 76.0¢
Will Mikaela Waltersson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Halland?Politics
Yes$145 @ 50.0¢
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?—
No$131 @ 35.0¢
Will Microsoft launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?Tech
No$130 @ 63.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?Business
Yes$115 @ 58.0¢
Will Víctor Robert De La Cruz Rosas win the next Trujillo mayoral elections?Politics
No$114 @ 63.0¢
Will Cloud9 make a roster change by December?Sports
Yes$108 @ 53.3¢
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $175B by December 31?Other
No$104 @ 88.0¢
Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?Politics
Yes$101 @ 53.2¢
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?Politics
No$100 @ 43.9¢
Will invy leave Paper Rex in 2026?Sports
No$100 @ 66.6¢
Will Manuel Enrique Vera Paredes win the next Arequipa mayoral elections?Politics
No$99 @ 52.7¢
Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?Politics
No$99 @ 66.0¢
Will Dplus KIA make a roster change by December?Sports
Yes$94 @ 40.0¢
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?Politics
Yes$93 @ 55.0¢
Will Fnatic make a roster change by December?Sports
Yes$90 @ 46.2¢
NATO downs another Russian drone before Russia x Ukraine peace talks?Politics
Yes$89 @ 38.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Politics
Yes$89 @ 20.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$88 @ 36.0¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$85 @ 53.9¢
Will Soneium launch a token by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$85 @ 78.7¢
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026?Politics
Yes$84 @ 56.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat?Politics
Yes$84 @ 70.0¢
Will Philip Brown win the 2026 Charlottetown mayoral election?Politics
Yes$80 @ 50.0¢
Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2?Politics
No$80 @ 75.0¢
Will Asuna leave 100 Thieves in 2026?Sports
No$78 @ 65.0¢
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in November 2026?Geopolitics
No$77 @ 77.0¢
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?Crypto
No$75 @ 56.7¢
Will Babalwa Lobishe be the next mayor of Nelson Mandela Bay?Politics
No$74 @ 64.4¢
Will G2 Esports make a roster change by December?Sports
Yes$73 @ 27.3¢