0x4d1d…01ac

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4d1de0d8bf27bbb1f34545e974cfb794ac8e01ac
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.6pp

ROI

+53%

Win rate

28% @ 20.5¢

Brier

0.108

Resolved

1249

Avg size

$12

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Sports	52% (241/460)	+11%	460
Politics	59% (258/437)	+13%	437
Other	25% (75/303)	-7%	303
Culture	47% (24/51)	-19%	51
Economy	69% (34/49)	-1%	49
Geopolitics	40% (6/15)	+325%	15
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Sports460 bets
Hit rate
52% (241/460)
ROI
+11%
Politics437 bets
Hit rate
59% (258/437)
ROI
+13%
Other303 bets
Hit rate
25% (75/303)
ROI
-7%
Culture51 bets
Hit rate
47% (24/51)
ROI
-19%
Economy49 bets
Hit rate
69% (34/49)
ROI
-1%
Geopolitics15 bets
Hit rate
40% (6/15)
ROI
+325%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

48% hit · 638/1316

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	$118	26.0¢	Lost
Will New Zealand A win?	No	$5	91.0¢	Won
Will Young Kim win the CA-40 House seat?	No	$33	55.3¢	Won
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of November 14?	No	$3	42.2¢	Won
Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of November 14?	No	$29	97.8¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?	No	$18	65.0¢	Won
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-02 House seat?	Yes	$99	73.0¢	Won
Spread: Cardinals (-5.5)	Cardinals	$3	11.0¢	Lost
Exact Margin: Tie	No	$38	98.0¢	Won
Will Ben James win the 2026 World Wide Technology Championship?	Yes	$15	5.0¢	Lost
3Q Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)	Cardinals	$3	58.0¢	Won
Spread: Patriots (-20.5)	Packers	$46	91.0¢	Won
Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-1.5)	SC Freiburg	$5	95.0¢	Won
Will Niklas Noergaard win the 2026 Abu Dhabi Championship?	No	$99	99.0¢	Won
Will Daniel Hillier win the 2026 Abu Dhabi Championship?	No	$6	97.5¢	Won
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona O/U 2.5	Under	$9	84.0¢	Won
Spread: Moreirense FC (-1.5)	Sporting CP	$9	94.9¢	Won
1H Spread: Wake Forest (-20.5)	Merrimack	$6	16.0¢	Lost
Will Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra win the 2026 Abu Dhabi Championship?	No	$196	97.9¢	Won
SBV Excelsior vs. Go Ahead Eagles: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Under	$4	83.0¢	Won
Columbia vs. Harvard	Harvard	$12	91.0¢	Won
Will Christopher Bell win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship?	No	$14	96.4¢	Won
Will Layne Riggs win the 2026 NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series championship?	Yes	$4	33.0¢	Lost
Will Matthew Jordan win the 2026 Abu Dhabi Championship?	Yes	$1	7.3¢	Lost
Will Jeb Burton win the 2026 NASCAR Xfinity Series NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Championship Race?	No	$5	90.0¢	Won
Youngstown State vs. Murray State	Youngstown State	$35	94.0¢	Won
Will the match end in a draw?	Yes	$2	14.0¢	Won
1st Half Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)	Manchester City FC	$5	94.0¢	Lost
Miami (FL) vs. Notre Dame: Game Goes to Overtime	No	$9	93.0¢	Won
Will Bangladesh win?	No	$20	49.7¢	Won
Will Bangladesh win?	Yes	$1	20.0¢	Lost
West Virginia Team Total: O/U 23.5	Over	$5	50.0¢	Won
Will Denny Hamlin win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship?	No	$48	97.9¢	Won
Will Kyle Larson win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship?	Yes	$19	92.5¢	Won
Will Carson Kvapil win the 2026 NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series championship?	No	$30	91.0¢	Won
Will Jesse Love win the 2026 NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series championship?	No	$47	57.5¢	Won
Will Jesse Love win the 2026 NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series championship?	Yes	$23	57.9¢	Lost
Will Sheldon Creed win the 2026 NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series championship?	No	$119	79.2¢	Won
Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by October 31?	Yes	$103	19.9¢	Won
Will Washington have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	U 8.5	$70	79.0¢	Won
California Expedited Environmental Review Proposition	Yes	$31	51.3¢	Lost
Will the NBA announce an expansion team in Las Vegas by November 6, 2026?	Yes	$11	28.4¢	Lost
Will Kaden Honeycutt win the 2026 NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series championship?	No	$4	52.0¢	Lost
Will Kaden Honeycutt win the 2026 NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series championship?	Yes	$15	72.5¢	Won
Will the Republican Party win the SC-01 House seat?	Yes	$16	68.0¢	Lost
Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 House seat?	Yes	$43	82.2¢	Won
Will Melissa Hernandez win the CA-14 House seat?	No	$124	82.5¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-01 House seat?	No	$510	68.0¢	Lost
Will the Republican Party win the UT-04 House seat?	Yes	$29	95.9¢	Won
Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Arizona in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	$45	76.5¢	Won

