0x6e88…bd30

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x6e881e6e5035cdbb7c2208013af4db2793b2bd30
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.9pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

40% @ 34.6¢

Brier

0.166

Resolved

5055

Avg size

$13

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (828/1666)	+8%	1666
Sports	41% (32/79)	+45%	79
Politics	19% (5/27)	-66%	27
Tech	20% (1/5)	-36%	5
Culture	50% (2/4)	+67%	4
Geopolitics	33% (1/3)	-15%	3
Crypto	67% (2/3)	-7%	3

Other1666 bets
Hit rate
50% (828/1666)
ROI
+8%
Sports79 bets
Hit rate
41% (32/79)
ROI
+45%
Politics27 bets
Hit rate
19% (5/27)
ROI
-66%
Tech5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
-36%
Culture4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+67%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-15%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-7%

Track record

49% hit · 871/1787

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in September 2026?	Yes	$14	11.6¢	Lost
Australia vs. Brazil: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Over	$47	47.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	$434	50.3¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	Yes	$31	35.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 50 million views on week 1?	Yes	$50	34.3¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Nixon" during his evening remarks with Xi Jinping?	Yes	$0	0.0¢	Lost
Will Alain St Ange win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?	Yes	$43	54.0¢	Won
Warriors vs. Hornets	Warriors	$26	86.0¢	Won
Will Powell say "Good Morning" during Jackson Hole speech on August 22?	Yes	$14	14.0¢	Lost
Will CF Monterrey win the FIFA Club World Cup?	Yes	$7	0.3¢	Lost
Will Trump say "EU" or "European Union" during Meloni visit on April 17?	Yes	$1	47.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Too Late" during events with South Korean president on August 25?	Yes	$9	30.5¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in October?	Yes	$17	75.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during announcement today?	Yes	$5	27.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" or "Midnight Hammer" during Women's History Month event?	Yes	$16	54.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Transgender" at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21?	Yes	$23	38.3¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	$54	68.0¢	Won
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-03-08?	Yes	$6	62.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Boat" or "Terrorist" during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?	Yes	$51	51.0¢	Won
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$3	1.4¢	Lost
Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit?	Yes	$4	7.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Governor" during events with PM of Canada on Oct 7?	Yes	$30	60.0¢	Won
Will Wavel Ramkalawan win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?	Yes	$27	52.8¢	Lost
Will Trump say UN / United Nations during Netanyahu events on September 29?	No	$5	9.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Hottest" during announcement today?	Yes	$1	41.0¢	Won
Bulls vs. Magic	Magic	$6	55.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?	Yes	$186	51.0¢	Won
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17?	No	$21	71.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump say "Nuclear" during Merz events on June 5?	No	$6	29.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Gender" during NRCC Dinner on April 8?	Yes	$6	55.0¢	Won
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?	No	$10	20.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Somalia" during the State of the Union address?	No	$44	88.0¢	Won
Will Iceland win on 2025-10-13?	No	$72	72.0¢	Won
Nets vs. Cavaliers	Nets	$1	16.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say 'Russia' 3+ times during the 2025 State of the Union?	Yes	$6	59.0¢	Won
Will Samira Sagr be in the top 3 of Big Brother Brasil 26?	Yes	$27	30.2¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	Yes	$138	29.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Boots on the ground" this week? (September 1 - 7)	Yes	$8	38.0¢	Lost
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-01-31?	No	$31	77.0¢	Won
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-02-04?	Yes	$21	70.0¢	Lost
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?	No	$30	73.0¢	Lost
Pacers vs. Bucks	Bucks	$20	40.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?	Yes	$16	79.9¢	Won
Will Trump say "Terrible" or "Horrible" 10+ times at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21?	Yes	$6	6.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "NAFTA" during his cabinet meeting on April 10?	Yes	$10	37.4¢	Won
Will Trump say "Tax on Tips" while addressing the nation on December 17?	No	$18	36.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Tax on Tips" while addressing the nation on December 17?	Yes	$68	67.5¢	Won
Will Sporting CP win on 2025-02-19?	No	$6	78.0¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$20	67.0¢	Won

Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in September 2026?Lost
Yes$14 @ 11.6¢
Australia vs. Brazil: O/U 9.5 Total CornersWon
Over$47 @ 47.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?Won
Yes$434 @ 50.3¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$31 @ 35.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 50 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$50 @ 34.3¢
Will Trump say "Nixon" during his evening remarks with Xi Jinping?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Alain St Ange win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Won
Yes$43 @ 54.0¢
Warriors vs. HornetsWon
Warriors$26 @ 86.0¢
Will Powell say "Good Morning" during Jackson Hole speech on August 22?Lost
Yes$14 @ 14.0¢
Will CF Monterrey win the FIFA Club World Cup?Lost
Yes$7 @ 0.3¢
Will Trump say "EU" or "European Union" during Meloni visit on April 17?Lost
Yes$1 @ 47.0¢
Will Trump say "Too Late" during events with South Korean president on August 25?Lost
Yes$9 @ 30.5¢
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in October?Won
Yes$17 @ 75.0¢
Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during announcement today?Lost
Yes$5 @ 27.0¢
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" or "Midnight Hammer" during Women's History Month event?Lost
Yes$16 @ 54.0¢
Will Trump say "Transgender" at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21?Lost
Yes$23 @ 38.3¢
Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times at The Villages on May 1?Won
Yes$54 @ 68.0¢
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-03-08?Won
Yes$6 @ 62.0¢
Will Trump say "Boat" or "Terrorist" during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?Won
Yes$51 @ 51.0¢
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.4¢
Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit?Lost
Yes$4 @ 7.2¢
Will Trump say "Governor" during events with PM of Canada on Oct 7?Won
Yes$30 @ 60.0¢
Will Wavel Ramkalawan win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?Lost
Yes$27 @ 52.8¢
Will Trump say UN / United Nations during Netanyahu events on September 29?Lost
No$5 @ 9.0¢
Will Trump say "Hottest" during announcement today?Won
Yes$1 @ 41.0¢
Bulls vs. MagicLost
Magic$6 @ 55.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?Won
Yes$186 @ 51.0¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17?Won
No$21 @ 71.0¢
Will Donald Trump say "Nuclear" during Merz events on June 5?Lost
No$6 @ 29.0¢
Will Trump say "Gender" during NRCC Dinner on April 8?Won
Yes$6 @ 55.0¢
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?Lost
No$10 @ 20.0¢
Will Trump say "Somalia" during the State of the Union address?Won
No$44 @ 88.0¢
Will Iceland win on 2025-10-13?Won
No$72 @ 72.0¢
Nets vs. CavaliersLost
Nets$1 @ 16.0¢
Will Trump say 'Russia' 3+ times during the 2025 State of the Union?Won
Yes$6 @ 59.0¢
Will Samira Sagr be in the top 3 of Big Brother Brasil 26?Lost
Yes$27 @ 30.2¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$138 @ 29.9¢
Will Trump say "Boots on the ground" this week? (September 1 - 7)Lost
Yes$8 @ 38.0¢
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-01-31?Won
No$31 @ 77.0¢
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-02-04?Lost
Yes$21 @ 70.0¢
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?Lost
No$30 @ 73.0¢
Pacers vs. BucksWon
Bucks$20 @ 40.0¢
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?Won
Yes$16 @ 79.9¢
Will Trump say "Terrible" or "Horrible" 10+ times at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21?Won
Yes$6 @ 6.0¢
Will Trump say "NAFTA" during his cabinet meeting on April 10?Won
Yes$10 @ 37.4¢
Will Trump say "Tax on Tips" while addressing the nation on December 17?Lost
No$18 @ 36.0¢
Will Trump say "Tax on Tips" while addressing the nation on December 17?Won
Yes$68 @ 67.5¢
Will Sporting CP win on 2025-02-19?Won
No$6 @ 78.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$20 @ 67.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	Politics	Yes	$466	57.1¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$277	37.0¢
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$245	59.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?	Politics	Yes	$195	42.9¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	Culture	Yes	$102	16.4¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$87	16.1¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?	Politics	Yes	$86	66.1¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?	Politics	Yes	$62	62.0¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Tocantins?	Politics	Yes	$48	48.0¢
Will Arruda win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial election?	Politics	Yes	$32	16.1¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?	Politics	Yes	$29	16.3¢
Will Alexandre Kalil win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?	Politics	Yes	$27	21.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?	Politics	Yes	$25	15.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?	Culture	Yes	$25	7.1¢
Will Mateus Simões win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?	Politics	Yes	$20	12.8¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?	Politics	Yes	$20	9.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Culture	Yes	$20	7.1¢
Will MrBeast's next video get at least 100 million views on week 1?	Culture	No	$13	10.0¢
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$11	11.0¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?	Politics	Yes	$9	8.7¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Goiás?	Politics	Yes	$8	20.0¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?	Politics	Yes	$4	6.8¢

Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?Politics
Yes$466 @ 57.1¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$277 @ 37.0¢
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$245 @ 59.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?Politics
Yes$195 @ 42.9¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?Culture
Yes$102 @ 16.4¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$87 @ 16.1¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?Politics
Yes$86 @ 66.1¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?Politics
Yes$62 @ 62.0¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Tocantins?Politics
Yes$48 @ 48.0¢
Will Arruda win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial election?Politics
Yes$32 @ 16.1¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?Politics
Yes$29 @ 16.3¢
Will Alexandre Kalil win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?Politics
Yes$27 @ 21.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?Politics
Yes$25 @ 15.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?Culture
Yes$25 @ 7.1¢
Will Mateus Simões win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?Politics
Yes$20 @ 12.8¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?Politics
Yes$20 @ 9.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?Culture
Yes$20 @ 7.1¢
Will MrBeast's next video get at least 100 million views on week 1?Culture
No$13 @ 10.0¢
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$11 @ 11.0¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?Politics
Yes$9 @ 8.7¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Goiás?Politics
Yes$8 @ 20.0¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?Politics
Yes$4 @ 6.8¢