← Smart money
0x71e1…45f0
SharpROI
+23%
Win rate
47%
Brier
0.166
Resolved
899
Avg size
$164
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 50% (1/2) | -74% | 2 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (1/1) | +28% | 1 |
- Crypto2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- -74%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +28%
Track record
67% hit · 2/3| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | No | $310 | 34.5¢ | Won |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Yes | $3.1k | 57.3¢ | Lost |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | No | $5.6k | 78.1¢ | Won |
- No$310 @ 34.5¢
- Yes$3.1k @ 57.3¢
- No$5.6k @ 78.1¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
- No$11.0k @ 75.3¢
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?GeopoliticsYes$9.5k @ 52.8¢
- No$8.4k @ 93.5¢
- No$6.3k @ 88.0¢
- Yes$4.9k @ 39.7¢
- Yes$3.7k @ 87.2¢
- No$3.6k @ 99.7¢
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?ScienceNo$3.3k @ 90.8¢
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?PoliticsYes$2.8k @ 46.0¢
- Yes$2.4k @ 27.2¢
- Yes$2.3k @ 64.5¢
- Yes$2.1k @ 75.0¢
- No$1.7k @ 99.6¢
- No$1.6k @ 82.3¢
- No$1.2k @ 36.5¢
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?PoliticsYes$1.2k @ 27.0¢
- No$1.2k @ 66.0¢
- No$1.2k @ 18.8¢
- No$900 @ 70.4¢
- Yes$831 @ 77.0¢
- Yes$762 @ 14.2¢
- No$675 @ 75.0¢
- Yes$594 @ 33.0¢
- No$514 @ 15.0¢
- No$498 @ 99.6¢
- No$406 @ 33.2¢
- No$254 @ 99.0¢
- Yes$169 @ 55.2¢
- No$148 @ 74.0¢
- No$146 @ 73.0¢