0x5d2f…4adb

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x5d2f49295387e01a49f0a3e59449ceed791c4adb
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.1pp

ROI

+12%

Win rate

40% @ 34.1¢

Brier

0.115

Resolved

823

Avg size

$191

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	59% (107/181)	+21%	181
Sports	46% (11/24)	-9%	24
Politics	53% (8/15)	-30%	15
Crypto	67% (6/9)	+49%	9
Geopolitics	50% (3/6)	-1%	6
Culture	25% (1/4)	+101%	4
Tech	67% (2/3)	-82%	3
Economy	50% (1/2)	-43%	2

Other181 bets
Hit rate
59% (107/181)
ROI
+21%
Sports24 bets
Hit rate
46% (11/24)
ROI
-9%
Politics15 bets
Hit rate
53% (8/15)
ROI
-30%
Crypto9 bets
Hit rate
67% (6/9)
ROI
+49%
Geopolitics6 bets
Hit rate
50% (3/6)
ROI
-1%
Culture4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
+101%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-82%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-43%

Track record

57% hit · 139/244

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Yes	$2.3k	75.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?	Yes	$1000	73.9¢	Won
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?	No	$500	86.6¢	Won
Will the Australian hero donation campaign reach $1.7 million by Dec 15?	No	$100	12.3¢	Lost
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?	No	$100	9.1¢	Lost
Will Casemiro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$1	55.0¢	Lost
Berachain airdrop in Q1 2025?	No	$200	7.0¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?	No	$1.0k	44.9¢	Won
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$88	3.0¢	Lost
Another Israel military action on Yemen in May?	No	$100	14.2¢	Lost
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?	No	$900	30.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before July?	No	$100	19.5¢	Won
Will Solana dip to $60 in June?	No	$960	48.0¢	Won
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?	Yes	$100	55.0¢	Lost
Will Grok-4 be the top AI before August?	No	$500	64.1¢	Won
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.025T by September 30?	No	$60	75.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?	No	$500	41.3¢	Won
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$56	6.0¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025?	Yes	$100	68.4¢	Won
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 20, 2026?	Yes	$649	77.1¢	Won
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 15, 2026?	Yes	$1.8k	79.3¢	Won
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?	No	$100	16.7¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$1.0k	29.0¢	Lost
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$580	58.0¢	Lost
Will Netherlands be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.6k	81.3¢	Won
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June?	No	$105	25.0¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?	Yes	$500	63.0¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	$849	84.0¢	Won
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$1.0k	64.0¢	Won
Linea airdrop in Q1 2025?	No	$30	23.0¢	Won
Ukraine hits Moscow by September 30?	Yes	$300	32.7¢	Lost
Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m?	Yes	$10	1.8¢	Lost
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May?	Yes	$100	31.9¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?	No	$1.0k	69.9¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?	No	$1.0k	87.0¢	Won
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?	No	$750	75.0¢	Won
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$105	1.9¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Sviato-Pokrovske by December 31?	No	$100	11.1¢	Lost
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$105	3.8¢	Lost
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 14, 2026?	Yes	$200	75.0¢	Lost
Will Berachain launch a token in January?	No	$300	85.2¢	Won
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19?	No	$75	75.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$1000	71.0¢	Won
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 22, 2026?	Yes	$19	70.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	No	$1000	90.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 30?	No	$500	34.4¢	Lost
Will Federico Valverde score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$12	30.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$800	40.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$800	40.0¢	Lost
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?	No	$300	30.0¢	Lost

World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 75.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?Won
Yes$1000 @ 73.9¢
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?Won
No$500 @ 86.6¢
Will the Australian hero donation campaign reach $1.7 million by Dec 15?Lost
No$100 @ 12.3¢
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?Lost
No$100 @ 9.1¢
Will Casemiro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$1 @ 55.0¢
Berachain airdrop in Q1 2025?Lost
No$200 @ 7.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?Won
No$1.0k @ 44.9¢
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$88 @ 3.0¢
Another Israel military action on Yemen in May?Lost
No$100 @ 14.2¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?Won
No$900 @ 30.0¢
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before July?Won
No$100 @ 19.5¢
Will Solana dip to $60 in June?Won
No$960 @ 48.0¢
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?Lost
Yes$100 @ 55.0¢
Will Grok-4 be the top AI before August?Won
No$500 @ 64.1¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.025T by September 30?Won
No$60 @ 75.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?Won
No$500 @ 41.3¢
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$56 @ 6.0¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025?Won
Yes$100 @ 68.4¢
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 20, 2026?Won
Yes$649 @ 77.1¢
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 15, 2026?Won
Yes$1.8k @ 79.3¢
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?Lost
No$100 @ 16.7¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$1.0k @ 29.0¢
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$580 @ 58.0¢
Will Netherlands be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 81.3¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June?Lost
No$105 @ 25.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?Lost
Yes$500 @ 63.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$849 @ 84.0¢
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 64.0¢
Linea airdrop in Q1 2025?Won
No$30 @ 23.0¢
Ukraine hits Moscow by September 30?Lost
Yes$300 @ 32.7¢
Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m?Lost
Yes$10 @ 1.8¢
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May?Lost
Yes$100 @ 31.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?Won
No$1.0k @ 69.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?Won
No$1.0k @ 87.0¢
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?Won
No$750 @ 75.0¢
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$105 @ 1.9¢
Will Russia enter Sviato-Pokrovske by December 31?Lost
No$100 @ 11.1¢
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$105 @ 3.8¢
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$200 @ 75.0¢
Will Berachain launch a token in January?Won
No$300 @ 85.2¢
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19?Lost
No$75 @ 75.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$1000 @ 71.0¢
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 22, 2026?Won
Yes$19 @ 70.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 14?Won
No$1000 @ 90.0¢
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 30?Lost
No$500 @ 34.4¢
Will Federico Valverde score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$12 @ 30.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$800 @ 40.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$800 @ 40.0¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?Lost
No$300 @ 30.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$2.0k	88.6¢
Over $50M committed to the Jumper public sale?	Crypto	No	$1.8k	83.7¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.5k	15.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?	Crypto	Yes	$1.3k	64.0¢
Will 2026 rank 6th or higher among the highest domestic box office years?	Culture	Yes	$1.0k	24.9¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	Tech	No	$1.0k	50.0¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$1.0k	50.0¢
Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 17m?	Culture	No	$1000	20.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$1000	22.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$999	34.5¢
Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 28m?	Culture	No	$360	12.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$293	16.8¢
Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 9m?	Culture	No	$1	15.0¢

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
Yes$2.0k @ 88.6¢
Over $50M committed to the Jumper public sale?Crypto
No$1.8k @ 83.7¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.5k @ 15.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?Crypto
Yes$1.3k @ 64.0¢
Will 2026 rank 6th or higher among the highest domestic box office years?Culture
Yes$1.0k @ 24.9¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?Tech
No$1.0k @ 50.0¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$1.0k @ 50.0¢
Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 17m?Culture
No$1000 @ 20.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$1000 @ 22.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$999 @ 34.5¢
Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 28m?Culture
No$360 @ 12.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?Tech
No$293 @ 16.8¢
Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 9m?Culture
No$1 @ 15.0¢