0x648b…00ba

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x648bad7080caa1a9931b2774b20e87eca75900ba
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+14.0pp

ROI

+12%

Win rate

50% @ 36.2¢

Brier

0.236

Resolved

1233

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	43% (49/115)	+46%	115
Other	42% (16/38)	+18%	38
Sports	45% (9/20)	-32%	20
Geopolitics	28% (5/18)	-37%	18
Economy	50% (3/6)	-44%	6
Crypto	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Science	100% (1/1)	+70%	1

Politics115 bets
Hit rate
43% (49/115)
ROI
+46%
Other38 bets
Hit rate
42% (16/38)
ROI
+18%
Sports20 bets
Hit rate
45% (9/20)
ROI
-32%
Geopolitics18 bets
Hit rate
28% (5/18)
ROI
-37%
Economy6 bets
Hit rate
50% (3/6)
ROI
-44%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+70%

Track record

42% hit · 83/200

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	$2	18.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	No	$6	15.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$6	58.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$4	8.5¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$20	81.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$51	68.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$115	21.0¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	No	$7	72.0¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	Yes	$2	84.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$7	32.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$26	73.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$24	19.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$69	56.8¢	Won
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	$1	10.0¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	No	$4	81.0¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	$8	38.6¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	$11	52.1¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$53	73.5¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$52	16.0¢	Lost
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	No	$19	0.4¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?	No	$5	89.5¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?	Yes	$4	3.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	$30	63.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$22	24.4¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$123	0.3¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$5	5.7¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	No	$1	18.0¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	Yes	$8	80.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$14	84.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	$19	5.6¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	$1	12.0¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	Yes	$5	90.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	$2	11.4¢	Lost
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	$3	12.1¢	Lost
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$21	83.6¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$1	12.2¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	$47	66.8¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$14	30.9¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?	No	$4	80.0¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?	Yes	$5	7.2¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	$1	54.2¢	Lost
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	16.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$25	39.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$411	27.3¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	No	$2	10.8¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	Yes	$4	86.9¢	Lost
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	$31	75.4¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$17	21.5¢	Lost
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	$2	5.0¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	No	$4	87.0¢	Won

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 18.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$6 @ 15.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$6 @ 58.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$4 @ 8.5¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$20 @ 81.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$51 @ 68.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$115 @ 21.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?Won
No$7 @ 72.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?Lost
Yes$2 @ 84.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$7 @ 32.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$26 @ 73.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$24 @ 19.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$69 @ 56.8¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Won
No$4 @ 81.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Won
No$8 @ 38.6¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Lost
Yes$11 @ 52.1¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$53 @ 73.5¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$52 @ 16.0¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$19 @ 0.4¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?Won
No$5 @ 89.5¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?Lost
Yes$4 @ 3.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Won
No$30 @ 63.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$22 @ 24.4¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$123 @ 0.3¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.7¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?Won
No$1 @ 18.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?Lost
Yes$8 @ 80.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
No$14 @ 84.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$19 @ 5.6¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?Won
No$1 @ 12.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 90.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Lost
Yes$2 @ 11.4¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
No$3 @ 12.1¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$21 @ 83.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$1 @ 12.2¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$47 @ 66.8¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$14 @ 30.9¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?Won
No$4 @ 80.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?Lost
Yes$5 @ 7.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 54.2¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 16.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$25 @ 39.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$411 @ 27.3¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?Won
No$2 @ 10.8¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?Lost
Yes$4 @ 86.9¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Won
No$31 @ 75.4¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$17 @ 21.5¢
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Lost
Yes$2 @ 5.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Won
No$4 @ 87.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?	Politics	No	$72	90.1¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	No	$36	95.1¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$31	94.0¢
New pandemic in 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$22	95.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$22	10.5¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$21	99.6¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$10	96.3¢
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$10	95.4¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$7	6.2¢
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$5	95.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	Politics	No	$4	99.4¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	No	$4	56.9¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	No	$4	72.0¢
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$3	85.0¢
Weed rescheduled by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$3	20.3¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	Yes	$3	8.3¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3	7.4¢
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Politics	No	$3	95.9¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$3	84.8¢
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	No	$2	73.1¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$2	61.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$2	20.2¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$2	50.8¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Politics	No	$2	66.0¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$2	90.0¢
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$2	80.3¢
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Economy	No	$2	56.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	8.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$1	30.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$1	1.0¢

Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?Politics
No$72 @ 90.1¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
No$36 @ 95.1¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$31 @ 94.0¢
New pandemic in 2026?Geopolitics
No$22 @ 95.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$22 @ 10.5¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
No$21 @ 99.6¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
No$10 @ 96.3¢
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$10 @ 95.4¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$7 @ 6.2¢
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$5 @ 95.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HousePolitics
No$4 @ 99.4¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
No$4 @ 56.9¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
No$4 @ 72.0¢
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$3 @ 85.0¢
Weed rescheduled by December 31?Politics
Yes$3 @ 20.3¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
Yes$3 @ 8.3¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$3 @ 7.4¢
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Politics
No$3 @ 95.9¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$3 @ 84.8¢
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
No$2 @ 73.1¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$2 @ 61.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$2 @ 20.2¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$2 @ 50.8¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Politics
No$2 @ 66.0¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics
No$2 @ 90.0¢
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Economy
Yes$2 @ 80.3¢
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Economy
No$2 @ 56.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 8.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$1 @ 30.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