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Lost
Yes$118 @ 26.0¢
Will New Zealand A win?Won
No$5 @ 91.0¢
Will Young Kim win the CA-40 House seat?Won
No$33 @ 55.3¢
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of November 14?Won
No$3 @ 42.2¢
Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of November 14?Won
No$29 @ 97.8¢
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?Won
No$18 @ 65.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-02 House seat?Won
Yes$99 @ 73.0¢
Spread: Cardinals (-5.5)Lost
Cardinals$3 @ 11.0¢
Exact Margin: TieWon
No$38 @ 98.0¢
Will Ben James win the 2026 World Wide Technology Championship?Lost
Yes$15 @ 5.0¢
3Q Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)Won
Cardinals$3 @ 58.0¢
Spread: Patriots (-20.5)Won
Packers$46 @ 91.0¢
Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-1.5)Won
SC Freiburg$5 @ 95.0¢
Will Niklas Noergaard win the 2026 Abu Dhabi Championship?Won
No$99 @ 99.0¢
Will Daniel Hillier win the 2026 Abu Dhabi Championship?Won
No$6 @ 97.5¢
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona O/U 2.5Won
Under$9 @ 84.0¢
Spread: Moreirense FC (-1.5)Won
Sporting CP$9 @ 94.9¢
1H Spread: Wake Forest (-20.5)Lost
Merrimack$6 @ 16.0¢
Will Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra win the 2026 Abu Dhabi Championship?Won
No$196 @ 97.9¢
SBV Excelsior vs. Go Ahead Eagles: 1st Half O/U 2.5Won
Under$4 @ 83.0¢
Columbia vs. HarvardWon
Harvard$12 @ 91.0¢
Will Christopher Bell win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship?Won
No$14 @ 96.4¢
Will Layne Riggs win the 2026 NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series championship?Lost
Yes$4 @ 33.0¢
Will Matthew Jordan win the 2026 Abu Dhabi Championship?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.3¢
Will Jeb Burton win the 2026 NASCAR Xfinity Series NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Championship Race?Won
No$5 @ 90.0¢
Youngstown State vs. Murray StateWon
Youngstown State$35 @ 94.0¢
Will the match end in a draw?Won
Yes$2 @ 14.0¢
1st Half Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)Lost
Manchester City FC$5 @ 94.0¢
Miami (FL) vs. Notre Dame: Game Goes to OvertimeWon
No$9 @ 93.0¢
Will Bangladesh win?Won
No$20 @ 49.7¢
Will Bangladesh win?Lost
Yes$1 @ 20.0¢
West Virginia Team Total: O/U 23.5Won
Over$5 @ 50.0¢
Will Denny Hamlin win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship?Won
No$48 @ 97.9¢
Will Kyle Larson win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship?Won
Yes$19 @ 92.5¢
Will Carson Kvapil win the 2026 NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series championship?Won
No$30 @ 91.0¢
Will Jesse Love win the 2026 NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series championship?Won
No$47 @ 57.5¢
Will Jesse Love win the 2026 NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series championship?Lost
Yes$23 @ 57.9¢
Will Sheldon Creed win the 2026 NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series championship?Won
No$119 @ 79.2¢
Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by October 31?Won
Yes$103 @ 19.9¢
Will Washington have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?Won
U 8.5$70 @ 79.0¢
California Expedited Environmental Review PropositionLost
Yes$31 @ 51.3¢
Will the NBA announce an expansion team in Las Vegas by November 6, 2026?Lost
Yes$11 @ 28.4¢
Will Kaden Honeycutt win the 2026 NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series championship?Lost
No$4 @ 52.0¢
Will Kaden Honeycutt win the 2026 NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series championship?Won
Yes$15 @ 72.5¢
Will the Republican Party win the SC-01 House seat?Lost
Yes$16 @ 68.0¢
Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 House seat?Won
Yes$43 @ 82.2¢
Will Melissa Hernandez win the CA-14 House seat?Won
No$124 @ 82.5¢
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-01 House seat?Lost
No$510 @ 68.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the UT-04 House seat?Won
Yes$29 @ 95.9¢
Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Arizona in the 2026 midterm elections?Won
No$45 @ 76.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.4k	43.6¢
Will the Democratic Party win the AK-AL House seat?	Politics	No	$1.1k	94.2¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	Politics	Yes	$1.0k	32.6¢
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Politics	Yes	$885	28.1¢
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	Culture	No	$729	80.9¢
Will BYU have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	—	O 8.5	$708	58.9¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Mexico Senate election by 21% or more?	Politics	Yes	$443	42.9¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Jersey Senate election by 21% or more?	Politics	Yes	$424	55.1¢
Will the Republican Party win the AK-AL House seat?	Politics	Yes	$341	84.5¢
Will Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Politics	No	$326	72.4¢
Will Tina Kotek underperform Kamala in Oregon?	Politics	Yes	$290	90.8¢
Will the Republican Party win the TN-04 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$279	92.9¢
Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia?	Politics	No	$264	35.4¢
Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League MVP Award?	Sports	Yes	$239	94.8¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	Yes	$208	27.6¢
Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?	Politics	No	$159	53.0¢
Will Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$156	32.3¢
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-04 House seat?	Politics	No	$140	93.0¢
Will Andy Beshear announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$139	15.0¢
Will Samuel Marcos Daza Taype win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Politics	No	$132	98.4¢
Will Democrats win exactly 9 House seats in Florida in the 2026 midterm elections?	Politics	No	$131	86.8¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$128	30.3¢
Will Ignotas Adomavičius win the 2026 Northern Nalšia district by-election?	Politics	No	$127	83.4¢
Will the Democratic Party win the LA-06 House seat?	Politics	No	$122	94.0¢
Will Stephanie Bowman win the 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election?	Politics	No	$116	85.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-01 House seat?	Politics	No	$116	77.0¢
Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in South Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?	Politics	No	$110	68.5¢
Will Dalia Štraupaitė win the 2026 Northern Nalšia district by-election?	Politics	No	$110	91.7¢
Will Ho Hsin-chun win the next Taichung Mayor election?	Politics	No	$110	71.0¢
Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Politics	No	$109	94.7¢

