0x5a45…f628

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x5a45565906b8478fe456a0d313ce8839b3e7f628
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.2pp

ROI

+5%

Win rate

82% @ 75.1¢

Brier

0.087

Resolved

593

Avg size

$319

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	78% (32/41)	+10%	41
Politics	33% (2/6)	-5%	6
Sports	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+127%	1

Other41 bets
Hit rate
78% (32/41)
ROI
+10%
Politics6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
-5%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+127%

Track record

70% hit · 35/50

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	No	$4.0k	88.1¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	Yes	$231	16.1¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?	No	$90	90.0¢	Won
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in August?	Yes	$167	26.9¢	Lost
Spurs vs. Clippers	Spurs	$102	60.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June?	No	$8.8k	84.5¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?	No	$368	79.5¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$4	44.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June?	No	$6.4k	80.6¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	$6.6k	82.3¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	No	$7.7k	85.6¢	Won
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in August?	Yes	$1.5k	45.8¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	No	$3.7k	84.4¢	Lost
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June?	No	$2.1k	84.8¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	No	$4.4k	80.4¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	No	$1.1k	89.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$2.8k	66.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	Yes	$1.5k	56.3¢	Won
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?	Yes	$2.9k	49.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	Yes	$719	26.1¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	No	$17.6k	87.4¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?	No	$6.3k	88.1¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	$3.6k	87.5¢	Won
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31?	Yes	$190	70.2¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	No	$17.8k	84.7¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$18.0k	74.1¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?	No	$11.4k	82.1¢	Won
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	$130	76.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	No	$6.0k	81.4¢	Won
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	$1.2k	76.0¢	Lost
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 5th Weekend Box Office be less than 20m?	No	$663	87.8¢	Won
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	No	$7.7k	76.0¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	Yes	$4	35.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?	No	$918	87.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?	No	$14.7k	86.4¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?	No	$169	89.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?	Yes	$74	47.9¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	$5.4k	76.0¢	Won
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	$614	77.0¢	Lost
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 920m and 940m by August 31?	Yes	$5	0.9¢	Lost
Will "The Odyssey" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14.5m?	Yes	$280	83.0¢	Won
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in August?	No	$713	80.8¢	Won
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June?	No	$948	86.5¢	Won
Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?	Yes	$778	66.9¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August?	No	$2.4k	83.3¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?	No	$7.9k	78.7¢	Won
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	No	$737	72.8¢	Won
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	Yes	$7.0k	56.4¢	Lost
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	No	$128	42.0¢	Lost
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	$589	73.7¢	Won

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?Won
No$4.0k @ 88.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$231 @ 16.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?Won
No$90 @ 90.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in August?Lost
Yes$167 @ 26.9¢
Spurs vs. ClippersWon
Spurs$102 @ 60.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June?Won
No$8.8k @ 84.5¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?Won
No$368 @ 79.5¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 44.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June?Won
No$6.4k @ 80.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?Won
No$6.6k @ 82.3¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?Won
No$7.7k @ 85.6¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in August?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 45.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Lost
No$3.7k @ 84.4¢
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June?Won
No$2.1k @ 84.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?Won
No$4.4k @ 80.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?Won
No$1.1k @ 89.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$2.8k @ 66.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 56.3¢
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?Lost
Yes$2.9k @ 49.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$719 @ 26.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?Won
No$17.6k @ 87.4¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?Won
No$6.3k @ 88.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?Won
No$3.6k @ 87.5¢
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31?Won
Yes$190 @ 70.2¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?Won
No$17.8k @ 84.7¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$18.0k @ 74.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?Won
No$11.4k @ 82.1¢
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Lost
No$130 @ 76.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?Won
No$6.0k @ 81.4¢
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 76.0¢
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 5th Weekend Box Office be less than 20m?Won
No$663 @ 87.8¢
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Lost
No$7.7k @ 76.0¢
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$4 @ 35.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?Won
No$918 @ 87.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?Won
No$14.7k @ 86.4¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?Won
No$169 @ 89.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?Lost
Yes$74 @ 47.9¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Won
No$5.4k @ 76.0¢
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$614 @ 77.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 920m and 940m by August 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.9¢
Will "The Odyssey" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14.5m?Won
Yes$280 @ 83.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in August?Won
No$713 @ 80.8¢
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June?Won
No$948 @ 86.5¢
Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?Won
Yes$778 @ 66.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August?Won
No$2.4k @ 83.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?Won
No$7.9k @ 78.7¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?Won
No$737 @ 72.8¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?Lost
Yes$7.0k @ 56.4¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?Lost
No$128 @ 42.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?Won
Yes$589 @ 73.7¢

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