0x4d01…1645

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4d0121458bb2f96c6440c0f3835d675ad3ce1645
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.0pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

41% @ 36.9¢

Brier

0.126

Resolved

2769

Avg size

$48

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	43% (138/319)	+4%	319
Politics	50% (54/108)	+11%	108
Geopolitics	67% (8/12)	+5%	12
Tech	33% (1/3)	-41%	3
Sports	100% (1/1)	+173%	1
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other319 bets
Hit rate
43% (138/319)
ROI
+4%
Politics108 bets
Hit rate
50% (54/108)
ROI
+11%
Geopolitics12 bets
Hit rate
67% (8/12)
ROI
+5%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-41%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+173%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

45% hit · 202/444

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	No	$2.2k	98.6¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$89	8.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$62	19.3¢	Lost
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?	Yes	$146	89.9¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$136	68.0¢	Won
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$48	20.3¢	Lost
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$5	2.3¢	Lost
Will Spain join the Board of Peace?	No	$310	88.8¢	Won
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	$178	89.0¢	Won
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	No	$821	85.7¢	Won
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$229	2.6¢	Lost
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	No	$87	87.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$80	40.0¢	Lost
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%?	Yes	$57	36.7¢	Won
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$124	10.3¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$232	58.0¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$53	12.5¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	No	$176	88.0¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	Yes	$18	9.0¢	Lost
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 31?	No	$21	9.8¢	Lost
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	$187	19.3¢	Lost
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	Yes	$86	53.8¢	Won
Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?	Yes	$29	3.8¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?	Yes	$437	65.0¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	No	$136	34.0¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$835	64.2¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	No	$182	36.0¢	Lost
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$4	3.8¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	No	$16	78.0¢	Lost
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Yes	$45	3.0¢	Lost
Will Franco Parisi come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?	No	$72	65.0¢	Won
Will Vox (VOX) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election?	Yes	$9	0.3¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$58	58.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$2.2k	73.7¢	Won
Will Trump visit Israel by October 15?	Yes	$328	81.3¢	Won
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?	No	$6	60.0¢	Lost
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Yes	$343	85.8¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?	No	$2.1k	85.3¢	Won
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30?	No	$179	89.0¢	Won
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30?	Yes	$94	20.9¢	Lost
Will Torsten Bell be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	$5	0.2¢	Lost
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?	No	$73	24.3¢	Lost
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election?	Yes	$8	0.8¢	Lost
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Yes	$45	4.5¢	Lost
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	No	$218	83.4¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in July?	Yes	$371	87.4¢	Won
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?	Yes	$10	25.8¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$579	87.0¢	Won
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$20	6.1¢	Lost
Will Kast win by at least 25%?	Yes	$7	5.1¢	Lost

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026Won
No$2.2k @ 98.6¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$89 @ 8.0¢
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$62 @ 19.3¢
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?Won
Yes$146 @ 89.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$136 @ 68.0¢
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$48 @ 20.3¢
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.3¢
Will Spain join the Board of Peace?Won
No$310 @ 88.8¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Won
No$178 @ 89.0¢
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Won
No$821 @ 85.7¢
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
Yes$229 @ 2.6¢
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?Won
No$87 @ 87.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$80 @ 40.0¢
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%?Won
Yes$57 @ 36.7¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$124 @ 10.3¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$232 @ 58.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$53 @ 12.5¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Won
No$176 @ 88.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Lost
Yes$18 @ 9.0¢
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 31?Lost
No$21 @ 9.8¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Lost
No$187 @ 19.3¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Won
Yes$86 @ 53.8¢
Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?Lost
Yes$29 @ 3.8¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?Lost
Yes$437 @ 65.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Lost
No$136 @ 34.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$835 @ 64.2¢
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?Lost
No$182 @ 36.0¢
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$4 @ 3.8¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Lost
No$16 @ 78.0¢
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Lost
Yes$45 @ 3.0¢
Will Franco Parisi come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?Won
No$72 @ 65.0¢
Will Vox (VOX) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.3¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$58 @ 58.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$2.2k @ 73.7¢
Will Trump visit Israel by October 15?Won
Yes$328 @ 81.3¢
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$6 @ 60.0¢
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionLost
Yes$343 @ 85.8¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?Won
No$2.1k @ 85.3¢
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30?Won
No$179 @ 89.0¢
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30?Lost
Yes$94 @ 20.9¢
Will Torsten Bell be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.2¢
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?Lost
No$73 @ 24.3¢
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.8¢
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Lost
Yes$45 @ 4.5¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?Won
No$218 @ 83.4¢
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in July?Won
Yes$371 @ 87.4¢
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?Won
Yes$10 @ 25.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$579 @ 87.0¢
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$20 @ 6.1¢
Will Kast win by at least 25%?Lost
Yes$7 @ 5.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	Politics	Yes	$7.8k	96.7¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$7.1k	97.4¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Politics	Yes	$6.7k	97.3¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$5.9k	82.3¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$5.2k	85.7¢
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?	Politics	No	$4.7k	84.9¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$4.5k	59.1¢
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	Culture	No	$4.1k	84.9¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$3.4k	97.2¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$2.5k	32.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2.2k	91.9¢
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?	Politics	Yes	$2.2k	94.0¢
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$1.9k	87.1¢
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.4k	84.6¢
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	66.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	69.3¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?	Business	No	$1.1k	99.0¢
Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Politics	No	$1.1k	98.5¢
Will Manuela Schwesig be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?	—	Yes	$1.0k	92.0¢
Will Jorginho Mello win the Governor of Santa Catarina election?	Politics	Yes	$1.0k	88.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$994	54.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$864	92.0¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$745	67.1¢
Will Christopher Nolan win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	No	$705	37.8¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$604	38.4¢
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	Culture	No	$574	68.3¢
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	Politics	No	$554	85.3¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Politics	Yes	$536	96.5¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$499	55.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Politics	No	$490	70.0¢

Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?Politics
Yes$7.8k @ 96.7¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$7.1k @ 97.4¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Politics
Yes$6.7k @ 97.3¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
No$5.9k @ 82.3¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$5.2k @ 85.7¢
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?Politics
No$4.7k @ 84.9¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$4.5k @ 59.1¢
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Culture
No$4.1k @ 84.9¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$3.4k @ 97.2¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$2.5k @ 32.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$2.2k @ 91.9¢
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?Politics
Yes$2.2k @ 94.0¢
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Politics
Yes$1.9k @ 87.1¢
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.4k @ 84.6¢
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 66.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 69.3¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?Business
No$1.1k @ 99.0¢
Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Politics
No$1.1k @ 98.5¢
Will Manuela Schwesig be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?—
Yes$1.0k @ 92.0¢
Will Jorginho Mello win the Governor of Santa Catarina election?Politics
Yes$1.0k @ 88.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$994 @ 54.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$864 @ 92.0¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$745 @ 67.1¢
Will Christopher Nolan win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
No$705 @ 37.8¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$604 @ 38.4¢
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Culture
No$574 @ 68.3¢
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?Politics
No$554 @ 85.3¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Politics
Yes$536 @ 96.5¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$499 @ 55.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Politics
No$490 @ 70.0¢