0x524d…4495

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x524db836890e08aceb3abcdee98d44240e324495
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.8pp

ROI

+30%

Win rate

29% @ 16.2¢

Brier

0.169

Resolved

1718

Avg size

$157

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	5% (15/303)	-54%	303
Politics	24% (50/212)	+3%	212
Sports	7% (4/59)	+38%	59
Tech	24% (4/17)	-2%	17
Geopolitics	77% (10/13)	+62%	13
Culture	100% (1/1)	+50%	1
Business	100% (1/1)	+190%	1

Other303 bets
Hit rate
5% (15/303)
ROI
-54%
Politics212 bets
Hit rate
24% (50/212)
ROI
+3%
Sports59 bets
Hit rate
7% (4/59)
ROI
+38%
Tech17 bets
Hit rate
24% (4/17)
ROI
-2%
Geopolitics13 bets
Hit rate
77% (10/13)
ROI
+62%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+50%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+190%

Track record

14% hit · 85/606

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	No	$5	32.0¢	Lost
Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?	Yes	$6.9k	58.1¢	Lost
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	No	$3.8k	61.5¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	No	$1.2k	10.0¢	Lost
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$1.6k	9.8¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	$5.4k	81.6¢	Won
Will the Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat?	Yes	$3.3k	47.0¢	Lost
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$271	17.5¢	Lost
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$3.7k	63.9¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?	Yes	$1.2k	85.0¢	Won
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?	No	$104	5.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?	Yes	$573	29.8¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	Yes	$89	2.2¢	Lost
Will Julian Alvarez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$0	0.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	Yes	$102	2.8¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	Yes	$102	2.8¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$0	4.2¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	$35	3.8¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	Yes	$102	2.8¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?	Yes	$239	5.4¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?	Yes	$276	6.6¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?	Yes	$140	2.9¢	Lost
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 15?	Yes	$68	2.4¢	Lost
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?	No	$2.9k	33.1¢	Lost
Will Desire Doue win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$0	0.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	$35	3.8¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	Yes	$118	4.8¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	$995	38.2¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?	Yes	$185	7.7¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	No	$1.9k	54.4¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$0	4.2¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	Yes	$102	2.8¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?	Yes	$49	1.4¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	Yes	$23	0.9¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?	Yes	$2.3k	43.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	$97	3.4¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 29 to August 31, 2026?	Yes	$76	2.7¢	Lost
Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$0	0.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	$2.0k	45.6¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$0	4.2¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	$236	2.9¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	$35	3.8¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	Yes	$149	4.2¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	Yes	$207	0.3¢	Lost

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?Lost
No$5 @ 32.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?Lost
Yes$6.9k @ 58.1¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?Lost
No$3.8k @ 61.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Lost
No$1.2k @ 10.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Lost
Yes$1.6k @ 9.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?Won
Yes$5.4k @ 81.6¢
Will the Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat?Lost
Yes$3.3k @ 47.0¢
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?Lost
Yes$271 @ 17.5¢
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?Lost
Yes$3.7k @ 63.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 85.0¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$104 @ 5.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?Lost
Yes$573 @ 29.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?Lost
Yes$89 @ 2.2¢
Will Julian Alvarez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$102 @ 2.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$102 @ 2.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 4.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$35 @ 3.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$102 @ 2.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?Lost
Yes$239 @ 5.4¢
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?Lost
Yes$276 @ 6.6¢
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$140 @ 2.9¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 15?Lost
Yes$68 @ 2.4¢
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?Lost
No$2.9k @ 33.1¢
Will Desire Doue win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$35 @ 3.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?Lost
Yes$118 @ 4.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$995 @ 38.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?Lost
Yes$185 @ 7.7¢
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?Lost
No$1.9k @ 54.4¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 4.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$102 @ 2.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$49 @ 1.4¢
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?Lost
Yes$23 @ 0.9¢
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.3k @ 43.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?Lost
Yes$97 @ 3.4¢
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 29 to August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$76 @ 2.7¢
Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.0k @ 45.6¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 4.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?Lost
Yes$236 @ 2.9¢
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$35 @ 3.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?Lost
Yes$149 @ 4.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?Lost
Yes$207 @ 0.3¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$12.9k	18.8¢
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 15, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$11.9k	59.6¢
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$11.4k	83.0¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?	—	No	$7.3k	50.1¢
LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?	—	No	$7.2k	51.9¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$7.0k	31.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Geopolitics	Yes	$7.0k	72.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	—	Yes	$6.7k	47.2¢
Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	Sports	Yamal	$6.5k	50.2¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$5.8k	51.1¢
No one announced as next James Bond?	Culture	Yes	$5.2k	20.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	—	Yes	$5.1k	22.2¢
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$4.8k	28.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Politics	Yes	$4.8k	40.2¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	Politics	No	$4.2k	24.7¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$4.2k	16.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Politics	Yes	$4.0k	52.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Politics	Yes	$3.7k	86.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30?	Politics	No	$3.5k	46.7¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?	Politics	Yes	$3.5k	39.8¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Business	No	$3.4k	17.5¢
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Sports	No	$3.4k	32.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$3.3k	47.0¢
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	—	No	$3.2k	26.4¢
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	—	Yes	$3.2k	7.7¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 27, 2026?	Tech	No	$3.2k	24.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	—	No	$3.1k	44.9¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	No	$3.1k	52.0¢
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?	Politics	No	$2.9k	33.1¢
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$2.9k	3.2¢

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$12.9k @ 18.8¢
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 15, 2026?Politics
Yes$11.9k @ 59.6¢
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?Politics
Yes$11.4k @ 83.0¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?—
No$7.3k @ 50.1¢
LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?—
No$7.2k @ 51.9¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$7.0k @ 31.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?Geopolitics
Yes$7.0k @ 72.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?—
Yes$6.7k @ 47.2¢
Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?Sports
Yamal$6.5k @ 50.2¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$5.8k @ 51.1¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Culture
Yes$5.2k @ 20.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?—
Yes$5.1k @ 22.2¢
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$4.8k @ 28.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?Politics
Yes$4.8k @ 40.2¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?Politics
No$4.2k @ 24.7¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$4.2k @ 16.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Politics
Yes$4.0k @ 52.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?Politics
Yes$3.7k @ 86.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30?Politics
No$3.5k @ 46.7¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?Politics
Yes$3.5k @ 39.8¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
No$3.4k @ 17.5¢
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?Sports
No$3.4k @ 32.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat?Politics
Yes$3.3k @ 47.0¢
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?—
No$3.2k @ 26.4¢
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?—
Yes$3.2k @ 7.7¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 27, 2026?Tech
No$3.2k @ 24.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?—
No$3.1k @ 44.9¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
No$3.1k @ 52.0¢
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?Politics
No$2.9k @ 33.1¢
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$2.9k @ 3.2¢