0x66c1…2c72

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x66c1cc4f994ee99a2f5977a2e071cbfd65852c72
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.0pp

ROI

+16%

Win rate

19% @ 15.6¢

Brier

0.103

Resolved

2891

Avg size

$24

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	28% (48/170)	+52%	170
Politics	24% (39/164)	+30%	164
Geopolitics	12% (6/51)	-87%	51
Tech	16% (4/25)	+20%	25
Sports	39% (7/18)	+63%	18
Science	17% (1/6)	+140%	6
Culture	50% (3/6)	+34%	6
Economy	0% (0/5)	-100%	5
Crypto	50% (2/4)	+109%	4

Other170 bets
Hit rate
28% (48/170)
ROI
+52%
Politics164 bets
Hit rate
24% (39/164)
ROI
+30%
Geopolitics51 bets
Hit rate
12% (6/51)
ROI
-87%
Tech25 bets
Hit rate
16% (4/25)
ROI
+20%
Sports18 bets
Hit rate
39% (7/18)
ROI
+63%
Science6 bets
Hit rate
17% (1/6)
ROI
+140%
Culture6 bets
Hit rate
50% (3/6)
ROI
+34%
Economy5 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/5)
ROI
-100%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+109%

Track record

24% hit · 110/449

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Ren Zhengfei public appearance by September 30?	Yes	$122	30.5¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$51	5.1¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$37	7.3¢	Lost
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$286	46.4¢	Lost
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May?	Yes	$2	0.5¢	Lost
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?	Yes	$205	25.0¢	Lost
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$90	25.3¢	Lost
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$60	6.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$334	21.9¢	Won
Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	$2	0.4¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$368	5.0¢	Lost
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?	Yes	$430	12.8¢	Lost
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$26	5.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	$74	3.7¢	Lost
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?	Yes	$2	0.2¢	Lost
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	No	$28	5.4¢	Lost
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	Yes	$7	2.5¢	Lost
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$62	12.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$109	10.6¢	Lost
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$527	64.3¢	Won
Iran leadership change by July 31?	Yes	$12	1.2¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?	Yes	$3	0.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	17.6¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$432	16.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce Harmeet Dhillon as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	Yes	$4	0.3¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$20	3.9¢	Lost
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?	Yes	$2	1.8¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19?	Yes	$107	1.8¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	Yes	$775	7.7¢	Lost
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 31?	No	$41	7.2¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30?	No	$25	2.7¢	Lost
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	$10	2.5¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$8	2.8¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$220	11.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	Yes	$35	7.0¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?	Yes	$304	10.0¢	Lost
Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?	Yes	$50	4.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce Jeanine Pirro as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	Yes	$38	1.8¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$124	60.9¢	Won
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$6	1.0¢	Lost
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	$3	31.0¢	Won
Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31?	Yes	$61	5.0¢	Lost
Will there be fewer than 2 North Korea tests in May 2026?	Yes	$58	58.9¢	Won
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$280	28.0¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$42	4.2¢	Lost
Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?	Yes	$200	50.0¢	Won
Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?	Yes	$74	4.1¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$441	15.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$315	10.5¢	Lost

Ren Zhengfei public appearance by September 30?Won
Yes$122 @ 30.5¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
No$51 @ 5.1¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$37 @ 7.3¢
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$286 @ 46.4¢
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.5¢
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?Lost
Yes$205 @ 25.0¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$90 @ 25.3¢
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$60 @ 6.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$334 @ 21.9¢
Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on August 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.4¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$368 @ 5.0¢
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?Lost
Yes$430 @ 12.8¢
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$26 @ 5.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Lost
Yes$74 @ 3.7¢
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?Lost
No$28 @ 5.4¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Lost
Yes$7 @ 2.5¢
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$62 @ 12.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$109 @ 10.6¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$527 @ 64.3¢
Iran leadership change by July 31?Lost
Yes$12 @ 1.2¢
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 17.6¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$432 @ 16.9¢
Will Donald Trump announce Harmeet Dhillon as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.3¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$20 @ 3.9¢
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.8¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19?Lost
Yes$107 @ 1.8¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Lost
Yes$775 @ 7.7¢
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 31?Lost
No$41 @ 7.2¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30?Lost
No$25 @ 2.7¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Lost
No$10 @ 2.5¢
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 2.8¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$220 @ 11.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Lost
Yes$35 @ 7.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?Lost
Yes$304 @ 10.0¢
Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?Lost
Yes$50 @ 4.9¢
Will Donald Trump announce Jeanine Pirro as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?Lost
Yes$38 @ 1.8¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$124 @ 60.9¢
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.0¢
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?Won
Yes$3 @ 31.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31?Lost
Yes$61 @ 5.0¢
Will there be fewer than 2 North Korea tests in May 2026?Won
Yes$58 @ 58.9¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$280 @ 28.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$42 @ 4.2¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?Won
Yes$200 @ 50.0¢
Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?Lost
Yes$74 @ 4.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$441 @ 15.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$315 @ 10.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$755	75.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$540	54.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$419	21.0¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$386	7.7¢
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$336	56.0¢
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$320	10.7¢
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$297	1.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$286	3.6¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Politics	No	$266	13.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in September?	Other	Yes	$188	4.4¢
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$175	17.5¢
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$170	8.5¢
Will USD be less than 2.0M Iranian rials on December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$155	15.5¢
Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$140	9.3¢
Will AI-chip export licensing become law this year?	Politics	Yes	$140	28.0¢
Will USD be at least 2.2M Iranian rials on September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$137	16.6¢
Ren Zhengfei public appearance by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$122	30.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$120	6.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$118	59.0¢
Will Trump meet with Mark Carney by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$112	22.4¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$108	22.7¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?	Politics	Yes	$107	3.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?	—	Yes	$105	3.5¢
Will Data center utility cost protection become law this year?	Politics	Yes	$89	22.4¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$80	16.0¢
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$80	4.7¢
ChatGPT Outage by September 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$80	97.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$76	3.8¢
Will Export-control chip security become law this year?	Politics	Yes	$73	36.6¢
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$70	13.7¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$755 @ 75.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$540 @ 54.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$419 @ 21.0¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$386 @ 7.7¢
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?Geopolitics
No$336 @ 56.0¢
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30?Politics
Yes$320 @ 10.7¢
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$297 @ 1.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
Yes$286 @ 3.6¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Politics
No$266 @ 13.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in September?Other
Yes$188 @ 4.4¢
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?Politics
Yes$175 @ 17.5¢
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before 2027?Politics
Yes$170 @ 8.5¢
Will USD be less than 2.0M Iranian rials on December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$155 @ 15.5¢
Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$140 @ 9.3¢
Will AI-chip export licensing become law this year?Politics
Yes$140 @ 28.0¢
Will USD be at least 2.2M Iranian rials on September 30?Geopolitics
No$137 @ 16.6¢
Ren Zhengfei public appearance by September 30?Politics
Yes$122 @ 30.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
Yes$120 @ 6.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Politics
Yes$118 @ 59.0¢
Will Trump meet with Mark Carney by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$112 @ 22.4¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?Politics
Yes$108 @ 22.7¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?Politics
Yes$107 @ 3.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?—
Yes$105 @ 3.5¢
Will Data center utility cost protection become law this year?Politics
Yes$89 @ 22.4¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Politics
Yes$80 @ 16.0¢
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
Yes$80 @ 4.7¢
ChatGPT Outage by September 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$80 @ 97.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by September 30?Politics
Yes$76 @ 3.8¢
Will Export-control chip security become law this year?Politics
Yes$73 @ 36.6¢
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?Politics
Yes$70 @ 13.7¢