0x6cf8…042f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x6cf833cd47e3cc3c6a5dd993b8ec362ec09f042f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.3pp

ROI

+21%

Win rate

49% @ 36.9¢

Brier

0.214

Resolved

1639

Avg size

$22

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	48% (63/132)	+10%	132
Sports	47% (39/83)	-8%	83
Politics	45% (19/42)	+89%	42

Other132 bets
Hit rate
48% (63/132)
ROI
+10%
Sports83 bets
Hit rate
47% (39/83)
ROI
-8%
Politics42 bets
Hit rate
45% (19/42)
ROI
+89%

Track record

47% hit · 121/257

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during January press conference?	Yes	$25	25.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$7	11.0¢	Lost
Will Harris win Minnesota by 3+ points?	No	$120	24.0¢	Lost
Will the Republican candidate win Arizona by 4.0% or more?	Yes	$31	45.7¢	Won
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	$66	33.0¢	Won
Spread: Florida International (-10.5)	Florida International	$47	47.0¢	Lost
Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?	Yes	$97	24.2¢	Won
Spread: Liberty (-14.5)	Liberty	$46	46.0¢	Won
Spread: Celtics (-14.5)	Bulls	$50	50.0¢	Lost
GOP wins popular vote by 2-3%?	Yes	$230	4.6¢	Lost
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?	No	$55	68.5¢	Won
Spread: Bengals (-6.5)	Dolphins	$96	48.0¢	Lost
Seven Trump Cabinet confirmations in January?	Yes	$90	7.5¢	Lost
Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI?	Yes	$87	87.0¢	Won
Spread: Western Michigan (-13.5)	Western Michigan	$5	50.0¢	Lost
Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?	Yes	$22	8.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?	Yes	$52	16.9¢	Won
Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	$29	17.9¢	Lost
Spread: Grizzlies (-8.5)	Grizzlies	$50	50.0¢	Won
House control after 2024 election?	Democratic	$795	26.7¢	Lost
House control after 2024 election?	Republican	$287	52.2¢	Won
Spread: Tulane (-10.5)	Tulane	$48	48.0¢	Lost
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days?	Yes	$314	12.6¢	Lost
Spread: Army (-2.5)	Army	$1	50.0¢	Won
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 55% by March 31?	Yes	$11	26.5¢	Won
Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%?	Yes	$24	16.0¢	Won
Spread: Spurs (-12.5)	Timberwolves	$51	51.0¢	Won
Spread: Boise State (-13.5)	Washington State	$50	50.0¢	Lost
Eight Trump Cabinet confirmations in January?	Yes	$138	19.7¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	$130	28.4¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	$243	63.9¢	Won
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?	Yes	$385	22.7¢	Lost
Middle Tennessee vs. Florida International: O/U 45.5	Over	$52	52.0¢	Won
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 10 or more times during the March meeting?	Yes	$9	12.0¢	Won
Jaguars vs. Ravens: O/U 40.5	Over	$47	47.0¢	Won
Spread: Pelicans (-5.5)	Pelicans	$48	48.0¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?	Yes	$46	11.5¢	Lost
Ohio State vs. Indiana: O/U 50.5	Over	$102	51.0¢	Lost
Spread: South Florida (-7.5)	South Florida	$50	50.0¢	Won
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%?	Yes	$57	11.3¢	Lost
Spread: Duke (-3.5)	Duke	$92	46.0¢	Lost
Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$416	83.2¢	Won
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 60% by March 31?	Yes	$28	75.0¢	Won
Spread: Lions (-5.5)	Cardinals	$102	50.0¢	Lost
Spread: Texas State (-14.5)	Texas State	$80	47.0¢	Won
Spread: Texans (-9.5)	Giants	$46	46.0¢	Won
Spread: Heat (-7.5)	Mavericks	$49	49.0¢	Won
Spread: James Madison (-10.5)	James Madison	$49	49.0¢	Lost
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	$2.2k	49.3¢	Won
Spread: Notre Dame (-30.5)	Navy	$48	48.0¢	Won

