0x56e7…7c0b

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Politics27 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (18/27)

  ROI

  +20%

• Other22 bets

  Hit rate

  45% (10/22)

  ROI

  +16%

• Culture17 bets

  Hit rate

  59% (10/17)

  ROI

  +67%

• Sports7 bets

  Hit rate

  71% (5/7)

  ROI

  -6%

• Geopolitics6 bets

  Hit rate

  33% (2/6)

  ROI

  -91%

• Business1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +8%

• US imports Russian diesel by October 31?Won
  No$5.2k @ 76.1¢
• Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$2.4k @ 92.4¢
• Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?Won
  Yes$732 @ 82.8¢
• Will "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?Won
  Yes$519 @ 96.7¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?Won
  Yes$8.2k @ 97.2¢
• Will "Digger" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 4m?Won
  Yes$140 @ 96.0¢
• NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
  No$946 @ 4.9¢
• Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?Won
  No$1.3k @ 87.9¢
• Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
  No$838 @ 89.4¢
• Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
  No$496 @ 85.0¢
• Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Lost
  Yes$271 @ 51.0¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
  No$1.8k @ 89.9¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
  No$73 @ 85.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
  Yes$1.3k @ 4.7¢
• Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 960m and 970m by September 30?Lost
  Yes$138 @ 2.9¢
• US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
  No$16.0k @ 86.3¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
  No$246 @ 67.9¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
  No$38.3k @ 85.6¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
  Yes$380 @ 10.0¢
• Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Won
  No$74 @ 3.7¢
• Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$292 @ 13.5¢
• Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?Won
  No$190 @ 55.5¢
• Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31?Lost
  No$604 @ 20.0¢
• Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31?Won
  Yes$2.5k @ 87.6¢
• UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)Won
  Sean OMalley$85 @ 85.0¢
• 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 14?Lost
  Yes$195 @ 5.9¢
• Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 940m by September 30?Lost
  Yes$461 @ 18.3¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Won
  No$2.2k @ 53.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?Won
  No$813 @ 82.6¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?Lost
  Yes$406 @ 18.0¢
• Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?Won
  No$803 @ 73.8¢
• Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$787 @ 52.5¢
• Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$5.7k @ 77.1¢
• Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano NapolitanoWon
  Daniel Rincon$16 @ 82.0¢
• Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Lost
  Yes$135 @ 26.7¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Won
  No$28.7k @ 65.0¢
• Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas FaurelWon
  Gerard Campana Lee$78 @ 78.0¢
• Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia RisticLost
  Mia Ristic$36 @ 71.0¢
• Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$11.8k @ 60.4¢
• Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$2.6k @ 50.2¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Won
  No$10.4k @ 77.7¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Lost
  Yes$4.2k @ 29.6¢
• Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2Lost
  BIG$41 @ 51.5¢
• Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?Lost
  No$311 @ 68.8¢
• Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?Lost
  Yes$358 @ 87.9¢
• Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?Lost
  Yes$219 @ 17.2¢
• UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)Lost
  Ilia Topuria$142 @ 71.0¢
• U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Won
  No$7.0k @ 42.5¢
• Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
  Yes$1.4k @ 89.6¢
• Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 700m and 800m by August 31?Lost
  Yes$18 @ 0.1¢

Current positions

• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$12.8k @ 85.0¢
• Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?Culture
  Yes$4.8k @ 96.9¢
• Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?Culture
  Yes$3.8k @ 18.2¢
• Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?Science
  Yes$3.2k @ 85.1¢
• Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 970m by October 31?Culture
  Yes$2.7k @ 95.9¢
• US imports Russian diesel by November 2?Politics
  No$2.1k @ 88.5¢
• Will at least 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$386 @ 95.9¢
• Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$250 @ 97.0¢
• Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $75M and $100M by November 30?Culture
  Yes$130 @ 57.9¢
• Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$130 @ 96.2¢
• Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$65 @ 97.7¢