0x686d…1a68

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x686d5bfc5aee6aaed7bf6a11baef5b57e57d1a68
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.5pp

ROI

+29%

Win rate

32% @ 27.7¢

Brier

0.168

Resolved

1544

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	38% (186/493)	+32%	493
Politics	26% (37/144)	+36%	144
Sports	32% (18/56)	-26%	56
Culture	67% (2/3)	+95%	3
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other493 bets
Hit rate
38% (186/493)
ROI
+32%
Politics144 bets
Hit rate
26% (37/144)
ROI
+36%
Sports56 bets
Hit rate
32% (18/56)
ROI
-26%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+95%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

35% hit · 243/697

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Taylor Brown come in second-place on Big Brother season 28?	Yes	$5	19.4¢	Won
Will Rick Devens win Big Brother season 28?	Yes	$94	36.7¢	Won
Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother season 28?	Yes	$46	16.6¢	Lost
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$33	26.8¢	Lost
Will Porto reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals?	Yes	$2	79.0¢	Won
Will Diogo Costa win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Sporting CP win on 2025-11-08?	Yes	$8	58.7¢	Won
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-30?	No	$1	28.0¢	Lost
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?	Yes	$4	2.7¢	Lost
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?	Yes	$5	28.7¢	Won
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-25?	No	$1	51.0¢	Lost
Will Chuk Anyanwu be evicted in Big Brother season 28 (Week 5)?	Yes	$3	5.0¢	Lost
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10?	Yes	$2	54.9¢	Lost
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$2	10.2¢	Lost
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?	Yes	$4	49.0¢	Won
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-02?	Yes	$1	81.0¢	Won
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Yes	$1	25.0¢	Lost
Will André Ventura win the first round by 2–4%?	Yes	$3	13.6¢	Lost
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-12-04?	Yes	$1	56.0¢	Won
Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?	Yes	$30	61.6¢	Won
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20?	Yes	$2	47.0¢	Lost
Will Antonio Delgado win the 2026 New York Democratic Gubernatorial Primary?	Yes	$6	21.3¢	Lost
Will Jack Reed be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Rhode Island?	No	$6	3.7¢	Lost
Will Shawn Harris win the GA-14 special election?	Yes	$2	11.0¢	Lost
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$1	18.0¢	Lost
Arsenal FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$1	61.0¢	Won
Will Jon Hansen win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$1	7.8¢	Lost
Will Ivory Coast be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup?	Yes	$4	11.7¢	Lost
Spurs vs. Knicks	Spurs	$2	47.0¢	Won
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-11-27?	Yes	$1	80.0¢	Lost
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?	Yes	$15	28.5¢	Won
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11?	Yes	$2	50.9¢	Won
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$6	20.4¢	Lost
Will António José Seguro win the first round?	Yes	$2	51.0¢	Won
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$5	12.4¢	Won
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$16	8.0¢	Lost
Will Crystal Hudson be the next Speaker of the New York City Council?	Yes	$5	21.6¢	Lost
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-13?	Yes	$1	72.0¢	Won
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League?	Yes	$4	7.5¢	Lost
Will Monica Sánchez advance from the CA-38 primary election?	Yes	$5	29.0¢	Lost
Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?	Yes	$22	32.3¢	Won
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%?	Yes	$1	17.7¢	Won
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-09?	No	$1	50.0¢	Lost
Will André Ventura win more than 26% of votes in the first round?	Yes	$1	18.0¢	Lost
Will Behn win TN-07?	Yes	$1	12.0¢	Lost
Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$5	14.0¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$31	21.5¢	Lost
Will Social Democrats win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?	No	$6	1.4¢	Lost
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-12-07?	Yes	$1	76.0¢	Won
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23?	Yes	$1	69.0¢	Won

