← Smart money
0x5b68…bdef
SharpEdge
+12.4pp
ROI
+31%
Win rate
71% @ 58.8¢
Brier
0.141
Resolved
87
Avg size
$302
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 56% (20/36) | +33% | 36 |
| Other | 67% (16/24) | +7% | 24 |
| Geopolitics | 0% (0/2) | -100% | 2 |
- Politics36 bets
- Hit rate
- 56% (20/36)
- ROI
- +33%
- Other24 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (16/24)
- ROI
- +7%
- Geopolitics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/2)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
58% hit · 36/62- Yes$100 @ 41.7¢
- Yes$100 @ 51.8¢
- Yes$6 @ 1.5¢
- Yes$200 @ 64.7¢
- Yes$68 @ 3.4¢
- No$245 @ 81.0¢
- Yes$216 @ 48.5¢
- No$460 @ 87.0¢
- Yes$152 @ 11.6¢
- No$245 @ 42.0¢
- Yes$180 @ 87.3¢
- Yes$370 @ 89.4¢
- No$140 @ 78.0¢
- Yes$5 @ 82.7¢
- Yes$16 @ 15.5¢
- Yes$536 @ 86.0¢
- No$1.1k @ 74.3¢
- Yes$21 @ 21.0¢
- Yes$3 @ 2.8¢
- No$1.9k @ 63.4¢
- No$100 @ 82.0¢
- No$9.6k @ 66.7¢
- Yes$62 @ 5.5¢
- No$360 @ 77.3¢
- No$700 @ 80.8¢
- No$667 @ 65.1¢
- Yes$2 @ 1.9¢
- Yes$4 @ 4.0¢
- No$170 @ 90.0¢
- Yes$5 @ 4.7¢
- No$1.1k @ 78.8¢
- Yes$36 @ 49.0¢
- No$280 @ 89.1¢
- Yes$1.7k @ 82.8¢
- Yes$205 @ 68.2¢
- No$180 @ 88.0¢
- No$400 @ 80.0¢
- Yes$5 @ 2.7¢
- No$130 @ 83.0¢
- No$200 @ 80.0¢
- Yes$140 @ 83.7¢
- Yes$150 @ 52.7¢
- No$359 @ 22.8¢
- Yes$10 @ 10.7¢
- No$118 @ 83.4¢
- Yes$2 @ 0.6¢
- No$148 @ 72.0¢
- Yes$90 @ 9.0¢
- Yes$180 @ 78.7¢
- No$430 @ 85.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $1.3k | 64.9¢ |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | Politics | No | $600 | 59.0¢ |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? | — | Yes | $370 | 89.4¢ |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | Politics | Yes | $200 | 64.7¢ |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $152 | 11.6¢ |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? | Politics | Yes | $100 | 51.8¢ |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | Politics | Yes | $100 | 41.7¢ |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? | Politics | No | $39 | 3.6¢ |
| QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? | — | No | $24 | 8.6¢ |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $8 | 8.0¢ |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 18? | Politics | Yes | $6 | 1.5¢ |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | Politics | Yes | $2 | 1.9¢ |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | — | Yes | $2 | 0.6¢ |
- No$1.3k @ 64.9¢
- No$600 @ 59.0¢
- Yes$370 @ 89.4¢
- Yes$200 @ 64.7¢
- Yes$152 @ 11.6¢
- Yes$100 @ 51.8¢
- Yes$100 @ 41.7¢
- No$39 @ 3.6¢
- No$24 @ 8.6¢
- Yes$8 @ 8.0¢
- Yes$6 @ 1.5¢
- Yes$2 @ 1.9¢
- Yes$2 @ 0.6¢