← Smart money
0x4fad…d264
SharpEdge
+4.4pp
ROI
+22%
Win rate
46% @ 42.0¢
Brier
0.140
Resolved
1073
Avg size
$21
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 33% (139/419) | +6% | 419 |
| Sports | 50% (71/141) | +8% | 141 |
| Politics | 61% (14/23) | +24% | 23 |
| Geopolitics | 83% (5/6) | +27% | 6 |
| Economy | 60% (3/5) | +20% | 5 |
| Culture | 67% (2/3) | -3% | 3 |
| Tech | 50% (1/2) | +15% | 2 |
| Crypto | 100% (1/1) | +17% | 1 |
- Other419 bets
- Hit rate
- 33% (139/419)
- ROI
- +6%
- Sports141 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (71/141)
- ROI
- +8%
- Politics23 bets
- Hit rate
- 61% (14/23)
- ROI
- +24%
- Geopolitics6 bets
- Hit rate
- 83% (5/6)
- ROI
- +27%
- Economy5 bets
- Hit rate
- 60% (3/5)
- ROI
- +20%
- Culture3 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (2/3)
- ROI
- -3%
- Tech2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- +15%
- Crypto1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +17%
Track record
39% hit · 236/600- Up$8 @ 56.0¢
- Up$1 @ 10.0¢
- Down$19 @ 77.0¢
- Down$1 @ 12.0¢
- Yes$7 @ 69.4¢
- Up$23 @ 83.4¢
- Up$1 @ 24.0¢
- Down$1 @ 13.0¢
- Down$24 @ 81.9¢
- Up$8 @ 71.0¢
- Down$1 @ 30.0¢
- Down$1 @ 34.0¢
- Down$22 @ 75.0¢
- No$30 @ 93.2¢
- Up$8 @ 52.0¢
- Over$2 @ 45.0¢
- Up$1 @ 31.0¢
- Down$1 @ 25.0¢
- Down$14 @ 55.9¢
- Team Spirit$2 @ 2.1¢
- Up$40 @ 77.0¢
- Over$5 @ 31.0¢
- Up$1 @ 32.0¢
- Down$34 @ 86.0¢
- Up$1 @ 16.0¢
- Under$2 @ 56.0¢
- Team Yandex$10 @ 12.0¢
- BoomBoys$30 @ 58.0¢
- Under$2 @ 69.0¢
- Team Yandex$10 @ 68.0¢
- Team Falcons$10 @ 63.0¢
- Team Resilience$5 @ 10.6¢
- Aurora$10 @ 60.0¢
- Xtreme Gaming$10 @ 86.0¢
- Team Spirit$12 @ 13.8¢
- Team Resilience$15 @ 63.3¢
- Yes$8 @ 35.9¢
- Over$2 @ 55.0¢
- Yes$577 @ 88.3¢
- Yes$9 @ 46.8¢
- No$314 @ 93.6¢
- Yes$3 @ 65.0¢
- Yes$70 @ 73.5¢
- Yes$1 @ 0.9¢
- Yes$213 @ 47.7¢
- Over$5 @ 61.0¢
- Over$5 @ 69.5¢
- Yes$2 @ 9.0¢
- Over$5 @ 78.0¢
- Over$5 @ 62.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?GeopoliticsNo$1000 @ 97.7¢
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?GeopoliticsNo$640 @ 88.9¢
- Yes$577 @ 88.3¢
- Yes$464 @ 66.7¢
- No$314 @ 93.6¢
- No$303 @ 32.2¢
- Yes$300 @ 94.7¢
- Yes$300 @ 74.7¢
- Yes$213 @ 47.7¢
- No$200 @ 85.8¢
- Yes$131 @ 81.6¢
- Yes$118 @ 32.3¢
- No$114 @ 11.9¢
- No$100 @ 75.0¢
- No$100 @ 93.0¢
- No$100 @ 82.0¢
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?PoliticsNo$100 @ 46.0¢
- Under$90 @ 88.0¢
- No$90 @ 60.5¢
- Yes$70 @ 73.5¢
- No$66 @ 41.3¢
- Over$66 @ 69.0¢
- Over$66 @ 54.0¢
- Under$54 @ 81.0¢
- No$50 @ 40.0¢
- Yes$50 @ 53.2¢
- Yes$50 @ 34.1¢
- No$50 @ 75.2¢
- Spread: Germany (-4.5)SportsCuraçao$50 @ 69.0¢
- Yes$50 @ 53.0¢