Will Taylor Brown come in second-place on Big Brother season 28?Won
Yes$5 @ 19.4¢
Will Rick Devens win Big Brother season 28?Won
Yes$94 @ 36.7¢
Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother season 28?Lost
Yes$46 @ 16.6¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$33 @ 26.8¢
Will Porto reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals?Won
Yes$2 @ 79.0¢
Will Diogo Costa win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Sporting CP win on 2025-11-08?Won
Yes$8 @ 58.7¢
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-30?Lost
No$1 @ 28.0¢
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.7¢
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?Won
Yes$5 @ 28.7¢
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-25?Lost
No$1 @ 51.0¢
Will Chuk Anyanwu be evicted in Big Brother season 28 (Week 5)?Lost
Yes$3 @ 5.0¢
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10?Lost
Yes$2 @ 54.9¢
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$2 @ 10.2¢
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?Won
Yes$4 @ 49.0¢
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-02?Won
Yes$1 @ 81.0¢
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?Lost
Yes$1 @ 25.0¢
Will André Ventura win the first round by 2–4%?Lost
Yes$3 @ 13.6¢
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-12-04?Won
Yes$1 @ 56.0¢
Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?Won
Yes$30 @ 61.6¢
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20?Lost
Yes$2 @ 47.0¢
Will Antonio Delgado win the 2026 New York Democratic Gubernatorial Primary?Lost
Yes$6 @ 21.3¢
Will Jack Reed be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Rhode Island?Lost
No$6 @ 3.7¢
Will Shawn Harris win the GA-14 special election?Lost
Yes$2 @ 11.0¢
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$1 @ 18.0¢
Arsenal FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreWon
Yes$1 @ 61.0¢
Will Jon Hansen win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.8¢
Will Ivory Coast be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup?Lost
Yes$4 @ 11.7¢
Spurs vs. KnicksWon
Spurs$2 @ 47.0¢
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-11-27?Lost
Yes$1 @ 80.0¢
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?Won
Yes$15 @ 28.5¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11?Won
Yes$2 @ 50.9¢
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$6 @ 20.4¢
Will António José Seguro win the first round?Won
Yes$2 @ 51.0¢
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?Won
Yes$5 @ 12.4¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$16 @ 8.0¢
Will Crystal Hudson be the next Speaker of the New York City Council?Lost
Yes$5 @ 21.6¢
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-13?Won
Yes$1 @ 72.0¢
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League?Lost
Yes$4 @ 7.5¢
Will Monica Sánchez advance from the CA-38 primary election?Lost
Yes$5 @ 29.0¢
Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?Won
Yes$22 @ 32.3¢
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%?Won
Yes$1 @ 17.7¢
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-09?Lost
No$1 @ 50.0¢
Will André Ventura win more than 26% of votes in the first round?Lost
Yes$1 @ 18.0¢
Will Behn win TN-07?Lost
Yes$1 @ 12.0¢
Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$5 @ 14.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$31 @ 21.5¢
Will Social Democrats win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?Lost
No$6 @ 1.4¢
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-12-07?Won
Yes$1 @ 76.0¢
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23?Won
Yes$1 @ 69.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$40	6.0¢
Will Mai Vang win the CA-07 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$40	46.2¢
Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?	Politics	No	$32	19.4¢
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$30	11.8¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$25	5.1¢
Will Progresīvie (PRO) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$25	2.2¢
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Politics	Yes	$25	38.7¢
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$25	39.0¢
Will Republicans win the Ohio Governor election and Democrats win the Ohio Senate election?	Politics	Yes	$22	15.5¢
Will Zack Polanski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?	Politics	Yes	$22	19.0¢
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP?	Politics	Yes	$21	23.6¢
Will Connie Chan win the CA-11 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$20	23.0¢
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$20	13.3¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$18	21.8¢
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?	Politics	Yes	$18	25.0¢
Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?	Politics	Yes	$18	32.0¢
Will PRO come 2nd place in the next Latvian parliamentary elections?	Politics	Yes	$18	16.4¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$18	14.0¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$18	2.4¢
Will Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?	Politics	Yes	$16	30.1¢
Will Augusto Cury win 6% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$16	16.2¢
Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil?	Politics	Yes	$16	29.8¢
Will the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) win seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary elections?	Politics	Yes	$15	23.5¢
Will the Michigan Democrat perform best among these tossup Senate races?	Politics	Yes	$15	37.0¢
California wealth tax defeats opposing propositions?	Politics	Yes	$13	18.8¢
Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$12	14.6¢
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + V?	Politics	Yes	$12	14.9¢
Another Clacton by-election called in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$11	14.8¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$11	16.8¢
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$11	14.8¢

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$40 @ 6.0¢
Will Mai Vang win the CA-07 House seat?Politics
Yes$40 @ 46.2¢
Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?Politics
No$32 @ 19.4¢
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$30 @ 11.8¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$25 @ 5.1¢
Will Progresīvie (PRO) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$25 @ 2.2¢
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Politics
Yes$25 @ 38.7¢
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?Politics
Yes$25 @ 39.0¢
Will Republicans win the Ohio Governor election and Democrats win the Ohio Senate election?Politics
Yes$22 @ 15.5¢
Will Zack Polanski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?Politics
Yes$22 @ 19.0¢
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP?Politics
Yes$21 @ 23.6¢
Will Connie Chan win the CA-11 House seat?Politics
Yes$20 @ 23.0¢
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
Yes$20 @ 13.3¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$18 @ 21.8¢
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?Politics
Yes$18 @ 25.0¢
Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?Politics
Yes$18 @ 32.0¢
Will PRO come 2nd place in the next Latvian parliamentary elections?Politics
Yes$18 @ 16.4¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$18 @ 14.0¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$18 @ 2.4¢
Will Raphael Glucksmann win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?Politics
Yes$16 @ 30.1¢
Will Augusto Cury win 6% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$16 @ 16.2¢
Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil?Politics
Yes$16 @ 29.8¢
Will the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) win seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary elections?Politics
Yes$15 @ 23.5¢
Will the Michigan Democrat perform best among these tossup Senate races?Politics
Yes$15 @ 37.0¢
California wealth tax defeats opposing propositions?Politics
Yes$13 @ 18.8¢
Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?Politics
Yes$12 @ 14.6¢
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + V?Politics
Yes$12 @ 14.9¢
Another Clacton by-election called in 2026?Politics
Yes$11 @ 14.8¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?Politics
Yes$11 @ 16.8¢
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
Yes$11 @ 14.8¢