0x51b1…7865

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x51b11a18e75d0f4c3f8e8e360f89eb911d727865
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.4pp

ROI

+20%

Win rate

29% @ 24.7¢

Brier

0.101

Resolved

2342

Avg size

$25

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	35% (94/269)	+21%	269
Culture	37% (20/54)	+1%	54
Politics	38% (16/42)	+20%	42
Sports	50% (18/36)	+50%	36
Science	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Geopolitics	67% (2/3)	+58%	3
Crypto	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Tech	50% (1/2)	+30%	2
Economy	100% (1/1)	+337%	1
Business	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other269 bets
Hit rate
35% (94/269)
ROI
+21%
Culture54 bets
Hit rate
37% (20/54)
ROI
+1%
Politics42 bets
Hit rate
38% (16/42)
ROI
+20%
Sports36 bets
Hit rate
50% (18/36)
ROI
+50%
Science3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+58%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+30%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+337%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

37% hit · 152/414

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Catherine O'Hara win Best Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?	Yes	$17	43.4¢	Won
Will Olivia Rodrigo have 1 song in Billboard top 10 for week of June 27?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition	No	$10	0.1¢	Lost
Will “Swim” by BTS win Song of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	No	$83	45.3¢	Lost
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will Drew Campbell win Big Brother season 28?	Yes	$3	42.5¢	Lost
Will Player 172 win Beast Games: Season 2?	Yes	$8	0.4¢	Lost
Will Francis Ellis win the 2025 Internet Invitational?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?	No	$70	7.0¢	Lost
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	$63	45.0¢	Won
Will Ariana Grande win Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	No	$224	70.2¢	Won
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?	No	$112	70.0¢	Won
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines	Arizona Wildcats	$4	0.1¢	Lost
Will Beef win the 2025 Internet Invitational?	No	$69	2.7¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?	Yes	$10	10.0¢	Lost
Will “Dai Dai” by Shakira and Burna Boy win Best Collaboration at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	Yes	$3	13.0¢	Lost
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30?	No	$2	42.0¢	Lost
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	No	$4	4.0¢	Lost
Will Trump make no announcement by December 31 to replace Lisa Cook?	No	$17	1.2¢	Lost
Will USA make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final?	No	$48	8.0¢	Lost
Will Walmart say "Omnichannel" during earnings call?	No	$25	2.5¢	Lost
Will Cristopher Sánchez strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Yes	$10	8.0¢	Lost
Will Duke Rodriguez win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$3	21.0¢	Lost
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	No	$401	39.7¢	Lost
Will Phantom daily builder revenue hit $300k in 2025?	Yes	$38	19.0¢	Lost
Will June 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Mike Evans reach 1,000 receiving yards this season?	No	$3	56.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast say "Subscribe" or "Subscribers" during his next video?	No	$103	26.7¢	Lost
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?	Yes	$89	37.8¢	Won
Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?	No	$1.4k	16.9¢	Lost
Will DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS by Bad Bunny be the top Spotify album for 2025?	No	$35	7.7¢	Lost
Will Victor Wembanyama be on the cover of NBA 2K27?	No	$1	14.0¢	Lost
Will EA say "Competition" during earnings call?	Yes	$5	0.5¢	Lost
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	$7	16.4¢	Lost
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?	No	$59	42.0¢	Lost
Will President Trump sign 5 pieces of legislation into law in March?	No	$296	78.0¢	Won
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	$105	20.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Nuclear" while addressing the nation on December 17?	Yes	$44	54.3¢	Won
Will the Buccaneers win the NFC South?	No	$5	45.0¢	Lost
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Yes	$1	14.0¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 42.0 and 42.4 on November 28, 2025?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will it Snow in Philadelphia this December?	Yes	$105	86.4¢	Won
Will Geno Ploeger win AGT Season 21?	Yes	$6	4.0¢	Lost
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	No	$57	0.3¢	Lost
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	$240	0.1¢	Lost
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?	No	$100	73.3¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$27	20.0¢	Lost
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?	Yes	$14	38.0¢	Won
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the AFC North?	Yes	$3	56.0¢	Won
Will Player 99 win Beast Games: Season 2?	Yes	$8	0.4¢	Lost

