← Smart money
0x5738…cbb7
SharpEdge
+4.5pp
ROI
+483%
Win rate
6% @ 1.4¢
Brier
0.055
Resolved
185
Avg size
$7
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 33% (2/6) | +1095% | 6 |
| Politics | 0% (0/4) | -100% | 4 |
- Other6 bets
- Hit rate
- 33% (2/6)
- ROI
- +1095%
- Politics4 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/4)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
20% hit · 2/10| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by August 31? | Yes | $3 | 5.0¢ | Lost |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? | Yes | $35 | 5.0¢ | Lost |
| European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? | Yes | $2 | 0.2¢ | Lost |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $100 | 1.0¢ | Lost |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | $297 | 2.0¢ | Lost |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Yes | $312 | 2.7¢ | Lost |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? | Yes | $400 | 2.0¢ | Lost |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | Yes | $200 | 3.4¢ | Won |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | $21 | 1.0¢ | Lost |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $100 | 5.0¢ | Won |
- Yes$3 @ 5.0¢
- Yes$35 @ 5.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
- Yes$100 @ 1.0¢
- Yes$297 @ 2.0¢
- Yes$312 @ 2.7¢
- Yes$400 @ 2.0¢
- Yes$200 @ 3.4¢
- No$21 @ 1.0¢
- Yes$100 @ 5.0¢
Recent trades
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Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31? | — | Yes | $71 | 3.7¢ |
| Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? | Politics | Yes | $36 | 4.0¢ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $35 | 5.0¢ |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | Politics | Yes | $35 | 5.0¢ |
- Yes$71 @ 3.7¢
- Yes$36 @ 4.0¢
- Yes$35 @ 5.0¢
- Yes$35 @ 5.0¢