0x71ab…f015

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x71abe97b83eaba3f06cb04fd4d9a03ee37d2f015
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+16.8pp

ROI

+60%

Win rate

59% @ 42.6¢

Brier

0.171

Resolved

2883

Avg size

$113

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	56% (132/237)	+55%	237
Politics	59% (36/61)	+24%	61
Geopolitics	67% (26/39)	+55%	39
Economy	50% (2/4)	+64%	4
Crypto	33% (1/3)	-43%	3
Sports	50% (1/2)	+205%	2

Other237 bets
Hit rate
56% (132/237)
ROI
+55%
Politics61 bets
Hit rate
59% (36/61)
ROI
+24%
Geopolitics39 bets
Hit rate
67% (26/39)
ROI
+55%
Economy4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+64%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-43%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+205%

Track record

57% hit · 198/346

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?	No	$117	29.3¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?	No	$89	8.6¢	Lost
Will Copper (HG) hit (HIGH) $6.30 by end of February?	Yes	$67	57.9¢	Lost
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	Yes	$282	15.2¢	Lost
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$1.2k	52.6¢	Won
Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31?	No	$64	19.9¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	$136	66.2¢	Won
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$1.0k	53.5¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Yes	$1.7k	20.2¢	Won
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	$55	2.0¢	Lost
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 February 16-22?	No	$180	72.0¢	Lost
Enhanced Games: Men’s 100m Sprint World Record Broken?	No	$348	87.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$530	53.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?	No	$100	25.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	$525	66.6¢	Won
Will Copper (HG) settle over $6.60 on the final trading day of February 2026?	No	$72	60.0¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$2.9k	72.6¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?	No	$402	18.0¢	Lost
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?	No	$80	20.0¢	Won
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by May 31?	No	$3	1.4¢	Lost
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in April?	Yes	$253	9.2¢	Lost
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February?	Yes	$195	9.3¢	Lost
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?	No	$426	81.7¢	Won
Will gas hit $4.25 (High) by July 31?	No	$706	76.5¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?	No	$686	79.3¢	Won
Will Copper (HG) settle over $6.00 on the final trading day of February 2026?	No	$105	45.5¢	Lost
Will Copper (HG) settle over $6.00 on the final trading day of February 2026?	Yes	$94	71.2¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$609	82.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$1.6k	80.9¢	Won
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?	No	$69	63.0¢	Won
Will Meta dip to $640 in April?	Yes	$12	80.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$3.9k	38.7¢	Won
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $310 on February 20?	Yes	$2	11.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	No	$156	73.0¢	Won
Will Amazon reach $216 in March?	No	$85	17.0¢	Lost
Will Nik Airball win at Hustler Casino on Friday?	No	$18	35.0¢	Lost
Will Nik Airball win at Hustler Casino on Friday?	Yes	$0	10.0¢	Won
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	$23	4.5¢	Lost
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$2.6k	53.1¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	No	$1.5k	85.7¢	Won
Will gas hit (Low) $3.00 by March 31?	Yes	$34	2.8¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA reach $192 in April?	Yes	$126	24.9¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 20?	Yes	$47	21.0¢	Lost
Will Copper (HG) hit (HIGH) $7.00 by end of February?	No	$20	55.0¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?	No	$139	84.8¢	Won
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the September interest rate announcement?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$11.2k	70.8¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?	No	$59	80.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 on February 20?	Yes	$5	24.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$4.6k	12.8¢	Lost

