0x5b5e…30d3

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x5b5e047ddd5e553cbaee58730e39f9801de130d3
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.3pp

ROI

+22%

Win rate

75% @ 66.2¢

Brier

0.146

Resolved

208

Avg size

$33

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	65% (28/43)	+19%	43
Other	74% (17/23)	-1%	23
Geopolitics	78% (14/18)	+45%	18

Politics43 bets
Hit rate
65% (28/43)
ROI
+19%
Other23 bets
Hit rate
74% (17/23)
ROI
-1%
Geopolitics18 bets
Hit rate
78% (14/18)
ROI
+45%

Track record

70% hit · 59/84

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$22	85.0¢	Won
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?	No	$166	86.4¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$7	28.2¢	Lost
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	No	$31	71.3¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$1	7.5¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$85	84.8¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	No	$1	86.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	No	$25	4.3¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	$25	87.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$11	21.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?	Yes	$25	69.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?	Yes	$21	82.0¢	Won
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?	No	$2	10.0¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	Yes	$10	88.0¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$20	67.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	No	$50	74.5¢	Won
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	No	$89	89.1¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	$116	87.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	$51	50.8¢	Won
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?	No	$100	85.0¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$81	79.8¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$289	64.3¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	No	$360	86.5¢	Won
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	No	$6	81.4¢	Won
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 4?	Yes	$0	1.9¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026?	No	$189	83.5¢	Won
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	$17	85.0¢	Won
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?	Yes	$12	60.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$499	87.9¢	Won
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?	No	$35	70.0¢	Won
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?	No	$35	70.1¢	Won
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$419	78.3¢	Won
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?	No	$15	77.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?	No	$66	88.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$59	71.6¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$1	27.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	$100	80.0¢	Won
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7?	Yes	$1	9.0¢	Lost
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	$1	68.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	$1	59.0¢	Lost
Will USD be between 2.1M and 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	$3	12.9¢	Won
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?	Yes	$18	35.9¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	No	$213	89.3¢	Won
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10?	No	$28	89.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?	No	$26	75.6¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?	Yes	$200	82.0¢	Won
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 27, 2026?	No	$1	85.0¢	Won
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	No	$90	71.3¢	Won
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Yes	$5	21.4¢	Lost
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	Yes	$3	28.0¢	Lost

Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$22 @ 85.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?Won
No$166 @ 86.4¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$7 @ 28.2¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Won
No$31 @ 71.3¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.5¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$85 @ 84.8¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 86.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Lost
No$25 @ 4.3¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
No$25 @ 87.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$11 @ 21.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Won
Yes$25 @ 69.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?Won
Yes$21 @ 82.0¢
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 10.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?Won
Yes$10 @ 88.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$20 @ 67.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?Won
No$50 @ 74.5¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?Won
No$89 @ 89.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Won
No$116 @ 87.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Won
No$51 @ 50.8¢
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 85.0¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$81 @ 79.8¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$289 @ 64.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Won
No$360 @ 86.5¢
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Won
No$6 @ 81.4¢
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 4?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.9¢
Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026?Won
No$189 @ 83.5¢
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2026?Won
No$17 @ 85.0¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?Won
Yes$12 @ 60.0¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
No$499 @ 87.9¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?Won
No$35 @ 70.0¢
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?Won
No$35 @ 70.1¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$419 @ 78.3¢
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?Lost
No$15 @ 77.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?Won
No$66 @ 88.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$59 @ 71.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 27.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 80.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7?Lost
Yes$1 @ 9.0¢
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 68.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 59.0¢
Will USD be between 2.1M and 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31?Won
Yes$3 @ 12.9¢
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?Lost
Yes$18 @ 35.9¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Won
No$213 @ 89.3¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10?Won
No$28 @ 89.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?Won
No$26 @ 75.6¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?Won
Yes$200 @ 82.0¢
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 27, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 85.0¢
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Won
No$90 @ 71.3¢
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 21.4¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Lost
Yes$3 @ 28.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.4k	93.3¢
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$81	81.4¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Politics	No	$57	79.1¢
Will USD be between 2.5M and 3.0M Iranian rials on December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$25	32.0¢
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$11	40.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$5	66.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Politics	Yes	$1	76.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$1	54.1¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$0	31.4¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$1.4k @ 93.3¢
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?Geopolitics
No$81 @ 81.4¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Politics
No$57 @ 79.1¢
Will USD be between 2.5M and 3.0M Iranian rials on December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$25 @ 32.0¢
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$11 @ 40.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Geopolitics
Yes$5 @ 66.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Politics
Yes$1 @ 76.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?Geopolitics
No$1 @ 54.1¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$0 @ 31.4¢