0x6c17…6a7e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x6c17546c05c378555c52d804aebd00d3f4ec6a7e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.4pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

43% @ 40.7¢

Brier

0.086

Resolved

1659

Avg size

$64

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	60% (117/194)	+0%	194
Politics	75% (27/36)	+16%	36
Geopolitics	82% (14/17)	+26%	17
Sports	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Other194 bets
Hit rate
60% (117/194)
ROI
+0%
Politics36 bets
Hit rate
75% (27/36)
ROI
+16%
Geopolitics17 bets
Hit rate
82% (14/17)
ROI
+26%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

63% hit · 158/249

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	No	$500	88.0¢	Won
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?	No	$627	85.3¢	Won
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	Yes	$951	84.5¢	Won
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out in 2025?	Yes	$10	3.1¢	Lost
Russian strike on Poland by September 30?	Yes	$60	6.8¢	Lost
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria in 2025?	No	$32	83.0¢	Won
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$73	8.0¢	Lost
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	No	$114	89.9¢	Won
Will the US next strike Iran on February 6, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$16	3.3¢	Lost
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?	Yes	$360	40.3¢	Won
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$243	24.3¢	Lost
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?	No	$400	80.0¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$1.6k	87.3¢	Won
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	$2.0k	83.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$1.0k	25.7¢	Lost
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	No	$200	83.5¢	Won
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?	No	$150	56.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025?	No	$81	22.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	No	$250	78.5¢	Lost
Japan prime minister Ishiba out by September 30?	No	$230	69.0¢	Lost
Japan prime minister Ishiba out by September 30?	Yes	$50	33.8¢	Won
Will Gold close between $3900 and $4000 at the end of 2025?	Yes	$30	3.5¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$10	1.5¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?	No	$910	79.5¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?	No	$1.6k	89.5¢	Won
Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027?	No	$51	86.0¢	Won
Will Faroe Islands win on 2025-10-12?	No	$221	89.1¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?	No	$750	86.4¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	No	$800	85.6¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$240	8.0¢	Lost
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	$119	71.6¢	Won
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	No	$450	77.2¢	Won
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	$391	87.5¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?	No	$328	79.6¢	Won
Will Nicolás Maduro be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$56	15.1¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	$350	73.0¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?	Yes	$287	82.5¢	Won
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	$50	13.0¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$2.1k	87.8¢	Won
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	No	$400	87.5¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	Yes	$720	77.0¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	$701	36.1¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2025?	No	$126	81.6¢	Won
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	$200	86.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$500	64.8¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$69	7.0¢	Lost
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?	No	$501	86.0¢	Won
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$10	1.3¢	Lost
Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	No	$18	88.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?	No	$250	83.7¢	Won

Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Won
No$500 @ 88.0¢
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?Won
No$627 @ 85.3¢
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?Won
Yes$951 @ 84.5¢
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out in 2025?Lost
Yes$10 @ 3.1¢
Russian strike on Poland by September 30?Lost
Yes$60 @ 6.8¢
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria in 2025?Won
No$32 @ 83.0¢
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$73 @ 8.0¢
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?Won
No$114 @ 89.9¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 6, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$16 @ 3.3¢
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?Won
Yes$360 @ 40.3¢
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$243 @ 24.3¢
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?Won
No$400 @ 80.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$1.6k @ 87.3¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
No$2.0k @ 83.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 25.7¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$200 @ 83.5¢
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?Won
No$150 @ 56.0¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025?Lost
No$81 @ 22.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Lost
No$250 @ 78.5¢
Japan prime minister Ishiba out by September 30?Lost
No$230 @ 69.0¢
Japan prime minister Ishiba out by September 30?Won
Yes$50 @ 33.8¢
Will Gold close between $3900 and $4000 at the end of 2025?Lost
Yes$30 @ 3.5¢
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$10 @ 1.5¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?Won
No$910 @ 79.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?Won
No$1.6k @ 89.5¢
Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027?Won
No$51 @ 86.0¢
Will Faroe Islands win on 2025-10-12?Lost
No$221 @ 89.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?Won
No$750 @ 86.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?Won
No$800 @ 85.6¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$240 @ 8.0¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Won
No$119 @ 71.6¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Won
No$450 @ 77.2¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Won
No$391 @ 87.5¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?Won
No$328 @ 79.6¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the next leader out before 2027?Won
Yes$56 @ 15.1¢
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$350 @ 73.0¢
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?Won
Yes$287 @ 82.5¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$50 @ 13.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$2.1k @ 87.8¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?Won
No$400 @ 87.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Won
Yes$720 @ 77.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Won
Yes$701 @ 36.1¢
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2025?Won
No$126 @ 81.6¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
No$200 @ 86.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$500 @ 64.8¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$69 @ 7.0¢
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?Won
No$501 @ 86.0¢
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$10 @ 1.3¢
Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?Lost
No$18 @ 88.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?Won
No$250 @ 83.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	No	$3.2k	73.9¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Politics	No	$2.1k	78.0¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Politics	No	$2.1k	76.8¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$2.0k	88.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	Other	No	$1.9k	88.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1.9k	76.3¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$1.4k	86.9¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Politics	No	$1.2k	79.8¢
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in September?	Politics	No	$1.2k	89.0¢
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	No	$841	72.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?	Other	No	$801	81.3¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$750	85.0¢
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$360	36.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$139	34.0¢
Israeli airspace closed by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$110	4.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in September?	Other	No	$100	89.0¢
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?	Politics	No	$49	17.3¢

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
No$3.2k @ 73.9¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
No$2.1k @ 78.0¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
No$2.1k @ 76.8¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$2.0k @ 88.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?Other
No$1.9k @ 88.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$1.9k @ 76.3¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$1.4k @ 86.9¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Politics
No$1.2k @ 79.8¢
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in September?Politics
No$1.2k @ 89.0¢
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
No$841 @ 72.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?Other
No$801 @ 81.3¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$750 @ 85.0¢
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?Politics
Yes$360 @ 36.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?Politics
Yes$139 @ 34.0¢
Israeli airspace closed by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$110 @ 4.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in September?Other
No$100 @ 89.0¢
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?Politics
No$49 @ 17.3¢