0x7130…5387

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x7130014ced1559f3fb7565524873878e94635387
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.7pp

ROI

+16%

Win rate

66% @ 53.2¢

Brier

0.189

Resolved

584

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	46% (23/50)	+38%	50
Other	59% (29/49)	-33%	49
Geopolitics	60% (12/20)	+28%	20
Sports	46% (6/13)	-25%	13
Science	43% (3/7)	+45%	7
Economy	67% (2/3)	+74%	3
Crypto	100% (3/3)	+113%	3

Politics50 bets
Hit rate
46% (23/50)
ROI
+38%
Other49 bets
Hit rate
59% (29/49)
ROI
-33%
Geopolitics20 bets
Hit rate
60% (12/20)
ROI
+28%
Sports13 bets
Hit rate
46% (6/13)
ROI
-25%
Science7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
+45%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+74%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+113%

Track record

54% hit · 78/145

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$25	55.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	$23	74.1¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$11	77.6¢	Lost
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$55	54.0¢	Won
Spurs vs. Knicks	Knicks	$25	8.0¢	Lost
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner	LGD Gaming	$9	50.0¢	Won
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Under	$4	76.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 29?	No	$32	63.4¢	Won
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	$1	8.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	$19	84.7¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$159	72.3¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$40	82.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$134	41.4¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$5	77.7¢	Won
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	Yes	$3	60.0¢	Lost
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$29	76.1¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	No	$21	86.0¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	$32	20.9¢	Lost
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$7	56.3¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$2	5.1¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 4?	Yes	$4	70.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$9	31.8¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$124	81.4¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$13	40.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$108	68.8¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$3	11.1¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?	No	$3	88.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$0	15.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$93	41.9¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 4?	Yes	$5	70.0¢	Won
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	15.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	Yes	$3	6.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on July 2?	No	$11	86.6¢	Won
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels	Colorado Rockies	$16	73.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$26	36.1¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Lost
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners	New York Mets	$6	23.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	No	$22	86.9¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$8	63.0¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$83	41.4¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	No	$12	61.0¢	Won
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$3	13.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$21	22.7¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 31?	Yes	$1	10.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	$15	20.3¢	Lost
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	$4	8.8¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	$103	13.2¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	No	$0	7.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?	Yes	$1	54.0¢	Lost

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$25 @ 55.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Won
No$23 @ 74.1¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$11 @ 77.6¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$55 @ 54.0¢
Spurs vs. KnicksLost
Knicks$25 @ 8.0¢
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 WinnerWon
LGD Gaming$9 @ 50.0¢
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5Won
Under$4 @ 76.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 29?Won
No$32 @ 63.4¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?Won
No$19 @ 84.7¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$159 @ 72.3¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$40 @ 82.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$134 @ 41.4¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$5 @ 77.7¢
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 60.0¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$29 @ 76.1¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Won
No$21 @ 86.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Lost
Yes$32 @ 20.9¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$7 @ 56.3¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$2 @ 5.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 4?Won
Yes$4 @ 70.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$9 @ 31.8¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
No$124 @ 81.4¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 40.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$108 @ 68.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$3 @ 11.1¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?Won
No$3 @ 88.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 15.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$93 @ 41.9¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 4?Won
Yes$5 @ 70.0¢
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 15.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 6.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on July 2?Won
No$11 @ 86.6¢
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles AngelsWon
Colorado Rockies$16 @ 73.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$26 @ 36.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
New York Mets vs. Seattle MarinersLost
New York Mets$6 @ 23.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Lost
No$22 @ 86.9¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$8 @ 63.0¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$83 @ 41.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?Won
No$12 @ 61.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 13.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$21 @ 22.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 20.3¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Lost
Yes$4 @ 8.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
Yes$103 @ 13.2¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Lost
No$0 @ 7.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?Lost
Yes$1 @ 54.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	Politics	No	$168	92.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$154	84.0¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$107	81.8¢
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31	Politics	Yes	$57	17.2¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$51	36.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$47	58.1¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$32	53.3¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	Crypto	No	$32	71.1¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Tech	No	$28	51.7¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$19	35.0¢
Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Tech	No	$19	62.8¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Tech	No	$18	16.4¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Tech	No	$16	16.1¢
Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Tech	No	$16	93.2¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$14	31.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$12	1.4¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$11	39.3¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$9	9.0¢
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$8	14.6¢
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	Crypto	No	$8	17.0¢
USMCA extended in 2026?	Politics	No	$8	79.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Politics	Yes	$8	32.0¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$8	17.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$8	12.0¢
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Economy	No	$7	25.0¢
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$7	7.2¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$7	35.0¢
Will USD be less than 2.0M Iranian rials on December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$7	15.3¢
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Tech	No	$7	66.0¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$6	13.0¢

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?Politics
No$168 @ 92.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$154 @ 84.0¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
No$107 @ 81.8¢
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31Politics
Yes$57 @ 17.2¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$51 @ 36.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$47 @ 58.1¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$32 @ 53.3¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?Crypto
No$32 @ 71.1¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Tech
No$28 @ 51.7¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Tech
No$19 @ 35.0¢
Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Tech
No$19 @ 62.8¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Tech
No$18 @ 16.4¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Tech
No$16 @ 16.1¢
Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Tech
No$16 @ 93.2¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$14 @ 31.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
Yes$12 @ 1.4¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?Tech
Yes$11 @ 39.3¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
Yes$9 @ 9.0¢
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$8 @ 14.6¢
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?Crypto
No$8 @ 17.0¢
USMCA extended in 2026?Politics
No$8 @ 79.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Politics
Yes$8 @ 32.0¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$8 @ 17.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$8 @ 12.0¢
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Economy
No$7 @ 25.0¢
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by September 30?Politics
Yes$7 @ 7.2¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$7 @ 35.0¢
Will USD be less than 2.0M Iranian rials on December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$7 @ 15.3¢
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Tech
No$7 @ 66.0¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$6 @ 13.0¢