0x5b8d…a1ae

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x5b8d2dc97625e7c51954bc36371c30a902b5a1ae
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.2pp

ROI

+12%

Win rate

72% @ 65.6¢

Brier

0.074

Resolved

2114

Avg size

$143

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	36% (74/205)	+12%	205
Sports	49% (20/41)	+40%	41
Politics	44% (11/25)	+2%	25
Geopolitics	22% (2/9)	-76%	9
Crypto	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Economy	100% (1/1)	+12%	1

Other205 bets
Hit rate
36% (74/205)
ROI
+12%
Sports41 bets
Hit rate
49% (20/41)
ROI
+40%
Politics25 bets
Hit rate
44% (11/25)
ROI
+2%
Geopolitics9 bets
Hit rate
22% (2/9)
ROI
-76%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+12%

Track record

38% hit · 108/283

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?	No	$6	19.7¢	Lost
Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	Yes	$0	3.3¢	Lost
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?	Yes	$7	71.0¢	Won
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	No	$164	54.7¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$58	37.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Yes	$85	17.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	Yes	$8	8.2¢	Lost
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 21 minutes?	No	$6	59.0¢	Lost
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?	Yes	$153	51.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$36	36.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	$231	47.6¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	No	$20	74.8¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1	No	$37	45.5¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1	Yes	$18	29.5¢	Lost
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	No	$168	84.0¢	Won
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$116	58.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$20	73.5¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$20	13.6¢	Lost
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$6	73.7¢	Won
Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$3	31.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?	No	$54	67.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?	Yes	$191	30.7¢	Lost
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$10	5.2¢	Lost
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$6	28.0¢	Lost
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$9	86.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$364	53.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?	Yes	$88	44.0¢	Won
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be greater than 3.5%?	No	$1	55.0¢	Lost
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be greater than 3.5%?	Yes	$4	65.1¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$128	17.5¢	Lost
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?	Yes	$26	15.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12?	No	$14	33.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?	Yes	$50	41.0¢	Lost
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$5	14.0¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	$105	8.3¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	No	$66	66.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 8?	Yes	$47	47.2¢	Lost
Will G2 Esports win LoL Worlds 2025?	Yes	$8	1.5¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1?	Yes	$5	8.0¢	Lost
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$156	52.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?	Yes	$72	72.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 31?	No	$21	41.0¢	Won
Odds of US x Venezuela Military Engagement in 2025 Under 40% by Friday?	No	$40	52.9¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	Yes	$280	28.0¢	Lost
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$4	23.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?	No	$210	69.5¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?	Yes	$7	33.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by December 31?	Yes	$30	71.0¢	Won
Mallorca vs. Getafe: Both Teams to Score	No	$3	45.0¢	Won

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?Lost
No$6 @ 19.7¢
Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?Lost
Yes$0 @ 3.3¢
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?Won
Yes$7 @ 71.0¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Lost
No$164 @ 54.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$58 @ 37.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Won
Yes$85 @ 17.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Lost
Yes$8 @ 8.2¢
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 21 minutes?Lost
No$6 @ 59.0¢
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?Won
Yes$153 @ 51.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$36 @ 36.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Won
No$231 @ 47.6¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
No$20 @ 74.8¢
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1Won
No$37 @ 45.5¢
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1Lost
Yes$18 @ 29.5¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Won
No$168 @ 84.0¢
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$116 @ 58.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$20 @ 73.5¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$20 @ 13.6¢
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$6 @ 73.7¢
Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$3 @ 31.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?Won
No$54 @ 67.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?Lost
Yes$191 @ 30.7¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$10 @ 5.2¢
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$6 @ 28.0¢
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$9 @ 86.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$364 @ 53.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Won
Yes$88 @ 44.0¢
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be greater than 3.5%?Lost
No$1 @ 55.0¢
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be greater than 3.5%?Won
Yes$4 @ 65.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$128 @ 17.5¢
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?Won
Yes$26 @ 15.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12?Lost
No$14 @ 33.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?Lost
Yes$50 @ 41.0¢
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$5 @ 14.0¢
Will France win on 2026-07-14?Lost
Yes$105 @ 8.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?Won
No$66 @ 66.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 8?Lost
Yes$47 @ 47.2¢
Will G2 Esports win LoL Worlds 2025?Lost
Yes$8 @ 1.5¢
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1?Lost
Yes$5 @ 8.0¢
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$156 @ 52.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?Lost
Yes$72 @ 72.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 31?Won
No$21 @ 41.0¢
Odds of US x Venezuela Military Engagement in 2025 Under 40% by Friday?Lost
No$40 @ 52.9¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Lost
Yes$280 @ 28.0¢
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$4 @ 23.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?Won
No$210 @ 69.5¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?Lost
Yes$7 @ 33.0¢
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by December 31?Won
Yes$30 @ 71.0¢
Mallorca vs. Getafe: Both Teams to ScoreWon
No$3 @ 45.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$322	23.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$127	80.8¢
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	No	$80	72.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$63	31.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$51	51.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$30	19.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$29	74.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$18	18.7¢
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$16	16.6¢
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$12	26.4¢
Will Russia enter Borova by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$12	16.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	No	$10	75.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$10	69.0¢
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$6	16.6¢
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$6	21.0¢
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$5	76.0¢
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$5	4.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4	29.5¢
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$4	6.0¢
Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$2	50.0¢
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$2	21.0¢
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$2	23.0¢

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$322 @ 23.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$127 @ 80.8¢
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
No$80 @ 72.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$63 @ 31.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$51 @ 51.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
Yes$30 @ 19.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$29 @ 74.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$18 @ 18.7¢
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
Yes$16 @ 16.6¢
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$12 @ 26.4¢
Will Russia enter Borova by September 30?Politics
Yes$12 @ 16.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
No$10 @ 75.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$10 @ 69.0¢
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$6 @ 16.6¢
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$6 @ 21.0¢
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$5 @ 76.0¢
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$5 @ 4.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$4 @ 29.5¢
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$4 @ 6.0¢
Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$2 @ 50.0¢
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$2 @ 21.0¢
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?Tech
No$2 @ 23.0¢