0x4c8c…e36f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4c8cdcdd4c92bf44e74a642254f7414de14de36f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+27.6pp

ROI

+54%

Win rate

78% @ 50.6¢

Brier

0.212

Resolved

2936

Avg size

$363

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	66% (19/29)	+70%	29
Other	44% (8/18)	-5%	18
Sports	100% (2/2)	+51%	2

Politics29 bets
Hit rate
66% (19/29)
ROI
+70%
Other18 bets
Hit rate
44% (8/18)
ROI
-5%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+51%

Track record

59% hit · 29/49

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	$1.6k	59.6¢	Won
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?	Yes	$4.1k	31.7¢	Won
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	No	$1.4k	60.0¢	Won
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	Yes	$1.9k	67.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$12.1k	76.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$18.0k	16.2¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.7k	74.0¢	Won
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	$491	2.7¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	No	$13.4k	36.7¢	Lost
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	$4.1k	45.3¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$5.0k	26.8¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$39.6k	66.6¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$79.0k	84.2¢	Won
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	No	$428	15.0¢	Lost
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	$19.3k	82.4¢	Won
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	No	$14.4k	82.1¢	Won
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	$600	15.0¢	Lost
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	No	$31.8k	46.8¢	Lost
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	$48.3k	69.0¢	Won
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$62.3k	56.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$110.6k	38.2¢	Won
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$12.4k	57.0¢	Won
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$12.8k	68.2¢	Won
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$9.1k	35.5¢	Lost
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	No	$36.9k	68.8¢	Won
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	No	$7.1k	59.7¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	$36.0k	21.6¢	Lost
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$3.1k	71.3¢	Won
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	$7.5k	59.5¢	Won
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?	No	$905	26.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$11.5k	74.6¢	Lost
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$5.6k	48.3¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$3.9k	78.0¢	Won
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	No	$54.3k	59.2¢	Won
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$258	21.5¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$17.8k	24.3¢	Lost
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?	No	$3.8k	31.7¢	Won
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	No	$2.1k	69.0¢	Won
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$18.0k	61.8¢	Won
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$9.9k	85.1¢	Won
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?	Yes	$1.3k	26.5¢	Lost
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$2.8k	70.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	$5.7k	16.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$303.6k	47.3¢	Won
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	No	$669	20.0¢	Won
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?	Yes	$4.5k	64.3¢	Lost
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	$21.2k	47.3¢	Lost
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$1.9k	15.0¢	Lost
Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$679	18.1¢	Lost

Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 59.6¢
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?Won
Yes$4.1k @ 31.7¢
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Won
No$1.4k @ 60.0¢
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 67.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$12.1k @ 76.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$18.0k @ 16.2¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 74.0¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Lost
No$491 @ 2.7¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Lost
No$13.4k @ 36.7¢
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Lost
Yes$4.1k @ 45.3¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
No$5.0k @ 26.8¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$39.6k @ 66.6¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$79.0k @ 84.2¢
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Lost
No$428 @ 15.0¢
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Won
Yes$19.3k @ 82.4¢
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Won
No$14.4k @ 82.1¢
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Lost
Yes$600 @ 15.0¢
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?Lost
No$31.8k @ 46.8¢
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?Won
Yes$48.3k @ 69.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$62.3k @ 56.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$110.6k @ 38.2¢
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$12.4k @ 57.0¢
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
No$12.8k @ 68.2¢
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
Yes$9.1k @ 35.5¢
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Won
No$36.9k @ 68.8¢
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Won
No$7.1k @ 59.7¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
No$36.0k @ 21.6¢
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?Won
No$3.1k @ 71.3¢
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Won
Yes$7.5k @ 59.5¢
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?Lost
No$905 @ 26.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$11.5k @ 74.6¢
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?Won
Yes$5.6k @ 48.3¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$3.9k @ 78.0¢
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Won
No$54.3k @ 59.2¢
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$258 @ 21.5¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$17.8k @ 24.3¢
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?Won
No$3.8k @ 31.7¢
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?Won
No$2.1k @ 69.0¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$18.0k @ 61.8¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
Yes$9.9k @ 85.1¢
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 26.5¢
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?Won
Yes$2.8k @ 70.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$5.7k @ 16.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$303.6k @ 47.3¢
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Won
No$669 @ 20.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Lost
Yes$4.5k @ 64.3¢
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?Lost
Yes$21.2k @ 47.3¢
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
No$1.9k @ 15.0¢
Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
Yes$679 @ 18.1¢

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