0x4c86…6993

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4c86cdfff0fcff0f6b56a9ddb9f805b4b28f6993
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.8pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

49% @ 46.3¢

Brier

0.097

Resolved

1663

Avg size

$105

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	40% (80/199)	+3%	199
Sports	29% (41/141)	+12%	141
Politics	50% (2/4)	+1%	4

Other199 bets
Hit rate
40% (80/199)
ROI
+3%
Sports141 bets
Hit rate
29% (41/141)
ROI
+12%
Politics4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+1%

Track record

36% hit · 123/344

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	$21	3.1¢	Lost
Will South Africa win?	No	$440	97.8¢	Won
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Austria?	No	$880	88.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 Ghana?	Yes	$4	4.0¢	Lost
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	No	$1.5k	31.0¢	Lost
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$670	67.0¢	Won
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Yes	$8	1.6¢	Lost
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5	Over	$19	75.1¢	Lost
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$133	5.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Algeria?	No	$82	27.3¢	Lost
Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?	No	$258	25.8¢	Won
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	No	$385	77.0¢	Won
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$610	61.0¢	Won
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	No	$6.8k	85.0¢	Won
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals	Yes	$24	3.9¢	Lost
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	No	$2.0k	34.0¢	Lost
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals	Yes	$41	2.9¢	Lost
Generali Open: Alexander Bublik vs Tomas Etcheverry	Tomas Etcheverry	$8	3.2¢	Lost
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5	Over	$1.0k	46.6¢	Lost
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?	Yes	$83	20.0¢	Lost
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$8	0.8¢	Lost
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	No	$770	25.7¢	Lost
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	No	$500	10.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria?	No	$592	49.1¢	Won
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Croatia?	No	$14	51.0¢	Won
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	No	$840	84.0¢	Won
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria?	Yes	$1	7.4¢	Lost
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5	Over	$30	8.8¢	Lost
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	No	$207	6.9¢	Lost
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States?	No	$3.6k	89.0¢	Won
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?	No	$50	2.5¢	Lost
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Morocco?	Yes	$100	5.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao?	No	$2.2k	73.7¢	Won
France vs. England: O/U 0.5	Under	$317	3.9¢	Lost
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia?	No	$890	89.0¢	Won
Hamburg European Open: Mayar Sherif vs Paula Badosa	Paula Badosa	$205	38.5¢	Lost
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$5	0.4¢	Lost
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	No	$614	59.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	Yes	$70	16.3¢	Lost
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$13	9.9¢	Won
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Austria?	No	$890	89.0¢	Won
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	No	$1.6k	73.0¢	Lost
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	No	$1.9k	47.0¢	Won
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 England?	Yes	$110	1.1¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$2.6k	42.0¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	$311	22.6¢	Lost
Will New Zealand win?	No	$51	65.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico?	No	$345	36.3¢	Won
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt?	No	$15	88.6¢	Won

Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Lost
Yes$21 @ 3.1¢
Will South Africa win?Won
No$440 @ 97.8¢
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Austria?Lost
No$880 @ 88.0¢
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 Ghana?Lost
Yes$4 @ 4.0¢
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?Lost
No$1.5k @ 31.0¢
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?Won
Yes$670 @ 67.0¢
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?Lost
Yes$8 @ 1.6¢
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5Lost
Over$19 @ 75.1¢
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?Lost
Yes$133 @ 5.0¢
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Algeria?Lost
No$82 @ 27.3¢
Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?Won
No$258 @ 25.8¢
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?Won
No$385 @ 77.0¢
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?Won
Yes$610 @ 61.0¢
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia?Won
No$6.8k @ 85.0¢
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goalsLost
Yes$24 @ 3.9¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Lost
No$2.0k @ 34.0¢
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goalsLost
Yes$41 @ 2.9¢
Generali Open: Alexander Bublik vs Tomas EtcheverryLost
Tomas Etcheverry$8 @ 3.2¢
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5Lost
Over$1.0k @ 46.6¢
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?Lost
Yes$83 @ 20.0¢
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.8¢
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?Lost
No$770 @ 25.7¢
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?Lost
No$500 @ 10.0¢
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria?Won
No$592 @ 49.1¢
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Croatia?Won
No$14 @ 51.0¢
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?Won
No$840 @ 84.0¢
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.4¢
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5Lost
Over$30 @ 8.8¢
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?Lost
No$207 @ 6.9¢
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States?Won
No$3.6k @ 89.0¢
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?Lost
No$50 @ 2.5¢
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Morocco?Lost
Yes$100 @ 5.0¢
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao?Won
No$2.2k @ 73.7¢
France vs. England: O/U 0.5Lost
Under$317 @ 3.9¢
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia?Won
No$890 @ 89.0¢
Hamburg European Open: Mayar Sherif vs Paula BadosaLost
Paula Badosa$205 @ 38.5¢
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.4¢
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?Lost
No$614 @ 59.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?Lost
Yes$70 @ 16.3¢
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$13 @ 9.9¢
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Austria?Won
No$890 @ 89.0¢
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?Lost
No$1.6k @ 73.0¢
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?Won
No$1.9k @ 47.0¢
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 England?Lost
Yes$110 @ 1.1¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
No$2.6k @ 42.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
No$311 @ 22.6¢
Will New Zealand win?Lost
No$51 @ 65.0¢
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico?Won
No$345 @ 36.3¢
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt?Won
No$15 @ 88.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	Politics	No	$626	99.5¢
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$274	29.7¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$100	50.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$51	50.7¢
Will Iran legalize gay marriage?	Politics	No	$6	97.8¢
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢
Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢
Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢
Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?Politics
No$626 @ 99.5¢
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$274 @ 29.7¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$100 @ 50.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$51 @ 50.7¢
Will Iran legalize gay marriage?Politics
No$6 @ 97.8¢
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