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
Yes$1.4k @ 43.6¢
Will the Democratic Party win the AK-AL House seat?Politics
No$1.1k @ 94.2¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?Politics
Yes$1.0k @ 32.6¢
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?Politics
Yes$885 @ 28.1¢
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?Culture
No$729 @ 80.9¢
Will BYU have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?—
O 8.5$708 @ 58.9¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Mexico Senate election by 21% or more?Politics
Yes$443 @ 42.9¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Jersey Senate election by 21% or more?Politics
Yes$424 @ 55.1¢
Will the Republican Party win the AK-AL House seat?Politics
Yes$341 @ 84.5¢
Will Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run before 2027?Politics
No$326 @ 72.4¢
Will Tina Kotek underperform Kamala in Oregon?Politics
Yes$290 @ 90.8¢
Will the Republican Party win the TN-04 House seat?Politics
Yes$279 @ 92.9¢
Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia?Politics
No$264 @ 35.4¢
Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League MVP Award?Sports
Yes$239 @ 94.8¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
Yes$208 @ 27.6¢
Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?Politics
No$159 @ 53.0¢
Will Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run before 2027?Politics
Yes$156 @ 32.3¢
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-04 House seat?Politics
No$140 @ 93.0¢
Will Andy Beshear announce a Presidential run before 2027?Politics
Yes$139 @ 15.0¢
Will Samuel Marcos Daza Taype win the next Lima mayoral elections?Politics
No$132 @ 98.4¢
Will Democrats win exactly 9 House seats in Florida in the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
No$131 @ 86.8¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$128 @ 30.3¢
Will Ignotas Adomavičius win the 2026 Northern Nalšia district by-election?Politics
No$127 @ 83.4¢
Will the Democratic Party win the LA-06 House seat?Politics
No$122 @ 94.0¢
Will Stephanie Bowman win the 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election?Politics
No$116 @ 85.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-01 House seat?Politics
No$116 @ 77.0¢
Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in South Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
No$110 @ 68.5¢
Will Dalia Štraupaitė win the 2026 Northern Nalšia district by-election?Politics
No$110 @ 91.7¢
Will Ho Hsin-chun win the next Taichung Mayor election?Politics
No$110 @ 71.0¢
Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?Politics
No$109 @ 94.7¢