0x4d1d…01ac

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4d1de0d8bf27bbb1f34545e974cfb794ac8e01ac
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.2pp

ROI

+38%

Win rate

24% @ 18.0¢

Brier

0.092

Resolved

838

Avg size

$11

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	22% (62/284)	-10%	284
Sports	34% (33/98)	+19%	98
Politics	23% (20/86)	+44%	86
Geopolitics	14% (1/7)	-63%	7
Economy	20% (1/5)	-30%	5
Culture	20% (1/5)	-55%	5

Other284 bets
Hit rate
22% (62/284)
ROI
-10%
Sports98 bets
Hit rate
34% (33/98)
ROI
+19%
Politics86 bets
Hit rate
23% (20/86)
ROI
+44%
Geopolitics7 bets
Hit rate
14% (1/7)
ROI
-63%
Economy5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
-30%
Culture5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
-55%

Track record

24% hit · 118/485

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
El Paso Locomotive FC vs. FC Tulsa: O/U 3.5	Under	$49	97.0¢	Won
El Paso Locomotive FC vs. FC Tulsa: O/U 5.5	Under	$5	95.0¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$126	4.8¢	Won
FK Velež Mostar vs. FC DAC 1904 Dunajská Streda: O/U 5.5	Over	$4	1.9¢	Lost
Will Club The Strongest vs. Club Independiente Petrolero end in a draw?	Yes	$4	4.0¢	Lost
Will Dan Green be the Republican nominee for FL-09?	Yes	$14	13.9¢	Won
Club Alianza Lima vs. Club Alianza Atlético: O/U 5.5	Over	$3	9.0¢	Lost
Will Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19?	Yes	$2	1.0¢	Lost
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open?	Yes	$3	3.4¢	Won
Will Paris FC win on 2026-09-23?	Yes	$13	1.5¢	Lost
Spread: FK BATE Barysaŭ (-1.5)	FK BATE Barysaŭ	$1	1.4¢	Lost
FC Nordsjælland vs. GAIS: O/U 4.5	Under	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will Lois Frankel be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?	No	$8	3.0¢	Lost
Spread: Arsenal WFC (-1.5)	HB Køge	$5	86.0¢	Won
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$23	13.7¢	Lost
M25 Sintra: Patrick Schoen vs Salvador Monteiro	Salvador Monteiro	$3	4.0¢	Lost
Will KF Valur win on 2026-08-13?	Yes	$1	4.0¢	Lost
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s US Open?	Yes	$5	1.7¢	Lost
Will Jeremy Moss be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?	No	$3	3.0¢	Lost
Will HNK Rijeka win on 2026-07-30?	No	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Ezequiel Duran: Home Runs O/U 0.5	Under	$6	89.5¢	Won
Will Bamin Real Potosí vs. Club Blooming end in a draw?	Yes	$3	3.0¢	Lost
SK Rapid Wien vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: Team to Advance	Heart of Midlothian FC	$26	25.1¢	Won
ITF Sao Paulo: Francisco Fontes Damorim vs Mateus Alves	Francisco Fontes Damorim	$9	6.0¢	Lost
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	No	$8	1.9¢	Lost
Lexington SC vs. Monterey Bay FC: O/U 4.5	Under	$9	16.0¢	Lost
Jong Ajax Amsterdam vs. RKC Waalwijk: O/U 0.5	Under	$1	1.0¢	Lost
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 5.5	Under	$70	63.0¢	Lost
Storozhenko Oleksandr vs. Maltsev Denys	Storozhenko Oleksandr	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?	Yes	$5	3.0¢	Lost
Will Bamin Real Potosí win on 2026-08-09?	No	$8	1.6¢	Lost
Exact Score: Málaga CF 1 - 2 Villarreal CF?	No	$4	58.0¢	Won
Will Paide Linnameeskond win on 2026-08-12?	Yes	$15	3.2¢	Lost
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?	No	$6	6.0¢	Lost
Will Shepshed Dynamo FC win on 2026-09-05?	No	$13	73.0¢	Won
Spread: CSD Macara (-2.5)	CSD Macara	$12	12.6¢	Lost
Will Post Malone perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	$4	89.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Fluxo W7M vs Rush - Map 2 Winner	Rush	$2	9.0¢	Lost
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Elche CF: O/U 3.5	Over	$4	74.0¢	Won
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-08-09?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will MH Hapoel Tel Aviv win on 2026-08-06?	Yes	$82	77.0¢	Won
New York Red Bulls vs. Charlotte FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Under	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will Kaela Berg be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?	Yes	$6	2.4¢	Lost
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	$21	2.0¢	Lost
Will Lincoln Red Imps FC win on 2026-08-06?	Yes	$2	3.0¢	Lost
Will John Shulli be the Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware?	Yes	$5	7.5¢	Lost
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be greater than 3.5%?	Yes	$6	2.2¢	Lost
Will Emiliano Grillo finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Wyndham Championship?	Yes	$5	24.0¢	Lost
Will Matthew "Bronco" Williams advance from the AK-AL primary election?	No	$9	74.0¢	Won
Will Matthew "Bronco" Williams advance from the AK-AL primary election?	Yes	$41	32.7¢	Lost

