0x54c0…eafc

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x54c0fc9027cf8ceb6c90880e8182560bb58feafc
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.6pp

ROI

+19%

Win rate

57% @ 47.3¢

Brier

0.190

Resolved

767

Avg size

$24

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	58% (61/105)	+34%	105
Politics	44% (18/41)	-4%	41
Sports	17% (1/6)	-88%	6
Geopolitics	40% (2/5)	-31%	5
Crypto	60% (3/5)	+93%	5

Other105 bets
Hit rate
58% (61/105)
ROI
+34%
Politics41 bets
Hit rate
44% (18/41)
ROI
-4%
Sports6 bets
Hit rate
17% (1/6)
ROI
-88%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
-31%
Crypto5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
+93%

Track record

52% hit · 85/162

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$4	42.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$255	51.7¢	Won
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	Yes	$39	88.9¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	$3	7.0¢	Lost
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$26	83.1¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$4	89.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	Yes	$6	8.0¢	Lost
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	$1	24.0¢	Won
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	$2	77.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$4	41.2¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$96	57.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$472	25.3¢	Lost
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	No	$12	85.5¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?	Yes	$5	8.8¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	Yes	$17	77.4¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	No	$1	36.0¢	Lost
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	No	$10	78.6¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$1.5k	21.8¢	Lost
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?	No	$9	85.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$57	20.2¢	Lost
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?	Yes	$1	86.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$188	72.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$34	16.0¢	Lost
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?	No	$7	88.7¢	Won
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	No	$7	34.0¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	Yes	$93	71.1¢	Won
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?	No	$6	7.3¢	Won
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?	Yes	$1	47.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	Yes	$30	9.3¢	Lost
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?	No	$10	78.3¢	Won
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?	Yes	$8	26.2¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$836	82.1¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$94	1.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	No	$10	87.9¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	Yes	$2	13.1¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$112	15.6¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$805	54.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$56	7.8¢	Lost
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?	No	$5	11.8¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	No	$89	67.8¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	Yes	$113	31.4¢	Lost
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$355	90.0¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	$65	4.6¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$290	69.9¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$358	13.5¢	Won
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$142	7.9¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$414	35.5¢	Lost
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?	Yes	$6	83.6¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?	Yes	$27	24.6¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?	Yes	$23	16.0¢	Lost

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
Yes$4 @ 42.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$255 @ 51.7¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Won
Yes$39 @ 88.9¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 7.0¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
No$26 @ 83.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$4 @ 89.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Lost
Yes$6 @ 8.0¢
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Won
Yes$1 @ 24.0¢
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Lost
Yes$2 @ 77.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 41.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$96 @ 57.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$472 @ 25.3¢
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$12 @ 85.5¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?Lost
Yes$5 @ 8.8¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Won
Yes$17 @ 77.4¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Lost
No$1 @ 36.0¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$10 @ 78.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 21.8¢
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?Lost
No$9 @ 85.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$57 @ 20.2¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?Won
Yes$1 @ 86.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$188 @ 72.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$34 @ 16.0¢
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$7 @ 88.7¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Lost
No$7 @ 34.0¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Won
Yes$93 @ 71.1¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?Won
No$6 @ 7.3¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?Won
Yes$1 @ 47.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Lost
Yes$30 @ 9.3¢
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?Won
No$10 @ 78.3¢
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?Lost
Yes$8 @ 26.2¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$836 @ 82.1¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$94 @ 1.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 14?Won
No$10 @ 87.9¢
US forces enter Iran by March 14?Lost
Yes$2 @ 13.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$112 @ 15.6¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$805 @ 54.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$56 @ 7.8¢
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?Lost
No$5 @ 11.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Won
No$89 @ 67.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Lost
Yes$113 @ 31.4¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$355 @ 90.0¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Lost
Yes$65 @ 4.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$290 @ 69.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$358 @ 13.5¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$142 @ 7.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$414 @ 35.5¢
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?Won
Yes$6 @ 83.6¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?Lost
Yes$27 @ 24.6¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?Lost
Yes$23 @ 16.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$33	78.1¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$23	24.9¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$15	64.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$5	31.6¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$4	72.0¢
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$3	91.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$0	8.0¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$33 @ 78.1¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$23 @ 24.9¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$15 @ 64.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$5 @ 31.6¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$4 @ 72.0¢
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$3 @ 91.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$0 @ 8.0¢