Will Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during January press conference?Won
Yes$25 @ 25.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 11.0¢
Will Harris win Minnesota by 3+ points?Lost
No$120 @ 24.0¢
Will the Republican candidate win Arizona by 4.0% or more? Won
Yes$31 @ 45.7¢
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Won
Yes$66 @ 33.0¢
Spread: Florida International (-10.5)Lost
Florida International$47 @ 47.0¢
Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?Won
Yes$97 @ 24.2¢
Spread: Liberty (-14.5)Won
Liberty$46 @ 46.0¢
Spread: Celtics (-14.5)Lost
Bulls$50 @ 50.0¢
GOP wins popular vote by 2-3%?Lost
Yes$230 @ 4.6¢
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?Won
No$55 @ 68.5¢
Spread: Bengals (-6.5)Lost
Dolphins$96 @ 48.0¢
Seven Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Lost
Yes$90 @ 7.5¢
Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI?Won
Yes$87 @ 87.0¢
Spread: Western Michigan (-13.5)Lost
Western Michigan$5 @ 50.0¢
Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?Lost
Yes$22 @ 8.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?Won
Yes$52 @ 16.9¢
Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Lost
Yes$29 @ 17.9¢
Spread: Grizzlies (-8.5)Won
Grizzlies$50 @ 50.0¢
House control after 2024 election?Lost
Democratic$795 @ 26.7¢
House control after 2024 election?Won
Republican$287 @ 52.2¢
Spread: Tulane (-10.5)Lost
Tulane$48 @ 48.0¢
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days?Lost
Yes$314 @ 12.6¢
Spread: Army (-2.5)Won
Army$1 @ 50.0¢
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 55% by March 31?Won
Yes$11 @ 26.5¢
Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%?Won
Yes$24 @ 16.0¢
Spread: Spurs (-12.5)Won
Timberwolves$51 @ 51.0¢
Spread: Boise State (-13.5)Lost
Washington State$50 @ 50.0¢
Eight Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Won
Yes$138 @ 19.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Lost
Yes$130 @ 28.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?Won
No$243 @ 63.9¢
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people?Lost
Yes$385 @ 22.7¢
Middle Tennessee vs. Florida International: O/U 45.5Won
Over$52 @ 52.0¢
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 10 or more times during the March meeting?Won
Yes$9 @ 12.0¢
Jaguars vs. Ravens: O/U 40.5Won
Over$47 @ 47.0¢
Spread: Pelicans (-5.5)Won
Pelicans$48 @ 48.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?Lost
Yes$46 @ 11.5¢
Ohio State vs. Indiana: O/U 50.5Lost
Over$102 @ 51.0¢
Spread: South Florida (-7.5)Won
South Florida$50 @ 50.0¢
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%?Lost
Yes$57 @ 11.3¢
Spread: Duke (-3.5)Lost
Duke$92 @ 46.0¢
Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$416 @ 83.2¢
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 60% by March 31?Won
Yes$28 @ 75.0¢
Spread: Lions (-5.5)Lost
Cardinals$102 @ 50.0¢
Spread: Texas State (-14.5)Won
Texas State$80 @ 47.0¢
Spread: Texans (-9.5)Won
Giants$46 @ 46.0¢
Spread: Heat (-7.5)Won
Mavericks$49 @ 49.0¢
Spread: James Madison (-10.5)Lost
James Madison$49 @ 49.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
Yes$2.2k @ 49.3¢
Spread: Notre Dame (-30.5)Won
Navy$48 @ 48.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	91.9¢
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?	Politics	No	$740	74.0¢
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$365	73.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$279	62.1¢
Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027?	Crypto	Yes	$256	66.5¢
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$184	92.0¢
Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	Politics	No	$103	25.7¢
Will the National Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$76	39.1¢
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$65	3.9¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$65	9.2¢
Spread: Seahawks (-10.5)	Sports	Cardinals	$62	46.0¢
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?	Politics	No	$56	56.0¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$54	12.3¢
Sam Houston vs. Jacksonville State: O/U 47.5	Sports	Over	$51	51.0¢
Bengals vs. Falcons: O/U 52.5	Sports	Under	$50	50.0¢
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?	Politics	Yes	$49	61.5¢
Rutgers vs. Wisconsin: O/U 45.5	Sports	Over	$49	49.0¢
Spread: Tulsa (-1.5)	Sports	Tulane	$49	49.0¢
Spread: Oklahoma State (-5.5)	Sports	Kansas State	$49	49.0¢
Charlotte vs. UAB: O/U 47.5	Sports	Over	$49	49.0¢
Spread: Navy (-7.5)	Sports	Navy	$48	48.0¢
BYU vs. Utah: O/U 49.5	Sports	Over	$47	47.0¢
Spread: North Carolina (-6.5)	Sports	UConn	$47	47.0¢
Spread: Kansas (-3.5)	Sports	Kansas	$46	46.0¢
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$40	40.0¢
RFK Jr. Out by December 31?	Politics	No	$38	75.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election by 9%-12%?	Politics	Yes	$37	25.0¢
NZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote)	Politics	National	$32	32.0¢
US recession by end of 2027?	Economy	Yes	$32	32.0¢
Vanderbilt vs. Mississippi State: O/U 49.5	Sports	Over	$30	46.0¢

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 91.9¢
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?Politics
No$740 @ 74.0¢
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Politics
Yes$365 @ 73.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
No$279 @ 62.1¢
Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027?Crypto
Yes$256 @ 66.5¢
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$184 @ 92.0¢
Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?Politics
No$103 @ 25.7¢
Will the National Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Politics
Yes$76 @ 39.1¢
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$65 @ 3.9¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$65 @ 9.2¢
Spread: Seahawks (-10.5)Sports
Cardinals$62 @ 46.0¢
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?Politics
No$56 @ 56.0¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$54 @ 12.3¢
Sam Houston vs. Jacksonville State: O/U 47.5Sports
Over$51 @ 51.0¢
Bengals vs. Falcons: O/U 52.5Sports
Under$50 @ 50.0¢
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?Politics
Yes$49 @ 61.5¢
Rutgers vs. Wisconsin: O/U 45.5Sports
Over$49 @ 49.0¢
Spread: Tulsa (-1.5)Sports
Tulane$49 @ 49.0¢
Spread: Oklahoma State (-5.5)Sports
Kansas State$49 @ 49.0¢
Charlotte vs. UAB: O/U 47.5Sports
Over$49 @ 49.0¢
Spread: Navy (-7.5)Sports
Navy$48 @ 48.0¢
BYU vs. Utah: O/U 49.5Sports
Over$47 @ 47.0¢
Spread: North Carolina (-6.5)Sports
UConn$47 @ 47.0¢
Spread: Kansas (-3.5)Sports
Kansas$46 @ 46.0¢
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Politics
Yes$40 @ 40.0¢
RFK Jr. Out by December 31?Politics
No$38 @ 75.0¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election by 9%-12%?Politics
Yes$37 @ 25.0¢
NZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote)Politics
National$32 @ 32.0¢
US recession by end of 2027?Economy
Yes$32 @ 32.0¢
Vanderbilt vs. Mississippi State: O/U 49.5Sports
Over$30 @ 46.0¢