El Paso Locomotive FC vs. FC Tulsa: O/U 3.5Won
Under$49 @ 97.0¢
El Paso Locomotive FC vs. FC Tulsa: O/U 5.5Won
Under$5 @ 95.0¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
No$126 @ 4.8¢
FK Velež Mostar vs. FC DAC 1904 Dunajská Streda: O/U 5.5Lost
Over$4 @ 1.9¢
Will Club The Strongest vs. Club Independiente Petrolero end in a draw?Lost
Yes$4 @ 4.0¢
Will Dan Green be the Republican nominee for FL-09?Won
Yes$14 @ 13.9¢
Club Alianza Lima vs. Club Alianza Atlético: O/U 5.5Lost
Over$3 @ 9.0¢
Will Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.0¢
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open?Won
Yes$3 @ 3.4¢
Will Paris FC win on 2026-09-23?Lost
Yes$13 @ 1.5¢
Spread: FK BATE Barysaŭ (-1.5)Lost
FK BATE Barysaŭ$1 @ 1.4¢
FC Nordsjælland vs. GAIS: O/U 4.5Lost
Under$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Lois Frankel be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?Lost
No$8 @ 3.0¢
Spread: Arsenal WFC (-1.5)Won
HB Køge$5 @ 86.0¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$23 @ 13.7¢
M25 Sintra: Patrick Schoen vs Salvador MonteiroLost
Salvador Monteiro$3 @ 4.0¢
Will KF Valur win on 2026-08-13?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.0¢
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s US Open?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.7¢
Will Jeremy Moss be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?Lost
No$3 @ 3.0¢
Will HNK Rijeka win on 2026-07-30?Lost
No$1 @ 1.0¢
Ezequiel Duran: Home Runs O/U 0.5Won
Under$6 @ 89.5¢
Will Bamin Real Potosí vs. Club Blooming end in a draw?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.0¢
SK Rapid Wien vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: Team to AdvanceWon
Heart of Midlothian FC$26 @ 25.1¢
ITF Sao Paulo: Francisco Fontes Damorim vs Mateus AlvesLost
Francisco Fontes Damorim$9 @ 6.0¢
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?Lost
No$8 @ 1.9¢
Lexington SC vs. Monterey Bay FC: O/U 4.5Lost
Under$9 @ 16.0¢
Jong Ajax Amsterdam vs. RKC Waalwijk: O/U 0.5Lost
Under$1 @ 1.0¢
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 5.5Lost
Under$70 @ 63.0¢
Storozhenko Oleksandr vs. Maltsev DenysLost
Storozhenko Oleksandr$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?Lost
Yes$5 @ 3.0¢
Will Bamin Real Potosí win on 2026-08-09?Lost
No$8 @ 1.6¢
Exact Score: Málaga CF 1 - 2 Villarreal CF?Won
No$4 @ 58.0¢
Will Paide Linnameeskond win on 2026-08-12?Lost
Yes$15 @ 3.2¢
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?Lost
No$6 @ 6.0¢
Will Shepshed Dynamo FC win on 2026-09-05?Won
No$13 @ 73.0¢
Spread: CSD Macara (-2.5)Lost
CSD Macara$12 @ 12.6¢
Will Post Malone perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?Won
No$4 @ 89.0¢
Counter-Strike: Fluxo W7M vs Rush - Map 2 WinnerLost
Rush$2 @ 9.0¢
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Elche CF: O/U 3.5Won
Over$4 @ 74.0¢
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-08-09?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will MH Hapoel Tel Aviv win on 2026-08-06?Won
Yes$82 @ 77.0¢
New York Red Bulls vs. Charlotte FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Lost
Under$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Kaela Berg be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?Lost
Yes$6 @ 2.4¢
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
No$21 @ 2.0¢
Will Lincoln Red Imps FC win on 2026-08-06?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.0¢
Will John Shulli be the Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware?Lost
Yes$5 @ 7.5¢
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be greater than 3.5%?Lost
Yes$6 @ 2.2¢
Will Emiliano Grillo finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Wyndham Championship?Lost
Yes$5 @ 24.0¢
Will Matthew "Bronco" Williams advance from the AK-AL primary election?Won
No$9 @ 74.0¢
Will Matthew "Bronco" Williams advance from the AK-AL primary election?Lost
Yes$41 @ 32.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?	Sports	Yes	$3.6k	88.4¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NE-01 House seat?	Politics	No	$1.4k	87.2¢
Will the Democratic Party win the AK-AL House seat?	Politics	No	$1.1k	94.2¢
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$949	94.3¢
Will the Republican Party win the NE-01 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$638	86.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the TN-07 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$546	91.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-07 House seat?	Politics	No	$546	91.0¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$489	35.6¢
Will the Republican Party win the NV-04 House seat?	Politics	No	$316	90.4¢
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-05 House seat?	Politics	No	$282	94.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the GA-02 House seat?	Politics	No	$281	93.5¢
Will Olivia Miles win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award?	Sports	Yes	$280	98.2¢
Will the Republican Party win the NM-03 House seat?	Politics	No	$279	93.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-36 House seat?	Politics	No	$279	92.9¢
Will the Republican Party win the PA-11 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$276	92.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$274	13.7¢
Will the Republican Party win the AK-AL House seat?	Politics	Yes	$258	86.0¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$255	85.0¢
Will Nasim Nuñez lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?	Sports	Yes	$191	76.6¢
Will Armenia win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?	Sports	No	$191	96.2¢
Dalton Schultz: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5	Sports	Under	$179	41.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the TX-36 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$158	93.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$146	97.3¢
Stonehill vs. Ohio	Sports	Ohio	$145	98.5¢
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the September 2026 meeting?	Geopolitics	Yes	$143	82.6¢
Will the Republican Party win the OK-04 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$141	94.0¢
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the September 2026 meeting?	Geopolitics	No	$140	6.3¢
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-04 House seat?	Politics	No	$140	93.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the TN-04 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$140	93.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the IA-01 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$134	29.5¢

Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?Sports
Yes$3.6k @ 88.4¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NE-01 House seat?Politics
No$1.4k @ 87.2¢
Will the Democratic Party win the AK-AL House seat?Politics
No$1.1k @ 94.2¢
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$949 @ 94.3¢
Will the Republican Party win the NE-01 House seat?Politics
Yes$638 @ 86.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the TN-07 House seat?Politics
Yes$546 @ 91.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-07 House seat?Politics
No$546 @ 91.0¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$489 @ 35.6¢
Will the Republican Party win the NV-04 House seat?Politics
No$316 @ 90.4¢
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-05 House seat?Politics
No$282 @ 94.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the GA-02 House seat?Politics
No$281 @ 93.5¢
Will Olivia Miles win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award?Sports
Yes$280 @ 98.2¢
Will the Republican Party win the NM-03 House seat?Politics
No$279 @ 93.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-36 House seat?Politics
No$279 @ 92.9¢
Will the Republican Party win the PA-11 House seat?Politics
Yes$276 @ 92.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$274 @ 13.7¢
Will the Republican Party win the AK-AL House seat?Politics
Yes$258 @ 86.0¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$255 @ 85.0¢
Will Nasim Nuñez lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?Sports
Yes$191 @ 76.6¢
Will Armenia win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?Sports
No$191 @ 96.2¢
Dalton Schultz: Receiving Yards O/U 49.5Sports
Under$179 @ 41.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the TX-36 House seat?Politics
Yes$158 @ 93.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$146 @ 97.3¢
Stonehill vs. OhioSports
Ohio$145 @ 98.5¢
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the September 2026 meeting?Geopolitics
Yes$143 @ 82.6¢
Will the Republican Party win the OK-04 House seat?Politics
Yes$141 @ 94.0¢
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the September 2026 meeting?Geopolitics
No$140 @ 6.3¢
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-04 House seat?Politics
No$140 @ 93.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the TN-04 House seat?Politics
Yes$140 @ 93.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the IA-01 House seat?Politics
Yes$134 @ 29.5¢