0x7124…70c1

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x712433f69c169ebaaa67ce13f3f66f54575e70c1
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.2pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

61% @ 55.1¢

Brier

0.161

Resolved

1812

Avg size

$225

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	54% (181/337)	+13%	337
Politics	64% (23/36)	+9%	36
Geopolitics	64% (7/11)	-3%	11
Economy	80% (4/5)	+7%	5
Sports	33% (1/3)	+149%	3
Tech	50% (1/2)	+13%	2

Other337 bets
Hit rate
54% (181/337)
ROI
+13%
Politics36 bets
Hit rate
64% (23/36)
ROI
+9%
Geopolitics11 bets
Hit rate
64% (7/11)
ROI
-3%
Economy5 bets
Hit rate
80% (4/5)
ROI
+7%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+149%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+13%

Track record

55% hit · 217/394

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	$483	96.5¢	Won
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$1.4k	77.3¢	Won
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	$3.2k	25.9¢	Lost
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?	Yes	$3.4k	33.1¢	Lost
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?	Yes	$128	32.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$927	84.3¢	Won
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	No	$252	84.0¢	Won
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?	Yes	$214	23.8¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?	No	$77	38.7¢	Lost
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$402	64.8¢	Lost
Will no one dissent September Fed decision?	No	$641	69.8¢	Won
Will no one dissent September Fed decision?	Yes	$33	33.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$2.6k	84.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$560	18.7¢	Lost
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	No	$226	75.2¢	Won
MicroStrategy purchases more Bitcoin before inauguration?	No	$39	26.0¢	Won
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	No	$285	57.0¢	Won
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	Yes	$226	25.2¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?	Yes	$53	9.4¢	Lost
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$17	17.0¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	$1.4k	82.8¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?	No	$192	77.0¢	Won
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?	Yes	$99	17.0¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	$3	67.0¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	$229	76.3¢	Won
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?	No	$126	76.0¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?	No	$618	88.3¢	Won
New Pope before July?	Yes	$58	58.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of January?	Yes	$32	16.0¢	Lost
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 21 be between 1,700,000 and 1,800,000?	Yes	$55	55.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31?	Yes	$952	68.0¢	Lost
Israel strike on Iran on June 16?	No	$14	4.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$384	76.8¢	Won
Bitcoin all time high by June 30?	Yes	$386	48.3¢	Won
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May?	Yes	$143	71.6¢	Lost
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$151	33.6¢	Lost
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?	Yes	$144	36.0¢	Won
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$223	89.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump issue 40 or more executive orders in his first week?	No	$42	77.0¢	Won
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30?	Yes	$167	83.3¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	$531	75.9¢	Won
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	No	$1.3k	77.2¢	Won
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	Yes	$348	26.7¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	Yes	$90	15.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump say "Energy" during Crypto Summit on Friday?	No	$62	30.9¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	$17.7k	81.6¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	$1.4k	58.4¢	Lost
TikTok sale announced before April?	Yes	$437	30.2¢	Lost
Will $Trump FDV be $40-45b on Feb 1?	Yes	$24	6.9¢	Lost
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?	Yes	$248	62.0¢	Won

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Won
No$483 @ 96.5¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Won
No$1.4k @ 77.3¢
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$3.2k @ 25.9¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Lost
Yes$3.4k @ 33.1¢
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?Lost
Yes$128 @ 32.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$927 @ 84.3¢
Will France strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$252 @ 84.0¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?Lost
Yes$214 @ 23.8¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?Lost
No$77 @ 38.7¢
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
Yes$402 @ 64.8¢
Will no one dissent September Fed decision?Won
No$641 @ 69.8¢
Will no one dissent September Fed decision?Lost
Yes$33 @ 33.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$2.6k @ 84.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$560 @ 18.7¢
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$226 @ 75.2¢
MicroStrategy purchases more Bitcoin before inauguration?Won
No$39 @ 26.0¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Won
No$285 @ 57.0¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Lost
Yes$226 @ 25.2¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?Lost
Yes$53 @ 9.4¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$17 @ 17.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
No$1.4k @ 82.8¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?Won
No$192 @ 77.0¢
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?Lost
Yes$99 @ 17.0¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?Won
No$3 @ 67.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Won
No$229 @ 76.3¢
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?Won
No$126 @ 76.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?Won
No$618 @ 88.3¢
New Pope before July?Won
Yes$58 @ 58.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of January?Lost
Yes$32 @ 16.0¢
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 21 be between 1,700,000 and 1,800,000?Lost
Yes$55 @ 55.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31?Lost
Yes$952 @ 68.0¢
Israel strike on Iran on June 16?Lost
No$14 @ 4.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$384 @ 76.8¢
Bitcoin all time high by June 30?Won
Yes$386 @ 48.3¢
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May?Lost
Yes$143 @ 71.6¢
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?Lost
No$151 @ 33.6¢
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?Won
Yes$144 @ 36.0¢
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$223 @ 89.0¢
Will Donald Trump issue 40 or more executive orders in his first week?Won
No$42 @ 77.0¢
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30?Won
Yes$167 @ 83.3¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Won
No$531 @ 75.9¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Won
No$1.3k @ 77.2¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$348 @ 26.7¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Lost
Yes$90 @ 15.0¢
Will Donald Trump say "Energy" during Crypto Summit on Friday?Won
No$62 @ 30.9¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$17.7k @ 81.6¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 58.4¢
TikTok sale announced before April?Lost
Yes$437 @ 30.2¢
Will $Trump FDV be $40-45b on Feb 1?Lost
Yes$24 @ 6.9¢
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?Won
Yes$248 @ 62.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$43.8k	84.7¢
US recession by end of 2026?	Economy	No	$7.0k	79.1¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$6.8k	84.6¢
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$1.7k	94.8¢
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Economy	No	$1.4k	84.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.4k	70.8¢
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Economy	No	$1.3k	85.7¢
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$1.2k	91.3¢
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$765	66.4¢
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	Politics	No	$479	95.9¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Politics	No	$477	95.3¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$470	94.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Politics	No	$470	94.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Politics	No	$470	94.0¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$465	93.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	Politics	No	$455	91.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$430	86.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$423	84.5¢
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	Economy	No	$295	80.5¢
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$286	33.6¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$82	16.5¢

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$43.8k @ 84.7¢
US recession by end of 2026?Economy
No$7.0k @ 79.1¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
No$6.8k @ 84.6¢
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$1.7k @ 94.8¢
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Economy
No$1.4k @ 84.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$1.4k @ 70.8¢
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Economy
No$1.3k @ 85.7¢
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$1.2k @ 91.3¢
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$765 @ 66.4¢
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?Politics
No$479 @ 95.9¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
No$477 @ 95.3¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$470 @ 94.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
No$470 @ 94.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Politics
No$470 @ 94.0¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics
No$465 @ 93.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?Politics
No$455 @ 91.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$430 @ 86.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$423 @ 84.5¢
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?Economy
No$295 @ 80.5¢
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?Crypto
Yes$286 @ 33.6¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$82 @ 16.5¢