0x4b30…4b79

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4b303fb5cb800db6168a6851d62dcbfdf01d4b79
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.7pp

ROI

+18%

Win rate

82% @ 69.2¢

Brier

0.109

Resolved

127

Avg size

$172

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	87% (13/15)	+25%	15
Other	78% (7/9)	-3%	9
Geopolitics	67% (4/6)	-23%	6
Sports	60% (3/5)	+25%	5

Politics15 bets
Hit rate
87% (13/15)
ROI
+25%
Other9 bets
Hit rate
78% (7/9)
ROI
-3%
Geopolitics6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
-23%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
+25%

Track record

77% hit · 27/35

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	$1.5k	91.0¢	Won
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$512	20.0¢	Lost
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Playoffs	Hanwha Life Esports	$79	78.6¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	No	$616	88.0¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$27	56.5¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	No	$600	85.9¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$367	83.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$33	19.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	$2.2k	86.1¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$2.2k	79.5¢	Won
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$1.4k	79.8¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$420	84.0¢	Won
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C	Paper Rex	$40	50.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$688	86.0¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$348	87.0¢	Won
Valorant: TYLOO vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C	TYLOO	$7	34.0¢	Lost
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner	Paper Rex	$27	21.2¢	Lost
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$509	79.3¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$705	78.6¢	Won
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Honvéd (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage	Honvéd	$4	12.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	No	$1.3k	85.9¢	Won
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	No	$870	87.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	$503	84.9¢	Won
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?	No	$317	62.4¢	Won
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?	Yes	$811	79.2¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	$2.8k	76.6¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	$620	48.1¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	No	$40	88.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	$50	81.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	No	$966	63.2¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	Yes	$219	26.8¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?	No	$996	79.4¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	$826	81.0¢	Won
Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?	No	$355	58.4¢	Lost
Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?	Yes	$473	56.3¢	Won

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Won
No$1.5k @ 91.0¢
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$512 @ 20.0¢
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK PlayoffsWon
Hanwha Life Esports$79 @ 78.6¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Won
No$616 @ 88.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$27 @ 56.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Won
No$600 @ 85.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$367 @ 83.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$33 @ 19.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Won
No$2.2k @ 86.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$2.2k @ 79.5¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 79.8¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Won
No$420 @ 84.0¢
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Champions Group CWon
Paper Rex$40 @ 50.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$688 @ 86.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$348 @ 87.0¢
Valorant: TYLOO vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Group CLost
TYLOO$7 @ 34.0¢
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Paper Rex - Map 2 WinnerLost
Paper Rex$27 @ 21.2¢
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?Won
Yes$509 @ 79.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$705 @ 78.6¢
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Honvéd (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group StageLost
Honvéd$4 @ 12.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Won
No$1.3k @ 85.9¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?Won
No$870 @ 87.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Won
Yes$503 @ 84.9¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?Won
No$317 @ 62.4¢
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?Won
Yes$811 @ 79.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Won
No$2.8k @ 76.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Won
No$620 @ 48.1¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Won
No$40 @ 88.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Won
Yes$50 @ 81.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Won
No$966 @ 63.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Lost
Yes$219 @ 26.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?Won
No$996 @ 79.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?Won
No$826 @ 81.0¢
Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?Lost
No$355 @ 58.4¢
Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?Won
Yes$473 @ 56.3¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$3.9k	94.8¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$3.0k	94.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Politics	No	$1.2k	91.1¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	97.1¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.1k	75.3¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	No	$1.0k	82.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$928	84.4¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$872	72.7¢
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$91	91.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$67	60.7¢

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$3.9k @ 94.8¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$3.0k @ 94.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Politics
No$1.2k @ 91.1¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 97.1¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
No$1.1k @ 75.3¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
No$1.0k @ 82.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$928 @ 84.4¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$872 @ 72.7¢
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$91 @ 91.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$67 @ 60.7¢