0x5763…1c22

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x576315d31495f237c216fb1973794838e6111c22
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+5.8pp

ROI

+4%

Win rate

68% @ 62.4¢

Brier

0.165

Resolved

1659

Avg size

$349

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	66% (142/215)	+4%	215
Politics	64% (18/28)	+2%	28
Crypto	89% (25/28)	+50%	28
Tech	67% (4/6)	-54%	6
Sports	60% (3/5)	-61%	5
Culture	67% (2/3)	+29%	3
Economy	100% (2/2)	+57%	2

Other215 bets
Hit rate
66% (142/215)
ROI
+4%
Politics28 bets
Hit rate
64% (18/28)
ROI
+2%
Crypto28 bets
Hit rate
89% (25/28)
ROI
+50%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
-54%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
-61%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+29%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+57%

Track record

68% hit · 196/287

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Microstrategy announce selling any Bitcoin October 27-November 2?	No	$106	97.3¢	Won
Will STRC hit $100 by October 31?	No	$76	38.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$991	61.0¢	Won
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	$2.8k	84.0¢	Won
Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Mbappé	$56	70.0¢	Won
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$13	43.8¢	Won
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$10	63.0¢	Lost
Will Microstrategy announce selling any Bitcoin October 13-19?	No	$300	99.0¢	Won
Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by October 31?	No	$66	36.9¢	Lost
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	No	$3	10.3¢	Lost
Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	No	$662	65.6¢	Lost
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase October 6-12?	Yes	$138	70.0¢	Won
Gemini 4.0 released by October 12, 2026?	No	$363	79.4¢	Won
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$197	65.0¢	Won
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	No	$8	3.8¢	Lost
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19?	No	$649	48.1¢	Won
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19?	Yes	$78	80.0¢	Lost
US government shutdown by October 1?	Yes	$6.0k	86.7¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	$4.5k	69.2¢	Won
Will Trump say "Board of Peace" during Saudi PM events on November 18?	No	$64	86.6¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Azerbaijan" during C5+1 Summit on November 6?	No	$258	62.0¢	Lost
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?	Yes	$171	76.4¢	Won
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	$1.1k	63.0¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$7.9k	87.7¢	Won
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1?	No	$47	52.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will Robinhood say "Football" during earnings call?	No	$176	34.8¢	Won
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 740k+ BTC by February 28?	No	$26	85.0¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	No	$867	89.0¢	Won
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin August 26-September 1?	No	$5.4k	87.3¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 September 29-October 5?	No	$2.4k	68.6¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 September 29-October 5?	Yes	$62	89.2¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?	No	$1.2k	68.3¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?	Yes	$408	80.9¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?	Yes	$104	6.6¢	Lost
Odds of US strikes Iran in February over 50% by Feb 13?	Yes	$4	10.6¢	Lost
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$1.3k	62.6¢	Won
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	$307	50.7¢	Lost
MicroStrategy purchases >4000 BTC August 26-September 1?	No	$1.1k	88.1¢	Won
Will Trump say "Biden" 3+ times at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21?	No	$196	67.0¢	Won
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?	ETH	$251	50.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Communist" or "Radical" 2+ times during the McDonald's Summit on November 17?	No	$15	57.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Globalist" or "Global" during WEF Address on January 21?	Yes	$124	81.1¢	Won
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?	No	$12.9k	59.9¢	Lost
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?	Yes	$8.0k	56.4¢	Won
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?	No	$8	39.3¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	$863	85.5¢	Won
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31?	Yes	$2.0k	73.4¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 23-29?	Yes	$332	81.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15?	Yes	$1.9k	83.8¢	Won

Will Microstrategy announce selling any Bitcoin October 27-November 2?Won
No$106 @ 97.3¢
Will STRC hit $100 by October 31?Won
No$76 @ 38.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$991 @ 61.0¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
No$2.8k @ 84.0¢
Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?Won
Mbappé$56 @ 70.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
No$13 @ 43.8¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
No$10 @ 63.0¢
Will Microstrategy announce selling any Bitcoin October 13-19?Won
No$300 @ 99.0¢
Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by October 31?Lost
No$66 @ 36.9¢
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 10.3¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?Lost
No$662 @ 65.6¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase October 6-12?Won
Yes$138 @ 70.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 12, 2026?Won
No$363 @ 79.4¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$197 @ 65.0¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?Lost
No$8 @ 3.8¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19?Won
No$649 @ 48.1¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19?Lost
Yes$78 @ 80.0¢
US government shutdown by October 1?Won
Yes$6.0k @ 86.7¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?Won
No$4.5k @ 69.2¢
Will Trump say "Board of Peace" during Saudi PM events on November 18?Lost
No$64 @ 86.6¢
Will Trump say "Azerbaijan" during C5+1 Summit on November 6?Lost
No$258 @ 62.0¢
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?Won
Yes$171 @ 76.4¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Won
No$1.1k @ 63.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$7.9k @ 87.7¢
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1?Won
No$47 @ 52.0¢
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Robinhood say "Football" during earnings call?Won
No$176 @ 34.8¢
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 740k+ BTC by February 28?Won
No$26 @ 85.0¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$867 @ 89.0¢
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin August 26-September 1?Won
No$5.4k @ 87.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 September 29-October 5?Lost
No$2.4k @ 68.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 September 29-October 5?Won
Yes$62 @ 89.2¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?Won
No$1.2k @ 68.3¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?Won
Yes$408 @ 80.9¢
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$104 @ 6.6¢
Odds of US strikes Iran in February over 50% by Feb 13?Lost
Yes$4 @ 10.6¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Won
No$1.3k @ 62.6¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Lost
Yes$307 @ 50.7¢
MicroStrategy purchases >4000 BTC August 26-September 1?Won
No$1.1k @ 88.1¢
Will Trump say "Biden" 3+ times at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21?Won
No$196 @ 67.0¢
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?Lost
ETH$251 @ 50.0¢
Will Trump say "Communist" or "Radical" 2+ times during the McDonald's Summit on November 17?Won
No$15 @ 57.0¢
Will Trump say "Globalist" or "Global" during WEF Address on January 21?Won
Yes$124 @ 81.1¢
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?Lost
No$12.9k @ 59.9¢
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?Won
Yes$8.0k @ 56.4¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?Won
No$8 @ 39.3¢
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$863 @ 85.5¢
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 73.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 23-29?Won
Yes$332 @ 81.0¢
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 83.8¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 November 2-8?	Crypto	No	$151	67.7¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	—	Down	$5	2.0¢

Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 November 2-8?Crypto
No$151 @ 67.7¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET—
Down$5 @ 2.0¢