← Smart money
0x645a…fd84
SharpEdge
+19.3pp
ROI
+21%
Win rate
88% @ 69.0¢
Brier
0.074
Resolved
828
Avg size
$1
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 60% (3/5) | -70% | 5 |
| Other | 100% (2/2) | +36% | 2 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (1/1) | +27% | 1 |
- Politics5 bets
- Hit rate
- 60% (3/5)
- ROI
- -70%
- Other2 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (2/2)
- ROI
- +36%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +27%
Track record
75% hit · 6/8| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? | No | $690 | 75.0¢ | Won |
| Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? | No | $7 | 25.0¢ | Won |
| US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? | No | $42 | 63.1¢ | Won |
| Will Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit? | No | $20 | 33.0¢ | Lost |
| Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? | No | $725 | 41.1¢ | Lost |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | No | $22 | 64.2¢ | Won |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | $148 | 79.5¢ | Won |
| Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? | No | $59 | 78.8¢ | Won |
- No$690 @ 75.0¢
- No$7 @ 25.0¢
- No$42 @ 63.1¢
- No$20 @ 33.0¢
- No$725 @ 41.1¢
- No$22 @ 64.2¢
- No$148 @ 79.5¢
- No$59 @ 78.8¢
Recent trades
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Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31? | Politics | No | $132 | 38.1¢ |
- No$132 @ 38.1¢