0x71ab…f015

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x71abe97b83eaba3f06cb04fd4d9a03ee37d2f015
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.0pp

ROI

+24%

Win rate

32% @ 28.2¢

Brier

0.057

Resolved

547

Avg size

$63

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (12/24)	+75%	24
Geopolitics	40% (4/10)	+29%	10
Politics	75% (6/8)	+8%	8
Crypto	33% (1/3)	-43%	3

Other24 bets
Hit rate
50% (12/24)
ROI
+75%
Geopolitics10 bets
Hit rate
40% (4/10)
ROI
+29%
Politics8 bets
Hit rate
75% (6/8)
ROI
+8%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-43%

Track record

51% hit · 23/45

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	No	$5.2k	30.2¢	Lost
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	Yes	$158	12.6¢	Lost
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	$55	2.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$530	53.0¢	Won
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?	No	$80	20.0¢	Won
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by May 31?	No	$3	1.4¢	Lost
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in April?	Yes	$104	6.9¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$1.6k	80.9¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$290	58.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$388	48.5¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	Yes	$58	8.6¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	No	$1.8k	38.0¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$267	88.9¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	$76	3.8¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$735	36.8¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of April 27 2026?	Yes	$0	3.0¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$534	8.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.9k	36.5¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	$417	69.5¢	Won
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	$9	2.8¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	$516	86.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	$286	57.2¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	$195	10.5¢	Lost
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	Yes	$111	2.0¢	Lost
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on April 24?	Yes	$74	36.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?	Yes	$80	4.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$1.2k	44.0¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	$10.7k	81.7¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June?	Yes	$35	3.5¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	$3.5k	88.8¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	No	$270	54.0¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	No	$71	3.1¢	Lost
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	No	$275	55.0¢	Won
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	$50	3.6¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	$971	53.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	No	$896	81.5¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	$14	5.0¢	Lost
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	No	$60	4.1¢	Lost
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in April?	Yes	$152	6.6¢	Lost
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?	Yes	$55	55.0¢	Won
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	No	$264	88.1¢	Won
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?	No	$384	64.0¢	Won
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?	Yes	$3	0.8¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	No	$253	6.7¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	$13	62.0¢	Won

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?Lost
No$5.2k @ 30.2¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Lost
Yes$158 @ 12.6¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Lost
Yes$55 @ 2.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$530 @ 53.0¢
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Won
No$80 @ 20.0¢
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by May 31?Lost
No$3 @ 1.4¢
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in April?Lost
Yes$104 @ 6.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$1.6k @ 80.9¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$290 @ 58.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$388 @ 48.5¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?Lost
Yes$58 @ 8.6¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?Won
No$1.8k @ 38.0¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$267 @ 88.9¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Lost
Yes$76 @ 3.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$735 @ 36.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of April 27 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 3.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$534 @ 8.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 36.5¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Won
Yes$417 @ 69.5¢
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Lost
Yes$9 @ 2.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Won
No$516 @ 86.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?Won
No$286 @ 57.2¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$195 @ 10.5¢
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?Lost
Yes$111 @ 2.0¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on April 24?Won
Yes$74 @ 36.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?Lost
Yes$80 @ 4.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$1.2k @ 44.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?Won
No$10.7k @ 81.7¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June?Lost
Yes$35 @ 3.5¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?Won
No$3.5k @ 88.8¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?Won
No$270 @ 54.0¢
Will Trump visit China by June 30?Lost
No$71 @ 3.1¢
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Won
No$275 @ 55.0¢
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Lost
Yes$50 @ 3.6¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?Won
No$971 @ 53.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Won
No$896 @ 81.5¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?Lost
Yes$14 @ 5.0¢
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Lost
No$60 @ 4.1¢
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in April?Lost
Yes$152 @ 6.6¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?Won
Yes$55 @ 55.0¢
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?Won
No$264 @ 88.1¢
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?Won
No$384 @ 64.0¢
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?Lost
No$253 @ 6.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Won
No$13 @ 62.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Politics	No	$15.0k	86.5¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	No	$9.2k	75.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Politics	No	$7.8k	40.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Geopolitics	No	$5.8k	85.8¢
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	Politics	No	$4.9k	85.5¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$4.7k	70.2¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$4.2k	76.5¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Politics	No	$2.8k	92.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$1.2k	76.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.0k	73.7¢
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$488	15.6¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Politics	No	$457	91.4¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$456	14.3¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$390	78.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Tech	No	$335	67.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	—	Yes	$305	61.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	—	No	$273	91.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$201	8.9¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	—	Yes	$194	39.0¢
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Geopolitics	No	$115	97.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?	—	No	$110	96.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?	—	No	$97	96.5¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$70	7.2¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	—	No	$64	3.7¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$57	18.9¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Tech	No	$54	21.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?	—	Yes	$36	14.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$17	26.0¢
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Geopolitics	No	$9	55.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?	—	No	$9	90.0¢

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Politics
No$15.0k @ 86.5¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
No$9.2k @ 75.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Politics
No$7.8k @ 40.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
No$5.8k @ 85.8¢
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?Politics
No$4.9k @ 85.5¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
No$4.7k @ 70.2¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?Geopolitics
No$4.2k @ 76.5¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Politics
No$2.8k @ 92.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?—
Yes$1.2k @ 76.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
No$1.0k @ 73.7¢
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?Crypto
Yes$488 @ 15.6¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Politics
No$457 @ 91.4¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$456 @ 14.3¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$390 @ 78.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Tech
No$335 @ 67.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?—
Yes$305 @ 61.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?—
No$273 @ 91.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?Tech
Yes$201 @ 8.9¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?—
Yes$194 @ 39.0¢
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Geopolitics
No$115 @ 97.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?—
No$110 @ 96.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?—
No$97 @ 96.5¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$70 @ 7.2¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?—
No$64 @ 3.7¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$57 @ 18.9¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Tech
No$54 @ 21.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?—
Yes$36 @ 14.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$17 @ 26.0¢
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Geopolitics
No$9 @ 55.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?—
No$9 @ 90.0¢