0x4fe2…87c5

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4fe26282f10c7903a1af09fa376af8d885ba87c5
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.0pp

ROI

+13%

Win rate

66% @ 58.0¢

Brier

0.159

Resolved

2623

Avg size

$73

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	62% (212/344)	+13%	344
Crypto	78% (7/9)	+42%	9
Geopolitics	67% (2/3)	-43%	3
Politics	50% (1/2)	+4%	2

Other344 bets
Hit rate
62% (212/344)
ROI
+13%
Crypto9 bets
Hit rate
78% (7/9)
ROI
+42%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-43%
Politics2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+4%

Track record

62% hit · 222/358

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28?	Yes	$0	0.6¢	Lost
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?	No	$2	1.6¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by February 28, 2025?	No	$769	82.8¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?	No	$230	86.0¢	Lost
Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 14-21?	Yes	$93	69.5¢	Won
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be less than 47.5% on February 28?	No	$55	83.0¢	Won
Ethereum all time high before October?	No	$2.3k	59.3¢	Lost
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025	Yes	$243	85.0¢	Won
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	No	$477	84.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September?	No	$789	76.2¢	Won
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?	No	$339	81.8¢	Won
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in August?	No	$112	60.2¢	Lost
Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration?	No	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration?	Yes	$59	87.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 44-45°F on February 24?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will China's monthly inflation increase by ≤0.0% in December?	No	$160	86.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August?	No	$180	63.0¢	Won
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $121 Week of April 6 2026?	Yes	$15	4.0¢	Lost
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$153	82.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	$280	41.2¢	Won
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $430 - 435b on February 28?	Yes	$1	1.5¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$291	82.1¢	Won
Will Donald Trump Jr. be a member of the Trump administration?	Yes	$2	3.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	$1.0k	88.2¢	Won
Trump imposes 100% tariff on China before July?	Yes	$77	60.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31?	Yes	$41	22.0¢	Lost
Will 52 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?	No	$63	60.3¢	Lost
Will 52 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?	Yes	$133	40.1¢	Won
Trump positive approval on April 1?	Yes	$0	0.6¢	Lost
Will Solana reach $270 in September?	No	$1.5k	73.7¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?	No	$2.8k	70.2¢	Won
Will XRP reach $3.7 in July?	No	$221	83.0¢	Won
Will Ethereum reach $3900 in July?	No	$86	46.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 39-40°F on March 8?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting?	Yes	$20	2.7¢	Lost
Ethereum all time high before 2026?	No	$4.1k	52.1¢	Lost
Ethereum all time high before 2026?	Yes	$15	49.0¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	No	$352	89.0¢	Won
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?	Yes	$62	6.9¢	Lost
Seven Trump Cabinet confirmations in January?	No	$236	88.0¢	Won
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?	No	$1.3k	80.9¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	Yes	$313	85.0¢	Won
Bitcoin all time high by June 30?	No	$190	9.4¢	Lost
Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI?	No	$1	1.2¢	Lost
Will Trump impose tariffs on China in the first 100 days?	No	$2	1.6¢	Lost
Solana above $175 on February 28?	No	$535	88.6¢	Won
Will the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) close above 5750 on the final trading day of Q1 2026?	Yes	$29	9.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin more valuable than any company in 2025?	No	$432	83.5¢	Won
Bitcoin more valuable than any company in 2025?	Yes	$147	19.5¢	Lost
Will the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) close above 6000 on the final trading day of Q1 2026?	Yes	$44	6.8¢	Lost

Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.6¢
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?Lost
No$2 @ 1.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by February 28, 2025?Won
No$769 @ 82.8¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?Lost
No$230 @ 86.0¢
Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 14-21?Won
Yes$93 @ 69.5¢
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be less than 47.5% on February 28?Won
No$55 @ 83.0¢
Ethereum all time high before October?Lost
No$2.3k @ 59.3¢
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025Won
Yes$243 @ 85.0¢
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Won
No$477 @ 84.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September?Won
No$789 @ 76.2¢
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?Won
No$339 @ 81.8¢
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in August?Lost
No$112 @ 60.2¢
Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? Lost
No$1 @ 1.0¢
Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? Won
Yes$59 @ 87.0¢
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 44-45°F on February 24?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will China's monthly inflation increase by ≤0.0% in December?Won
No$160 @ 86.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August?Won
No$180 @ 63.0¢
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $121 Week of April 6 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 4.0¢
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
Yes$153 @ 82.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?Won
No$280 @ 41.2¢
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $430 - 435b on February 28?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.5¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$291 @ 82.1¢
Will Donald Trump Jr. be a member of the Trump administration? Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025?Won
No$1.0k @ 88.2¢
Trump imposes 100% tariff on China before July?Won
Yes$77 @ 60.0¢
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31?Lost
Yes$41 @ 22.0¢
Will 52 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?Lost
No$63 @ 60.3¢
Will 52 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?Won
Yes$133 @ 40.1¢
Trump positive approval on April 1?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.6¢
Will Solana reach $270 in September?Won
No$1.5k @ 73.7¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?Won
No$2.8k @ 70.2¢
Will XRP reach $3.7 in July?Won
No$221 @ 83.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $3900 in July?Lost
No$86 @ 46.0¢
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 39-40°F on March 8?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$20 @ 2.7¢
Ethereum all time high before 2026?Lost
No$4.1k @ 52.1¢
Ethereum all time high before 2026?Won
Yes$15 @ 49.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Won
No$352 @ 89.0¢
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Lost
Yes$62 @ 6.9¢
Seven Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Won
No$236 @ 88.0¢
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?Won
No$1.3k @ 80.9¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Won
Yes$313 @ 85.0¢
Bitcoin all time high by June 30?Lost
No$190 @ 9.4¢
Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI?Lost
No$1 @ 1.2¢
Will Trump impose tariffs on China in the first 100 days?Lost
No$2 @ 1.6¢
Solana above $175 on February 28?Won
No$535 @ 88.6¢
Will the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) close above 5750 on the final trading day of Q1 2026?Lost
Yes$29 @ 9.0¢
Bitcoin more valuable than any company in 2025?Won
No$432 @ 83.5¢
Bitcoin more valuable than any company in 2025?Lost
Yes$147 @ 19.5¢
Will the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) close above 6000 on the final trading day of Q1 2026?Lost
Yes$44 @ 6.8¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US recession by end of 2026?	Economy	No	$10.0k	75.9¢
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	Crypto	No	$1.8k	74.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$1.8k	84.9¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$1.6k	91.7¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$1.6k	73.7¢
Will the Republicans win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	97.0¢
Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	94.3¢
Will the Republicans win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$990	97.0¢
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$899	91.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$895	93.6¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Economy	Yes	$891	96.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$852	91.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$831	74.2¢
Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$738	95.1¢
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$726	94.5¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$723	73.6¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$706	89.5¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,300 in September?	Crypto	No	$642	98.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$621	92.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$618	55.8¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$613	43.4¢
Will the Democrats win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$568	96.9¢
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$561	83.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$549	97.0¢
Will Brian Bengs win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$539	95.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$532	94.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$515	91.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$424	71.6¢
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$403	54.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$372	95.9¢

US recession by end of 2026?Economy
No$10.0k @ 75.9¢
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?Crypto
No$1.8k @ 74.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$1.8k @ 84.9¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$1.6k @ 91.7¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$1.6k @ 73.7¢
Will the Republicans win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 97.0¢
Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 94.3¢
Will the Republicans win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$990 @ 97.0¢
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Economy
Yes$899 @ 91.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$895 @ 93.6¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?Economy
Yes$891 @ 96.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$852 @ 91.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$831 @ 74.2¢
Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$738 @ 95.1¢
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$726 @ 94.5¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$723 @ 73.6¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
No$706 @ 89.5¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,300 in September?Crypto
No$642 @ 98.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$621 @ 92.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$618 @ 55.8¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$613 @ 43.4¢
Will the Democrats win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$568 @ 96.9¢
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$561 @ 83.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$549 @ 97.0¢
Will Brian Bengs win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$539 @ 95.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$532 @ 94.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$515 @ 91.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$424 @ 71.6¢
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$403 @ 54.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$372 @ 95.9¢