0x5a7b…e9eb

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x5a7b3328e8756579bfd364ba92c5c589c7bae9eb
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.0pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

42% @ 37.4¢

Brier

0.112

Resolved

1885

Avg size

$203

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	42% (31/73)	+13%	73
Politics	48% (11/23)	+9%	23
Sports	38% (5/13)	+21%	13
Tech	29% (2/7)	-40%	7
Geopolitics	75% (3/4)	+22%	4
Crypto	25% (1/4)	+79%	4
Economy	100% (1/1)	+43%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+68%	1

Other73 bets
Hit rate
42% (31/73)
ROI
+13%
Politics23 bets
Hit rate
48% (11/23)
ROI
+9%
Sports13 bets
Hit rate
38% (5/13)
ROI
+21%
Tech7 bets
Hit rate
29% (2/7)
ROI
-40%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+22%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
+79%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+43%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+68%

Track record

44% hit · 55/126

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 race by September 30?	Yes	$840	56.0¢	Lost
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.6k	12.4¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Yes	$324	8.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?	Yes	$317	3.1¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?	Yes	$1.2k	5.7¢	Lost
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.5k	8.6¢	Lost
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$720	1.8¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?	Yes	$141	1.1¢	Lost
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April?	Yes	$117	0.8¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$1.9k	64.3¢	Won
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?	Yes	$2.3k	17.6¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$7.0k	57.2¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$3.2k	63.8¢	Won
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$11.7k	21.4¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?	No	$2.3k	76.3¢	Won
Will Solana dip to $70 in May?	Yes	$224	6.4¢	Lost
X banned in U.K. by March 31?	Yes	$780	8.5¢	Lost
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$8.8k	30.3¢	Lost
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	$1.3k	38.1¢	Won
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$415	83.0¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$4.0k	40.5¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$20.4k	80.7¢	Won
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$15.5k	72.1¢	Won
Will Solana dip to $60 in April?	Yes	$182	9.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?	Yes	$7	0.7¢	Lost
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026?	No	$49	64.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$2.8k	57.0¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	$725	78.0¢	Won
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?	Yes	$103.3k	86.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$5.2k	43.0¢	Won
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$140	1.4¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Yes	$1.2k	6.7¢	Lost
Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation?	Yes	$2.9k	89.0¢	Lost
QatarEnergy resumes LNG production by March 14?	No	$5.1k	78.1¢	Won
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$800	16.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June?	Yes	$446	3.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$20.5k	73.9¢	Won
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	$14.3k	86.5¢	Won
USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	$560	56.0¢	Won
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$178	89.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	$2.7k	8.9¢	Lost
USD.AI FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	$2.2k	44.7¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	Yes	$170	4.9¢	Won
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$1.8k	88.8¢	Won
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	$2.2k	1.7¢	Lost
Will Kristi Noem be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	$723	72.3¢	Won
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	Yes	$1.3k	32.6¢	Lost
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$395	26.3¢	Lost
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$390	85.0¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	$14.7k	65.2¢	Won

Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 race by September 30?Lost
Yes$840 @ 56.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.6k @ 12.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?Lost
Yes$324 @ 8.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?Lost
Yes$317 @ 3.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 5.7¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 8.6¢
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$720 @ 1.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?Lost
Yes$141 @ 1.1¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April?Lost
Yes$117 @ 0.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$1.9k @ 64.3¢
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.3k @ 17.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$7.0k @ 57.2¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$3.2k @ 63.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$11.7k @ 21.4¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?Won
No$2.3k @ 76.3¢
Will Solana dip to $70 in May?Lost
Yes$224 @ 6.4¢
X banned in U.K. by March 31?Lost
Yes$780 @ 8.5¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$8.8k @ 30.3¢
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 38.1¢
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$415 @ 83.0¢
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$4.0k @ 40.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$20.4k @ 80.7¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$15.5k @ 72.1¢
Will Solana dip to $60 in April?Lost
Yes$182 @ 9.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?Lost
Yes$7 @ 0.7¢
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026?Won
No$49 @ 64.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$2.8k @ 57.0¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?Won
No$725 @ 78.0¢
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?Won
Yes$103.3k @ 86.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$5.2k @ 43.0¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$140 @ 1.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 6.7¢
Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation?Lost
Yes$2.9k @ 89.0¢
QatarEnergy resumes LNG production by March 14?Won
No$5.1k @ 78.1¢
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$800 @ 16.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June?Lost
Yes$446 @ 3.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
No$20.5k @ 73.9¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Won
No$14.3k @ 86.5¢
USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch?Won
Yes$560 @ 56.0¢
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$178 @ 89.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Lost
No$2.7k @ 8.9¢
USD.AI FDV above $250M one day after launch?Won
Yes$2.2k @ 44.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Won
Yes$170 @ 4.9¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$1.8k @ 88.8¢
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?Lost
Yes$2.2k @ 1.7¢
Will Kristi Noem be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Won
Yes$723 @ 72.3¢
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 32.6¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
Yes$395 @ 26.3¢
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$390 @ 85.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Won
No$14.7k @ 65.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$14.9k	94.0¢
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Crypto	No	$12.0k	69.1¢
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$9.0k	90.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$8.8k	54.1¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	No	$8.8k	88.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	No	$6.7k	81.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$5.3k	90.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$4.3k	91.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$4.0k	95.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$3.8k	90.0¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.0k	57.5¢
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$2.7k	43.9¢
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$2.6k	0.9¢
Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$2.5k	93.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2.2k	22.0¢
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.9k	19.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.8k	15.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.8k	84.1¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	41.0¢
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	0.8¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	No	$1.1k	46.3¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1.1k	45.8¢
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$1.0k	22.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$978	88.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$870	29.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$853	25.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$727	69.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$720	72.0¢
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$650	65.0¢
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$589	22.5¢

Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$14.9k @ 94.0¢
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?Crypto
No$12.0k @ 69.1¢
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$9.0k @ 90.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$8.8k @ 54.1¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
No$8.8k @ 88.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
No$6.7k @ 81.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$5.3k @ 90.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$4.3k @ 91.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$4.0k @ 95.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$3.8k @ 90.0¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$3.0k @ 57.5¢
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$2.7k @ 43.9¢
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$2.6k @ 0.9¢
Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$2.5k @ 93.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$2.2k @ 22.0¢
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.9k @ 19.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$1.8k @ 15.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Politics
No$1.8k @ 84.1¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 41.0¢
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 0.8¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
No$1.1k @ 46.3¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026?Tech
Yes$1.1k @ 45.8¢
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$1.0k @ 22.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$978 @ 88.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$870 @ 29.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?Tech
Yes$853 @ 25.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$727 @ 69.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$720 @ 72.0¢
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
Yes$650 @ 65.0¢
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
Yes$589 @ 22.5¢