0x5a21…9318

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x5a218c7ad04135830a45c41aaed7294df7809318
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.0pp

ROI

+9%

Win rate

35% @ 32.2¢

Brier

0.115

Resolved

1197

Avg size

$17

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Science	44% (1468/3321)	+11%	3321
Other	28% (560/2008)	+2%	2008
Politics	27% (283/1054)	-15%	1054
Sports	24% (251/1028)	-4%	1028
Crypto	26% (119/464)	+1%	464
Tech	25% (67/266)	-7%	266
Culture	39% (92/236)	-18%	236
Economy	29% (12/42)	-47%	42
Geopolitics	38% (15/40)	-15%	40
Business	60% (3/5)	-15%	5

Science3321 bets
Hit rate
44% (1468/3321)
ROI
+11%
Other2008 bets
Hit rate
28% (560/2008)
ROI
+2%
Politics1054 bets
Hit rate
27% (283/1054)
ROI
-15%
Sports1028 bets
Hit rate
24% (251/1028)
ROI
-4%
Crypto464 bets
Hit rate
26% (119/464)
ROI
+1%
Tech266 bets
Hit rate
25% (67/266)
ROI
-7%
Culture236 bets
Hit rate
39% (92/236)
ROI
-18%
Economy42 bets
Hit rate
29% (12/42)
ROI
-47%
Geopolitics40 bets
Hit rate
38% (15/40)
ROI
-15%
Business5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
-15%

Track record

34% hit · 2870/8464

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?	Yes	$192	5.9¢	Lost
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Egypt?	Yes	$123	5.9¢	Lost
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao?	Yes	$381	5.9¢	Lost
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Yes	$131	5.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on November 8?	No	$0	2.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on November 8?	No	$18	74.6¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on November 8?	No	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on November 9?	No	$1	28.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on November 10?	No	$0	0.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on November 8?	No	$1	3.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on November 9?	No	$22	71.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or above $30 in 2026?	No	$2	4.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on November 10?	Yes	$0	0.5¢	Lost
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election by 50% or more?	No	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 10°C on November 9?	No	$23	45.4¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on November 8?	No	$118	72.9¢	Won
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	$0	1.3¢	Lost
Will "Ramayana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?	Yes	$2	0.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on November 9?	No	$26	59.3¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on November 10?	No	$8	77.9¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on November 10?	Yes	$0	4.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on November 9?	No	$23	51.1¢	Won
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on November 8?	No	$1	7.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on November 10?	No	$4	20.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?	No	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 7°C on November 8?	No	$19	23.9¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on November 10?	No	$39	76.3¢	Won
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on November 10?	Yes	$11	13.5¢	Lost
Will UKMTO publish 8-11 notices between November 2-November 8?	No	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on November 8?	No	$7	58.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on November 8?	Yes	$1	1.6¢	Lost
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 37m?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will "Ramayana" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 6m?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on November 17, 2026?	No	$2	72.1¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on November 10?	No	$18	71.8¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on November 8?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will the biggest earthquake on November 8, 2026 be 6.1 or more?	No	$2	10.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on November 10?	No	$29	12.2¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on November 8?	No	$27	38.4¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on November 8?	Yes	$41	87.6¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on November 9?	Yes	$8	14.2¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 9?	No	$950	78.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 9?	Yes	$82	7.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on November 9?	No	$14	5.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on November 8?	No	$13	35.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on November 8?	Yes	$16	39.9¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on November 9?	No	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October?	No	$4	65.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 10?	No	$255	84.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 10?	Yes	$2	7.0¢	Lost

Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire?Lost
Yes$192 @ 5.9¢
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Egypt?Lost
Yes$123 @ 5.9¢
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao?Lost
Yes$381 @ 5.9¢
Exact Score: Any Other Score?Lost
Yes$131 @ 5.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on November 8?Lost
No$0 @ 2.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on November 8?Won
No$18 @ 74.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on November 8?Lost
No$1 @ 1.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on November 9?Lost
No$1 @ 28.0¢
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on November 10?Lost
No$0 @ 0.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on November 8?Lost
No$1 @ 3.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on November 9?Won
No$22 @ 71.0¢
Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or above $30 in 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 4.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on November 10?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.5¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election by 50% or more?Lost
No$0 @ 0.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 10°C on November 9?Won
No$23 @ 45.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on November 8?Won
No$118 @ 72.9¢
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.3¢
Will "Ramayana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on November 9?Won
No$26 @ 59.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on November 10?Won
No$8 @ 77.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on November 10?Lost
Yes$0 @ 4.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on November 9?Won
No$23 @ 51.1¢
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on November 8?Lost
No$1 @ 7.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on November 10?Lost
No$4 @ 20.0¢
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?Lost
No$0 @ 1.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 7°C on November 8?Lost
No$19 @ 23.9¢
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on November 10?Won
No$39 @ 76.3¢
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on November 10?Lost
Yes$11 @ 13.5¢
Will UKMTO publish 8-11 notices between November 2-November 8?Lost
No$0 @ 1.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on November 8?Won
No$7 @ 58.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on November 8?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.6¢
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 37m?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will "Ramayana" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 6m?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on November 17, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 72.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on November 10?Won
No$18 @ 71.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on November 8?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will the biggest earthquake on November 8, 2026 be 6.1 or more?Won
No$2 @ 10.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on November 10?Lost
No$29 @ 12.2¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on November 8?Lost
No$27 @ 38.4¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on November 8?Won
Yes$41 @ 87.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on November 9?Won
Yes$8 @ 14.2¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 9?Won
No$950 @ 78.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 9?Lost
Yes$82 @ 7.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on November 9?Lost
No$14 @ 5.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on November 8?Lost
No$13 @ 35.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on November 8?Won
Yes$16 @ 39.9¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on November 9?Lost
No$0 @ 0.2¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October?Won
No$4 @ 65.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 10?Won
No$255 @ 84.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 10?Lost
Yes$2 @ 7.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$7.2k	70.3¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$2.8k	27.4¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?	Tech	No	$1.2k	74.4¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 1.0% and 2.0%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1.2k	50.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$1.1k	50.0¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 7.0% and 8.0%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$323	10.0¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 8.0% and 9.0%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$315	10.0¢
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$304	3.6¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be below 1.0%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$255	10.0¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 2.0% and 3.0%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$244	10.0¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be 9% or higher?	Geopolitics	Yes	$235	10.0¢
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$91	3.6¢
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$89	1.4¢
Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$89	1.4¢
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$88	1.4¢
Will ByteDance have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$88	1.4¢
Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$87	1.4¢
Will Stripe have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$86	1.4¢
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$84	1.4¢
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$83	3.6¢
Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$81	1.4¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$80	3.6¢
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$80	3.6¢
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$80	3.6¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$80	3.6¢
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$80	3.6¢
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$80	3.6¢
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$80	3.6¢
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$80	1.4¢
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$65	3.6¢

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$7.2k @ 70.3¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
Yes$2.8k @ 27.4¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?Tech
No$1.2k @ 74.4¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 1.0% and 2.0%?Geopolitics
Yes$1.2k @ 50.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$1.1k @ 50.0¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 7.0% and 8.0%?Geopolitics
Yes$323 @ 10.0¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 8.0% and 9.0%?Geopolitics
Yes$315 @ 10.0¢
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$304 @ 3.6¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be below 1.0%?Geopolitics
Yes$255 @ 10.0¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 2.0% and 3.0%?Geopolitics
Yes$244 @ 10.0¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be 9% or higher?Geopolitics
Yes$235 @ 10.0¢
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$91 @ 3.6¢
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$89 @ 1.4¢
Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$89 @ 1.4¢
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$88 @ 1.4¢
Will ByteDance have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$88 @ 1.4¢
Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$87 @ 1.4¢
Will Stripe have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$86 @ 1.4¢
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$84 @ 1.4¢
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$83 @ 3.6¢
Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$81 @ 1.4¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$80 @ 3.6¢
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$80 @ 3.6¢
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$80 @ 3.6¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$80 @ 3.6¢
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$80 @ 3.6¢
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$80 @ 3.6¢
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$80 @ 3.6¢
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$80 @ 1.4¢
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$65 @ 3.6¢