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?Lost
No$117 @ 29.3¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?Lost
No$89 @ 8.6¢
Will Copper (HG) hit (HIGH) $6.30 by end of February?Lost
Yes$67 @ 57.9¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Lost
Yes$282 @ 15.2¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$1.2k @ 52.6¢
Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31?Lost
No$64 @ 19.9¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Won
No$136 @ 66.2¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 53.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 20.2¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Lost
Yes$55 @ 2.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 February 16-22?Lost
No$180 @ 72.0¢
Enhanced Games: Men’s 100m Sprint World Record Broken?Won
No$348 @ 87.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$530 @ 53.0¢
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?Won
No$100 @ 25.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Won
No$525 @ 66.6¢
Will Copper (HG) settle over $6.60 on the final trading day of February 2026?Won
No$72 @ 60.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$2.9k @ 72.6¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?Lost
No$402 @ 18.0¢
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Won
No$80 @ 20.0¢
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by May 31?Lost
No$3 @ 1.4¢
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in April?Lost
Yes$253 @ 9.2¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February?Lost
Yes$195 @ 9.3¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?Won
No$426 @ 81.7¢
Will gas hit $4.25 (High) by July 31?Won
No$706 @ 76.5¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?Won
No$686 @ 79.3¢
Will Copper (HG) settle over $6.00 on the final trading day of February 2026?Lost
No$105 @ 45.5¢
Will Copper (HG) settle over $6.00 on the final trading day of February 2026?Won
Yes$94 @ 71.2¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$609 @ 82.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$1.6k @ 80.9¢
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?Won
No$69 @ 63.0¢
Will Meta dip to $640 in April?Won
Yes$12 @ 80.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$3.9k @ 38.7¢
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $310 on February 20?Won
Yes$2 @ 11.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?Won
No$156 @ 73.0¢
Will Amazon reach $216 in March?Lost
No$85 @ 17.0¢
Will Nik Airball win at Hustler Casino on Friday?Lost
No$18 @ 35.0¢
Will Nik Airball win at Hustler Casino on Friday?Won
Yes$0 @ 10.0¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$23 @ 4.5¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$2.6k @ 53.1¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Won
No$1.5k @ 85.7¢
Will gas hit (Low) $3.00 by March 31?Lost
Yes$34 @ 2.8¢
Will NVIDIA reach $192 in April?Won
Yes$126 @ 24.9¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 20?Lost
Yes$47 @ 21.0¢
Will Copper (HG) hit (HIGH) $7.00 by end of February?Won
No$20 @ 55.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?Won
No$139 @ 84.8¢
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the September interest rate announcement?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
No$11.2k @ 70.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?Won
No$59 @ 80.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 on February 20?Lost
Yes$5 @ 24.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$4.6k @ 12.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$10.6k	83.5¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$10.4k	76.9¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$8.8k	83.8¢
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	Politics	No	$8.2k	88.1¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	No	$7.6k	78.7¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?	Culture	No	$3.9k	86.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.0k	54.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.7k	48.3¢
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31	Politics	Yes	$1.4k	16.0¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	34.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$955	81.4¢
Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Tech	No	$928	92.8¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$924	22.2¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$797	78.5¢
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Tech	No	$793	71.8¢
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	Business	No	$770	77.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$728	33.1¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Tech	No	$627	18.8¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$600	30.0¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$580	77.0¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	Crypto	No	$574	70.9¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Tech	No	$567	51.1¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Tech	No	$506	9.9¢
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$488	15.6¢
Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Tech	No	$454	61.7¢
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$450	90.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$402	1.3¢
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$397	7.0¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$390	78.0¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$317	15.3¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$10.6k @ 83.5¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
No$10.4k @ 76.9¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?Geopolitics
No$8.8k @ 83.8¢
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?Politics
No$8.2k @ 88.1¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
No$7.6k @ 78.7¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?Culture
No$3.9k @ 86.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$3.0k @ 54.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$1.7k @ 48.3¢
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31Politics
Yes$1.4k @ 16.0¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 34.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$955 @ 81.4¢
Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Tech
No$928 @ 92.8¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$924 @ 22.2¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?Geopolitics
No$797 @ 78.5¢
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Tech
No$793 @ 71.8¢
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Business
No$770 @ 77.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Tech
No$728 @ 33.1¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Tech
No$627 @ 18.8¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$600 @ 30.0¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$580 @ 77.0¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?Crypto
No$574 @ 70.9¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Tech
No$567 @ 51.1¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Tech
No$506 @ 9.9¢
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?Crypto
Yes$488 @ 15.6¢
Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Tech
No$454 @ 61.7¢
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$450 @ 90.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
Yes$402 @ 1.3¢
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by September 30?Politics
Yes$397 @ 7.0¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$390 @ 78.0¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$317 @ 15.3¢