← Smart money
0x6e13…a801
SharpEdge
+9.5pp
ROI
+28%
Win rate
62% @ 52.2¢
Brier
0.101
Resolved
162
Avg size
$745
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 55% (6/11) | +66% | 11 |
| Crypto | 67% (2/3) | +1% | 3 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (1/1) | +71% | 1 |
- Other11 bets
- Hit rate
- 55% (6/11)
- ROI
- +66%
- Crypto3 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (2/3)
- ROI
- +1%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +71%
Track record
60% hit · 9/15| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? | No | $526 | 58.3¢ | Won |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | No | $10.9k | 74.2¢ | Won |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | $5.4k | 62.4¢ | Won |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | $695 | 8.0¢ | Lost |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | No | $53.3k | 76.3¢ | Won |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Yes | $16.1k | 9.9¢ | Lost |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | No | $6.2k | 88.3¢ | Won |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | $4.0k | 33.0¢ | Lost |
| Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? | Yes | $10.9k | 25.3¢ | Won |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | $1.5k | 17.4¢ | Lost |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $920 | 65.5¢ | Won |
| US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30? | Yes | $290 | 16.0¢ | Lost |
| Jynxzi vs Speed: who wins in Fortnite? | Speed | $38 | 56.0¢ | Won |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | Yes | $2.2k | 33.0¢ | Lost |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | $7.6k | 86.5¢ | Won |
- No$526 @ 58.3¢
- No$10.9k @ 74.2¢
- No$5.4k @ 62.4¢
- Yes$695 @ 8.0¢
- No$53.3k @ 76.3¢
- Yes$16.1k @ 9.9¢
- No$6.2k @ 88.3¢
- No$4.0k @ 33.0¢
- Yes$10.9k @ 25.3¢
- Yes$1.5k @ 17.4¢
- Yes$920 @ 65.5¢
- Yes$290 @ 16.0¢
- Speed$38 @ 56.0¢
- Yes$2.2k @ 33.0¢
- Yes$7.6k @ 86.5¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch? | — | Yes | $18.1k | 48.3¢ |
| LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch? | — | No | $11.9k | 44.9¢ |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Politics | No | $9.2k | 82.7¢ |
| Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? | — | No | $5.6k | 64.0¢ |
| LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch? | — | Yes | $5.4k | 30.5¢ |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | — | Yes | $4.5k | 42.7¢ |
| LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch? | — | Yes | $3.2k | 85.0¢ |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Politics | No | $2.0k | 60.7¢ |
| Lula participates in debate before first round? | — | Yes | $1.2k | 40.4¢ |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Politics | Yes | $216 | 2.0¢ |
| Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? | — | No | $39 | 20.0¢ |
- Yes$18.1k @ 48.3¢
- No$11.9k @ 44.9¢
- No$9.2k @ 82.7¢
- No$5.6k @ 64.0¢
- Yes$5.4k @ 30.5¢
- Yes$4.5k @ 42.7¢
- Yes$3.2k @ 85.0¢
- No$2.0k @ 60.7¢
- Yes$1.2k @ 40.4¢
- Yes$216 @ 2.0¢
- No$39 @ 20.0¢