0x4fad…d264

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4fad5916f72e19d8461a65135a46f02e2439d264
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.9pp

ROI

+24%

Win rate

63% @ 54.9¢

Brier

0.152

Resolved

522

Avg size

$25

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	54% (74/136)	+30%	136
Sports	53% (67/127)	+10%	127
Politics	56% (5/9)	+26%	9
Geopolitics	80% (4/5)	+29%	5
Economy	60% (3/5)	+20%	5
Tech	50% (1/2)	+15%	2
Culture	100% (2/2)	+14%	2
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+17%	1

Other136 bets
Hit rate
54% (74/136)
ROI
+30%
Sports127 bets
Hit rate
53% (67/127)
ROI
+10%
Politics9 bets
Hit rate
56% (5/9)
ROI
+26%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
80% (4/5)
ROI
+29%
Economy5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
+20%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+15%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+14%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+17%

Track record

55% hit · 157/287

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	No	$2	4.5¢	Lost
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Yes	$100	89.1¢	Won
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$5	28.0¢	Lost
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	No	$10	29.0¢	Lost
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$38	1.9¢	Lost
Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$50	62.6¢	Won
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?	Yes	$51	34.1¢	Lost
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Switzerland?	Yes	$2	2.4¢	Lost
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Uzbekistan	$5	32.0¢	Lost
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	Over	$5	24.0¢	Lost
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance	Argentina	$35	75.7¢	Won
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Over	$7	60.0¢	Lost
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Over	$5	44.0¢	Lost
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$10	84.0¢	Won
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	$50	68.4¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$151	21.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 12?	Yes	$6	0.6¢	Lost
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Algeria?	Yes	$7	38.3¢	Won
Will England win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	$51	53.0¢	Lost
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5	Under	$5	44.0¢	Lost
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	$10	43.0¢	Lost
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	$11	47.7¢	Lost
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	$31	26.0¢	Lost
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	Yes	$5	29.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Switzerland?	Yes	$2	15.0¢	Lost
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$10	58.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	No	$40	84.4¢	Lost
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$10	44.0¢	Won
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)	Argentina	$5	72.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$10	73.0¢	Won
Spread: France (-1.5)	France	$5	59.0¢	Lost
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance	Morocco	$10	51.5¢	Won
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$10	71.0¢	Won
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Argentina	$5	36.0¢	Won
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner	Aurora	$41	44.3¢	Won
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	$455	78.8¢	Won
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	$48	29.3¢	Lost
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Over	$2	50.7¢	Lost
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$10	76.0¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	$31	40.7¢	Lost
Canada vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Over	$10	39.0¢	Won
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$10	62.1¢	Won
Spread: United States (-2.5)	Australia	$5	51.0¢	Won
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	$10	15.4¢	Lost
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5	Over	$2	17.0¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	No	$300	70.7¢	Won
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	Over	$5	23.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$5	64.0¢	Won
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$10	64.0¢	Won
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?	Yes	$10	20.4¢	Lost

World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?Lost
No$2 @ 4.5¢
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?Won
Yes$100 @ 89.1¢
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$5 @ 28.0¢
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Lost
No$10 @ 29.0¢
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$38 @ 1.9¢
Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?Won
Yes$50 @ 62.6¢
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?Lost
Yes$51 @ 34.1¢
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Switzerland?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.4¢
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)Lost
Uzbekistan$5 @ 32.0¢
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5Lost
Over$5 @ 24.0¢
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to AdvanceWon
Argentina$35 @ 75.7¢
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5Lost
Over$7 @ 60.0¢
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5Lost
Over$5 @ 44.0¢
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$10 @ 84.0¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Won
No$50 @ 68.4¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$151 @ 21.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 12?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.6¢
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Algeria?Won
Yes$7 @ 38.3¢
Will England win on 2026-07-11?Lost
Yes$51 @ 53.0¢
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5Lost
Under$5 @ 44.0¢
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?Lost
Yes$10 @ 43.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Lost
Yes$11 @ 47.7¢
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Lost
Yes$31 @ 26.0¢
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?Lost
Yes$5 @ 29.0¢
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Switzerland?Lost
Yes$2 @ 15.0¢
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$10 @ 58.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Lost
No$40 @ 84.4¢
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$10 @ 44.0¢
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)Lost
Argentina$5 @ 72.0¢
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$10 @ 73.0¢
Spread: France (-1.5)Lost
France$5 @ 59.0¢
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to AdvanceWon
Morocco$10 @ 51.5¢
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$10 @ 71.0¢
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)Won
Argentina$5 @ 36.0¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerWon
Aurora$41 @ 44.3¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Won
No$455 @ 78.8¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Lost
Yes$48 @ 29.3¢
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5Lost
Over$2 @ 50.7¢
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$10 @ 76.0¢
Will France win on 2026-07-14?Lost
Yes$31 @ 40.7¢
Canada vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5Won
Over$10 @ 39.0¢
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$10 @ 62.1¢
Spread: United States (-2.5)Won
Australia$5 @ 51.0¢
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?Lost
Yes$10 @ 15.4¢
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5Lost
Over$2 @ 17.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?Won
No$300 @ 70.7¢
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5Lost
Over$5 @ 23.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$5 @ 64.0¢
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$10 @ 64.0¢
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw?Lost
Yes$10 @ 20.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$1.4k	83.6¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.3k	84.7¢
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$1.2k	86.6¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$955	91.5¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$650	81.4¢
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	Politics	No	$200	85.8¢
Will Yu Shu-chen win the next Hualien County Magistrate election?	Politics	Yes	$131	81.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	No	$100	75.0¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$100	82.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$100	66.0¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	No	$66	41.3¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$61	55.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$50	72.9¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$50	49.0¢
Will Wei Chia-hsien win the next Hualien County Magistrate election?	Politics	No	$30	85.9¢
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$21	26.1¢
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during their summit?	Politics	Yes	$10	25.0¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$10	39.1¢
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during their summit?	Politics	Yes	$10	33.0¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$10	28.6¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1	44.0¢

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$1.4k @ 83.6¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$1.3k @ 84.7¢
China x Japan military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$1.2k @ 86.6¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
No$955 @ 91.5¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$650 @ 81.4¢
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?Politics
No$200 @ 85.8¢
Will Yu Shu-chen win the next Hualien County Magistrate election?Politics
Yes$131 @ 81.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
No$100 @ 75.0¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics
No$100 @ 82.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$100 @ 66.0¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
No$66 @ 41.3¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$61 @ 55.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$50 @ 72.9¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$50 @ 49.0¢
Will Wei Chia-hsien win the next Hualien County Magistrate election?Politics
No$30 @ 85.9¢
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$21 @ 26.1¢
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during their summit?Politics
Yes$10 @ 25.0¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$10 @ 39.1¢
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during their summit?Politics
Yes$10 @ 33.0¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$10 @ 28.6¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$1 @ 44.0¢