0x6e63…07ae

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x6e6390b0abb13d6253dea73b11d96535b5b807ae
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.5pp

ROI

+14%

Win rate

74% @ 64.6¢

Brier

0.172

Resolved

181

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	70% (37/53)	+18%	53
Politics	93% (27/29)	+29%	29
Sports	59% (10/17)	-2%	17
Tech	20% (1/5)	-66%	5
Geopolitics	80% (4/5)	+5%	5
Economy	50% (1/2)	-3%	2
Crypto	100% (2/2)	+29%	2
Culture	100% (1/1)	+43%	1

Other53 bets
Hit rate
70% (37/53)
ROI
+18%
Politics29 bets
Hit rate
93% (27/29)
ROI
+29%
Sports17 bets
Hit rate
59% (10/17)
ROI
-2%
Tech5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
-66%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
80% (4/5)
ROI
+5%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-3%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+29%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+43%

Track record

73% hit · 83/114

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open?	Yes	$2	42.7¢	Won
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	$10	83.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	Yes	$10	9.5¢	Lost
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	Yes	$10	63.0¢	Won
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	$10	87.0¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	No	$10	83.0¢	Won
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	Yes	$10	70.0¢	Won
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?	Yes	$15	71.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$10	67.0¢	Won
Lincoln: J.J. Wolf vs Andrew Fenty	Andrew Fenty	$20	59.8¢	Lost
Lincoln: J.J. Wolf vs Andrew Fenty	J.J. Wolf	$10	59.0¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	Yes	$15	67.0¢	Won
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$15	70.0¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	$26	10.4¢	Lost
Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?	No	$15	61.0¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$25	72.0¢	Won
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$10	58.0¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$20	82.9¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	$10	67.0¢	Won
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?	No	$15	50.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?	Yes	$30	59.7¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$10	77.0¢	Won
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	$1	12.9¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	No	$15	79.0¢	Won
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	No	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?	Yes	$10	56.0¢	Won
Lincoln: Rio Noguchi vs Charles Broom	Rio Noguchi	$10	65.0¢	Won
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	$10	70.0¢	Won
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	$9	80.0¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$10	60.0¢	Won
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	No	$10	87.0¢	Won
Rome: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Elizara Yaneva	Elizara Yaneva	$10	64.0¢	Won
Will Rodri join Barcelona?	Yes	$15	86.0¢	Won
LoL: Zeu5 Esports vs 3v Team (BO5) - LRN Playoffs	Zeu5 Esports	$10	85.0¢	Won
Will England finish 3rd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$10	69.0¢	Lost
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?	No	$20	64.0¢	Lost
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	$2	36.2¢	Lost
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open?	No	$2	44.0¢	Won
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$10	78.0¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	No	$15	84.0¢	Lost
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$10	84.0¢	Won
Pozoblanco: Tiago Pereira vs Miguel Tobon	Tiago Pereira	$10	70.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	Yes	$10	52.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?	No	$10	77.0¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$10	67.0¢	Won
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	$1	10.2¢	Lost
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	No	$10	68.0¢	Won
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	$15	80.0¢	Won
US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?	No	$10	83.0¢	Won
Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?	No	$10	82.0¢	Won

Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open?Won
Yes$2 @ 42.7¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Won
No$10 @ 83.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?Lost
Yes$10 @ 9.5¢
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Won
Yes$10 @ 63.0¢
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?Won
Yes$10 @ 87.0¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
No$10 @ 83.0¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Won
Yes$10 @ 70.0¢
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Won
Yes$15 @ 71.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$10 @ 67.0¢
Lincoln: J.J. Wolf vs Andrew FentyLost
Andrew Fenty$20 @ 59.8¢
Lincoln: J.J. Wolf vs Andrew FentyWon
J.J. Wolf$10 @ 59.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Won
Yes$15 @ 67.0¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Won
No$15 @ 70.0¢
Will France win on 2026-07-14?Lost
Yes$26 @ 10.4¢
Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?Won
No$15 @ 61.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$25 @ 72.0¢
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$10 @ 58.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
No$20 @ 82.9¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Won
Yes$10 @ 67.0¢
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?Lost
No$15 @ 50.0¢
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?Won
Yes$30 @ 59.7¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$10 @ 77.0¢
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?Won
Yes$1 @ 12.9¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Won
No$15 @ 79.0¢
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Lost
No$1 @ 6.0¢
Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?Won
Yes$10 @ 56.0¢
Lincoln: Rio Noguchi vs Charles BroomWon
Rio Noguchi$10 @ 65.0¢
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?Won
No$10 @ 70.0¢
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Won
No$9 @ 80.0¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$10 @ 60.0¢
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Won
No$10 @ 87.0¢
Rome: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Elizara YanevaWon
Elizara Yaneva$10 @ 64.0¢
Will Rodri join Barcelona?Won
Yes$15 @ 86.0¢
LoL: Zeu5 Esports vs 3v Team (BO5) - LRN PlayoffsWon
Zeu5 Esports$10 @ 85.0¢
Will England finish 3rd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$10 @ 69.0¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$20 @ 64.0¢
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's US Open?Lost
Yes$2 @ 36.2¢
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open?Won
No$2 @ 44.0¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$10 @ 78.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Lost
No$15 @ 84.0¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 84.0¢
Pozoblanco: Tiago Pereira vs Miguel TobonWon
Tiago Pereira$10 @ 70.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Won
Yes$10 @ 52.0¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$10 @ 77.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$10 @ 67.0¢
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 10.2¢
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 68.0¢
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Won
Yes$15 @ 80.0¢
US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 83.0¢
Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?Won
No$10 @ 82.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$25	56.2¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	Yes	$25	34.1¢
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Culture	No	$25	37.3¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$20	44.2¢
Will BYD be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?	Politics	No	$16	77.0¢
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Politics	Yes	$16	80.0¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$16	80.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	Politics	Yes	$16	61.0¢
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31?	Crypto	Yes	$15	80.0¢
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$15	80.0¢
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31	Politics	No	$15	83.0¢
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$15	74.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$15	58.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Politics	No	$15	55.0¢
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$15	77.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	No	$15	77.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	No	$15	67.0¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$15	61.0¢
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$15	61.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$15	62.5¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$15	75.0¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$15	51.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	No	$15	63.0¢
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$15	66.0¢
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?	Politics	No	$15	71.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Politics	No	$15	66.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	No	$15	78.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$15	52.0¢
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$15	76.0¢
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$15	73.0¢

Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$25 @ 56.2¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
Yes$25 @ 34.1¢
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Culture
No$25 @ 37.3¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$20 @ 44.2¢
Will BYD be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Politics
No$16 @ 77.0¢
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Politics
Yes$16 @ 80.0¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$16 @ 80.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?Politics
Yes$16 @ 61.0¢
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31?Crypto
Yes$15 @ 80.0¢
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$15 @ 80.0¢
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31Politics
No$15 @ 83.0¢
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$15 @ 74.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$15 @ 58.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Politics
No$15 @ 55.0¢
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$15 @ 77.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
No$15 @ 77.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
No$15 @ 67.0¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$15 @ 61.0¢
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?Crypto
No$15 @ 61.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$15 @ 62.5¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Geopolitics
No$15 @ 75.0¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Politics
No$15 @ 51.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
No$15 @ 63.0¢
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$15 @ 66.0¢
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?Politics
No$15 @ 71.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HousePolitics
No$15 @ 66.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
No$15 @ 78.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$15 @ 52.0¢
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?Politics
Yes$15 @ 76.0¢
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$15 @ 73.0¢