Will Catherine O'Hara win Best Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?Won
Yes$17 @ 43.4¢
Will Olivia Rodrigo have 1 song in Billboard top 10 for week of June 27?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Nothing Ever Happens: AI EditionLost
No$10 @ 0.1¢
Will “Swim” by BTS win Song of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?Lost
No$83 @ 45.3¢
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after December 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will Drew Campbell win Big Brother season 28?Lost
Yes$3 @ 42.5¢
Will Player 172 win Beast Games: Season 2?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.4¢
Will Francis Ellis win the 2025 Internet Invitational?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?Lost
No$70 @ 7.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Won
Yes$63 @ 45.0¢
Will Ariana Grande win Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?Won
No$224 @ 70.2¢
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?Won
No$112 @ 70.0¢
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan WolverinesLost
Arizona Wildcats$4 @ 0.1¢
Will Beef win the 2025 Internet Invitational?Lost
No$69 @ 2.7¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?Lost
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
Will “Dai Dai” by Shakira and Burna Boy win Best Collaboration at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?Lost
Yes$3 @ 13.0¢
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30?Lost
No$2 @ 42.0¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?Lost
No$4 @ 4.0¢
Will Trump make no announcement by December 31 to replace Lisa Cook?Lost
No$17 @ 1.2¢
Will USA make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final?Lost
No$48 @ 8.0¢
Will Walmart say "Omnichannel" during earnings call?Lost
No$25 @ 2.5¢
Will Cristopher Sánchez strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season?Lost
Yes$10 @ 8.0¢
Will Duke Rodriguez win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?Lost
Yes$3 @ 21.0¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$401 @ 39.7¢
Will Phantom daily builder revenue hit $300k in 2025?Lost
Yes$38 @ 19.0¢
Will June 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Mike Evans reach 1,000 receiving yards this season?Lost
No$3 @ 56.0¢
Will MrBeast say "Subscribe" or "Subscribers" during his next video?Lost
No$103 @ 26.7¢
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?Won
Yes$89 @ 37.8¢
Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?Lost
No$1.4k @ 16.9¢
Will DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS by Bad Bunny be the top Spotify album for 2025?Lost
No$35 @ 7.7¢
Will Victor Wembanyama be on the cover of NBA 2K27?Lost
No$1 @ 14.0¢
Will EA say "Competition" during earnings call?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.5¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Lost
Yes$7 @ 16.4¢
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?Lost
No$59 @ 42.0¢
Will President Trump sign 5 pieces of legislation into law in March?Won
No$296 @ 78.0¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Lost
No$105 @ 20.0¢
Will Trump say "Nuclear" while addressing the nation on December 17?Won
Yes$44 @ 54.3¢
Will the Buccaneers win the NFC South?Lost
No$5 @ 45.0¢
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 14.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 42.0 and 42.4 on November 28, 2025?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will it Snow in Philadelphia this December?Won
Yes$105 @ 86.4¢
Will Geno Ploeger win AGT Season 21?Lost
Yes$6 @ 4.0¢
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?Lost
No$57 @ 0.3¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$240 @ 0.1¢
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?Lost
No$100 @ 73.3¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$27 @ 20.0¢
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?Won
Yes$14 @ 38.0¢
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the AFC North?Won
Yes$3 @ 56.0¢
Will Player 99 win Beast Games: Season 2?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Politics	No	$1.9k	22.7¢
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Sports	Yes	$722	80.1¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Politics	No	$623	70.5¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	No	$601	54.6¢
Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?	Sports	Yes	$561	80.2¢
Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$323	80.3¢
Rippling IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$255	61.0¢
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026?	Culture	No	$249	64.3¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$247	39.3¢
Anduril IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$220	65.4¢
Databricks IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$216	54.4¢
Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?	Politics	No	$155	44.5¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Tech	Yes	$151	36.9¢
Glean IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$149	78.0¢
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$130	28.5¢
Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Sports	No	$126	50.0¢
Will Ashton Jeanty have 5.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Sports	No	$125	40.9¢
Will Frank Ocean release an album in 2026?	Culture	No	$114	77.6¢
Will Florida's "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" referendum pass in November 2026?	Politics	Yes	$111	43.2¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?	Politics	No	$99	80.0¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$94	38.3¢
Will Andy Beshear be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?	Politics	No	$90	67.0¢
Will The Weeknd have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Culture	No	$88	55.5¢
Will Tyler, The Creator have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Culture	No	$77	82.0¢
Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?	Politics	No	$68	57.5¢
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$65	17.0¢
Vanta IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$65	81.0¢
Celonis IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$62	52.3¢
Will Oklahoma have more than 6.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	Sports	Yes	$62	65.0¢
Will Florida State have more than 6.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	Sports	No	$54	61.0¢

Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Politics
No$1.9k @ 22.7¢
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Sports
Yes$722 @ 80.1¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Politics
No$623 @ 70.5¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
No$601 @ 54.6¢
Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?Sports
Yes$561 @ 80.2¢
Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?Business
No$323 @ 80.3¢
Rippling IPO before 2027?Business
No$255 @ 61.0¢
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026?Culture
No$249 @ 64.3¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?Politics
Yes$247 @ 39.3¢
Anduril IPO before 2027?Business
No$220 @ 65.4¢
Databricks IPO before 2027?Business
No$216 @ 54.4¢
Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?Politics
No$155 @ 44.5¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
Yes$151 @ 36.9¢
Glean IPO before 2027?Business
No$149 @ 78.0¢
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?Politics
Yes$130 @ 28.5¢
Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Sports
No$126 @ 50.0¢
Will Ashton Jeanty have 5.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?Sports
No$125 @ 40.9¢
Will Frank Ocean release an album in 2026?Culture
No$114 @ 77.6¢
Will Florida's "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" referendum pass in November 2026?Politics
Yes$111 @ 43.2¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?Politics
No$99 @ 80.0¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$94 @ 38.3¢
Will Andy Beshear be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?Politics
No$90 @ 67.0¢
Will The Weeknd have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?Culture
No$88 @ 55.5¢
Will Tyler, The Creator have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?Culture
No$77 @ 82.0¢
Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?Politics
No$68 @ 57.5¢
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$65 @ 17.0¢
Vanta IPO before 2027?Business
No$65 @ 81.0¢
Celonis IPO before 2027?Business
No$62 @ 52.3¢
Will Oklahoma have more than 6.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?Sports
Yes$62 @ 65.0¢
Will Florida State have more than 6.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?Sports
No$54 @ 61.0¢