0x738a…5996

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x738a4849db23670996f14dff96a2bc6a8f885996
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.4pp

ROI

+24%

Win rate

50% @ 42.0¢

Brier

0.171

Resolved

751

Avg size

$23

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (66/133)	+10%	133
Politics	52% (57/110)	+29%	110
Sports	39% (18/46)	+65%	46
Geopolitics	36% (8/22)	-7%	22
Crypto	71% (5/7)	+147%	7
Tech	33% (2/6)	-93%	6
Culture	33% (1/3)	+36%	3
Economy	50% (1/2)	+61%	2
Science	100% (1/1)	+19%	1

Other133 bets
Hit rate
50% (66/133)
ROI
+10%
Politics110 bets
Hit rate
52% (57/110)
ROI
+29%
Sports46 bets
Hit rate
39% (18/46)
ROI
+65%
Geopolitics22 bets
Hit rate
36% (8/22)
ROI
-7%
Crypto7 bets
Hit rate
71% (5/7)
ROI
+147%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
-93%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+36%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+61%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+19%

Track record

48% hit · 159/330

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	Yes	$3	13.0¢	Lost
Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?	No	$92	53.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026?	No	$1	8.0¢	Lost
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$186	1.7¢	Lost
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$72	68.1¢	Won
Will Rodri join Real Madrid?	No	$118	19.3¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$19	38.5¢	Won
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$23	3.9¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	Yes	$98	41.6¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$308	72.0¢	Won
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$51	41.0¢	Lost
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30?	Yes	$135	86.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	$70	86.0¢	Won
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	No	$269	64.4¢	Won
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	$17	84.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026?	No	$31	61.0¢	Won
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?	Yes	$105	74.8¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	No	$30	28.6¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	$105	72.8¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$50	6.4¢	Lost
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$14	70.0¢	Won
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30?	No	$12	63.0¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	No	$39	52.7¢	Won
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	No	$7	38.0¢	Won
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	$3	40.0¢	Lost
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$31	1.5¢	Lost
Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17?	Yes	$5	5.0¢	Lost
FDA approves argenx's Vyvgart?	Yes	$2	64.0¢	Won
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?	Yes	$80	77.9¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$62	88.0¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$28	12.0¢	Won
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	No	$5	8.7¢	Lost
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	Yes	$120	79.8¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	No	$6	55.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$28	30.0¢	Lost
James Comey in jail by June 30?	No	$17	83.0¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$76	47.4¢	Lost
Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	$14	20.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?	Yes	$30	53.3¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	Yes	$8	8.0¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$9	2.1¢	Lost
Will the US House pass the Sunshine Protection Act by July 17?	Yes	$60	48.8¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$12	13.0¢	Lost
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$61	53.9¢	Won
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	No	$11	79.0¢	Won
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?	No	$23	87.3¢	Won
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?	Yes	$12	24.0¢	Lost
US bank failure by June 30?	No	$2	63.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$51	18.8¢	Lost
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	Knicks	$10	44.0¢	Won

Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 13.0¢
Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?Won
No$92 @ 53.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 8.0¢
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$186 @ 1.7¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$72 @ 68.1¢
Will Rodri join Real Madrid?Won
No$118 @ 19.3¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$19 @ 38.5¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
No$23 @ 3.9¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Won
Yes$98 @ 41.6¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$308 @ 72.0¢
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$51 @ 41.0¢
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30?Won
Yes$135 @ 86.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Won
No$70 @ 86.0¢
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Won
No$269 @ 64.4¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Won
No$17 @ 84.0¢
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026?Won
No$31 @ 61.0¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?Lost
Yes$105 @ 74.8¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$30 @ 28.6¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
No$105 @ 72.8¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 6.4¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
No$14 @ 70.0¢
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30?Won
No$12 @ 63.0¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
No$39 @ 52.7¢
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?Won
No$7 @ 38.0¢
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?Lost
Yes$3 @ 40.0¢
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$31 @ 1.5¢
Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.0¢
FDA approves argenx's Vyvgart?Won
Yes$2 @ 64.0¢
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?Won
Yes$80 @ 77.9¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$62 @ 88.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$28 @ 12.0¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 8.7¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Won
Yes$120 @ 79.8¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$6 @ 55.0¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$28 @ 30.0¢
James Comey in jail by June 30?Won
No$17 @ 83.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$76 @ 47.4¢
Will Putin visit China by May 31?Lost
No$14 @ 20.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?Won
Yes$30 @ 53.3¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?Lost
Yes$8 @ 8.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$9 @ 2.1¢
Will the US House pass the Sunshine Protection Act by July 17?Won
Yes$60 @ 48.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$12 @ 13.0¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Won
No$61 @ 53.9¢
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?Won
No$11 @ 79.0¢
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?Won
No$23 @ 87.3¢
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?Lost
Yes$12 @ 24.0¢
US bank failure by June 30?Won
No$2 @ 63.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
Yes$51 @ 18.8¢
Knicks vs. CavaliersWon
Knicks$10 @ 44.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$197	53.5¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by September 30?	Tech	No	$175	56.3¢
Will Heidi Overton be confirmed as FDA Commissioner by September 30?	Politics	No	$165	30.9¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$159	63.5¢
Will Mikaela Waltersson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Halland?	Politics	Yes	$145	50.0¢
Will Mendonça Filho win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?	Politics	No	$132	52.9¢
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	—	No	$131	35.0¢
Will Delegado Éder Mauro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?	Politics	Yes	$130	56.5¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$119	38.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?	Business	Yes	$115	58.0¢
Will Víctor Robert De La Cruz Rosas win the next Trujillo mayoral elections?	Politics	No	$114	63.0¢
Will Henrik Fritzon be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Skåne?	Politics	No	$112	41.0¢
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$111	11.3¢
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Politics	Yes	$109	70.0¢
Will Cloud9 make a roster change by December?	Sports	Yes	$108	53.3¢
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $220B by September 30?	Other	No	$104	65.2¢
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $175B by December 31?	Other	No	$104	88.0¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$102	29.0¢
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$100	8.0¢
Will invy leave Paper Rex in 2026?	Sports	No	$100	66.6¢
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.55 and $0.60 on September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$99	70.8¢
Will Manuel Enrique Vera Paredes win the next Arequipa mayoral elections?	Politics	No	$99	52.7¢
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on September 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$98	60.1¢
Will Dplus KIA make a roster change by December?	Sports	Yes	$94	40.0¢
Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$93	32.9¢
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?	Politics	Yes	$93	55.0¢
Will Trump praise Roger Penske in September?	Politics	Yes	$90	46.0¢
Will Fnatic make a roster change by December?	Sports	Yes	$90	46.2¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$89	20.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$88	36.0¢

Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$197 @ 53.5¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $975B by September 30?Tech
No$175 @ 56.3¢
Will Heidi Overton be confirmed as FDA Commissioner by September 30?Politics
No$165 @ 30.9¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Tech
No$159 @ 63.5¢
Will Mikaela Waltersson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Halland?Politics
Yes$145 @ 50.0¢
Will Mendonça Filho win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?Politics
No$132 @ 52.9¢
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?—
No$131 @ 35.0¢
Will Delegado Éder Mauro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?Politics
Yes$130 @ 56.5¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Politics
Yes$119 @ 38.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?Business
Yes$115 @ 58.0¢
Will Víctor Robert De La Cruz Rosas win the next Trujillo mayoral elections?Politics
No$114 @ 63.0¢
Will Henrik Fritzon be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Skåne?Politics
No$112 @ 41.0¢
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by September 30?Politics
Yes$111 @ 11.3¢
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?Politics
Yes$109 @ 70.0¢
Will Cloud9 make a roster change by December?Sports
Yes$108 @ 53.3¢
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $220B by September 30?Other
No$104 @ 65.2¢
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $175B by December 31?Other
No$104 @ 88.0¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?Politics
Yes$102 @ 29.0¢
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$100 @ 8.0¢
Will invy leave Paper Rex in 2026?Sports
No$100 @ 66.6¢
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.55 and $0.60 on September 30, 2026?Tech
No$99 @ 70.8¢
Will Manuel Enrique Vera Paredes win the next Arequipa mayoral elections?Politics
No$99 @ 52.7¢
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on September 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$98 @ 60.1¢
Will Dplus KIA make a roster change by December?Sports
Yes$94 @ 40.0¢
Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$93 @ 32.9¢
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?Politics
Yes$93 @ 55.0¢
Will Trump praise Roger Penske in September?Politics
Yes$90 @ 46.0¢
Will Fnatic make a roster change by December?Sports
Yes$90 @ 46.2¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Politics
Yes$89 @ 20.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$88 @ 36.0¢